Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

The weather goes in cycles and sometimes these cycles are much much longer than five years. The Earth is over 5 billion years old and you are going to look at a five-year period and come to a conclusion.


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No, I've said many times maybe we flip to a better long term cycle at some point.  But were now going on 8 years of total worse snow period ever for our area, and its actually 13 years we've been in a very bad period, it was just interrupted briefly by 2014-2016.  But on the whole DC has had an identical snow climo to NC since 2010.  13 years is a long freaking time.  This horrible dreg period has now encompassed a huge portion of my adult life.  So when I say the trends are troubling they are, regardless of if at some possible future date that I may or may not even be here for, they flip back to a snowier cycle...I am more concerned with the cycle I currently have to live through.   

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No, I've said many times maybe we flip to a better long term cycle at some point. 

The clouds have been A LOT fluffier. low atmosphere cumulus. They are out now, they have been out just about every day with clouds for the last 2 years. That's a sign of near-ground ice crystals. But 2013-mid 2018 was really bad on the opposite side of this, all high atmosphere cirrus and stratus, so it takes time to change the long term state imo. 

[WesternFringe]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Whatever happens for the rest of this winter, we're going to consolidate the post mortem and its future implications in a single thread. I'd actually prefer if someone starts that now and starts putting the conversation there.  

I thought this was the post mortem thread when I logged on!

eta: heading over to other thread where we are talking about snow 3 days from now 

[Wxdood]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The clouds have been A LOT fluffier. low atmosphere cumulus. They are out now, they have been out just about every day with clouds for the last 2 years. That's a sign of near-ground ice crystals. But 2013-mid 2018 was really bad on the opposite side of this, so it takes time to change the long term state imo. 

That is very interesting.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Ah, there's the hostility again. But why repeat yourself, good or bad? 
Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk
 

I don't intend to be hostile, just being direct, but I can see how its interpreted that way.  As for why repeat myself, because new evidence was offered.  And in this case there was a well thought out and good point made by someone I respect a lot, but I felt there was a logical refutation to that point and it was worth making it to add to the discourse.   

Respectfully, you could say the same thing regarding repetitive posts everytime the ensembles show some -3 stdv block and we get excited and post about how it looks favorable for snow.  Those are the same posts so why do we make them?  Because it's a new example so its technically new analysis.  But if your point is this topic has been proven and needs no further evidence or argumentation, I might even agree with that, but some on here definitely do not, and I admit I am argumentative, I am a former debate coach lol,  so here we are.   

I will refrain from further response to this topic in this thread though since now we arent talking about the pattern we are talking about talking about the pattern which is off topic and I will reply there.  

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The clouds have been A LOT fluffier. low atmosphere cumulus. They are out now, they have been out just about every day with clouds for the last 2 years. That's a sign of near-ground ice crystals. But 2013-mid 2018 was really bad on the opposite side of this, all high atmosphere cirrus and stratus, so it takes time to change the long term state imo. 

So we need to all use less fabric softener, WTF are you saying?  Can you translate that please.  

[blizzardmeiser]

32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ehh it's not odd. It's depressing snow news and folks have their reactions and just have to deal with bad news their own way. It's ain't you, lol Just a classic "Don't shoot the messenger". 

Bottom line is we're all gonna have to find a way to live with whatever the new reality is...I mean, what else can we do? I still think after some more time we'll kinda get used to it and be that much more appreciative of what we get. Just gotta let go of the loftier snow notions, it seems...

Models cant get next week right, don't worry about next winter. Not worth it. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So we need to all use less fabric softener, WTF are you saying?  Can you translate that please.  

Look out the window. The clouds are beautiful. I see purples, with pinks from the sun, fluffy low-atmosphere cumulus. They started appearing more frequently in 2021-2022 and really have been around every day with clouds (Summer too) for the last 2 years. No one has noticed? They are much different from the clouds in the sky every day several years ago.  Kind of the same as how storms used to climb 40,000-50,000 ft in the atmosphere in the 1990s, but now they mostly make it to 15,000-20,000 ft. And everyone just blankly says its climate change. The recent happenings (cloud formation) are more conducive of a +PNA, I guess (more pressure systems)?

