hobbes9 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, IronTy said: JB says GFS too far North for Saturday. He likes the direct hit for DMV, I think based on the AI model. Anybody know where to get that? Euro GraphCast is what he's talking about. You can also read more about it here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 lets get it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 20 hours ago, snowmagnet said: I don’t understand why people have given up on the rest of winter when the models can’t predict anything in less than 24 hours. I think folks overthink things when it comes to snow and presume too much based on every model they