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I thought the "but seriously" would identify that the previous line in my post was a joke.  I agree with your viewpoint.  

Personally I welcome CC.  Snow climo in SoMD sucks ass as it is, if I can't have any, nobody else can.  And warmer weather means more moths.  

my bad 

[osfan24]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Look out the window. The clouds are beautiful. I see purples, with pinks from the sun, fluffy low-atmosphere cumulus. They started appearing more frequently in 2021-2022 and really have been around every day with clouds (Summer too) for the last 2 years. No one has noticed? They are much different from the clouds in the sky every day several years ago.  That's more conducive of a +PNA, I guess?

Chuck on that good stuff today after the disappointing snow.

[EHoffman]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Look out the window. The clouds are beautiful. I see purples, with pinks from the sun, fluffy low-atmosphere cumulus. They started appearing more frequently in 2021-2022 and really have been around every day with clouds (Summer too) for the last 2 years. No one has noticed? They are much different from the clouds in the sky every day several years ago.  Kind of the same as how storms used to climb 40,000-50,000 ft in the atmosphere in the 1990s, but now they mostly make it to 15,000-20,000 ft. And everyone just blankly says its climate change. The recent happenings (clouds) are more conducive of a +PNA, I guess?

Am I on mushrooms on something? I feel high reading this

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

You never heard of The Panic Room?

 

But seriously, extrapolating out, how long til we have the climo of the Everglades?  At least pythons are something to look forward to.   

Don't forget the alligators (not crocodiles!)

 

Let's get the jump and start a capture / removal / eradication service now.  We'll be rich.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

I'm kind of split on it all. I obviously believe our climate, like everyones, is changing. I just don't know if I believe it's changing that drastically, that quickly. I don't know if that's logical or if that's my emotions hoping it's not the case. One thing that's definitely true is that ever since this region started keeping statistical records, our winters go through some serious ebbs and flows. I still think it's possible that we're just in a very bad stretch, and we will naturally rebound, but I admit the longer things stay like this, the more I believe we've turned a corner with the change of climate. It's just a painful reality to face if that is inevitable. 

This part seems topical... and the truth is I just don't know, which is why I continue to analyze it and try to compile evidence one way or the other.  I am pretty sure the data supports that we have warmed and it has decreased our snow climo compared to 50 or 20 years ago.  But what I don't know with any conviction how much.  I also believe we are in a shorter term (decadal maybe) bad cycle and we will likely have a better period at some point in the near (hopefully) future.  But how soon?  And how much better?  Again I don't know, which is why I continue to analyze.  But recent evidence is unfortunately hinting that maybe its worse than I thought. 

 

And this is where this relates to the discussion about RIGHT NOW and this winter.  This year is exhibit A, Baltimore averages over 40" of snow in -QBO El Ninos' and it looks like we aren't going to get close to those numbers unfortunately.  Maybe this year is just a fluke as @Bob Chillbelieves.  That is entirely possible.  I respect him tremendously and frankly learned a lot from him, he was doing this with expertise before I knew what I was doing!  But I don't know.  I am just a little more pessimistic about how much of it is a "fluke" that's all.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulus_cloud

Big observable visual differences in the last few decades. Just pay attention. Cumulus is a sign of the lower atmosphere holding more ice crystals. 

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Don't forget the crocodiles.

 

Let's get the jump and start a capture / removal / eradication service now.  We'll be rich.

Set up a GoFundMe.  Last chance for weenies to get in early before our inevitable IPO.  I may know a few venture capital titans...

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This year is exhibit A, Baltimore averages over 40" of snow in -QBO El Ninos' and it looks like we aren't going to get close to those numbers unfortunately.  

We did get 3 Stratosphere warmings. When there isn't much data, it helps to know what the main function of a thing is. The QBO/ENSO hits the 10mb level with stronger or weaker vortex, and it's a strong effect historically. We hit that effect this year, but things like Hadley Cell expansion and the multi-year La Nina state did not allow us to fully maximize that favorable system. 

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

La Nina is not a function of climate change, and that is what the problem recently has been. 

https://ibb.co/34tJQXn

2019 was a nino, 2020 was enso neutral,2023 was neutral, this year is a nino.  Yes the atmosphere has been in a nina like base state for 8 years abut we have not actually been in a nina for 8 straight years.  We have had 4 ninas in 8 years.  That excuse is starting to wear thin with me.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

2019 was a nino, 2020 was enso neutral, this year is a nino.  Yes the atmosphere has been in a nina like base state for 8 years abut we have not actually been in a nina for 8 straight years.  

It's a decadal La Nina-state. You are calling it -PDO, but the same extent of Pacific High pressure has hit the Hadley-mid latitude Cell in the southern hemisphere as the northern hemisphere. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

30 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

With a +QBO 90% likely, no less. That with Stronger La Nina favors +AO conditions, and I'm just saying the last time we had that happen it hit 80 degrees in January.. that's kind of a baseline, although of course it could get cooler/colder at times. 

It hit 80 this January too, so...

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

It hit 80 this January too, so...

Yeah during +3std +AO.  Strong Nina/+QBO strengthens the 10mb vortex about 70% of the time, just like Strong Nino/-QBO weakens the 10mb vortex 70-75% of the time. That 4-day example this year is 3:1 more likely to be an atmospheric state next Winter, that's all. 

[Snowguy66]

Here we go, global warming alarmist. I heard today that Valentine’s Day and the sale of flowers increases the worlds carbon footprint. That is the problem I have with the global warming wackos out there. Instead of focusing on valid global warming concerns there are cuckoos out there that are fixated on this kind of crap. Geez I was having a good day until I saw these posts. The fact that we have had snowless winters. The last few years is not because of global warming.


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[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We did get 3 Stratosphere warmings. When there isn't much data, it helps to know what the main function of a thing is. The QBO/ENSO hits the 10mb level with stronger or weaker vortex, and it's a strong effect historically. We hit that effect this year, but things like Hadley Cell expansion and the multi-year La Nina state did not allow us to fully maximize that favorable system. 

You just said what I said but in a different way 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's a decadal La Nina-state. You are calling it -PDO, but the same extent of Pacific High pressure has hit the Hadley-mid latitude Cell in the southern hemisphere as the northern hemisphere. 

The 1960's were a -PDO, 2017-2019 were a positive PDO,  the PDO alone is not an excuse for what is happening recently.  

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The 1960's were a -PDO, 2017-2019 were a positive PDO,  the PDO alone is not an excuse for what is happening recently.  

Question: Do you think whatever caused the blocking to be unstable this winter is the same thing that's afflicted us the last decade? (I mean we frickin' roller coastered from deeply negative to deeply positive and back again...what the actual heck?) I've heard folks on here mention things "destructively interfering with the niño". Now I'm jot gonna pretend to understand that, but I'm wondering if all the problems in historically favorable regimes can be traced back to uh...the one thing.

[stormy]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The 1960's were a -PDO, 2017-2019 were a positive PDO,  the PDO alone is not an excuse for what is happening recently.  

Psu, you are a smart man. Regarding, "what is happening recently".  Tell me, what is your solution to "what is happening"........................ What should we do?????   I am very serious...........

[snowmagnet]

Isn’t there a climate/is it going to snow again thread? If not, we need one.  
 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

is it going to snow again thread  
 

There is, but that question has been answered by this season.

The real question is will there ever be another 2' snowstorm again?

[nmyers1204]

19 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

Here we go, global warming alarmist. I heard today that Valentine’s Day and the sale of flowers increases the worlds carbon footprint. That is the problem I have with the global warming wackos out there. Instead of focusing on valid global warming concerns there are cuckoos out there that are fixated on this kind of crap. Geez I was having a good day until I saw these posts. The fact that we have had snowless winters. The last few years is not because of global warming.


.

I honestly get confused as to why people deny the reality in front of them. Are ya worried about being accountable (ie humans at fault)? Or are ya thinking Jesus is just gonna slide on down and fix it? 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

There is, but that question has been answered by this season.

The real question is will there ever be another 2' snowstorm again?

Yes, just probably not this year or next year. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2023 was neutral

No it wasn't, last year was a nina. It was the last year of our first triple dip nina in 70 years.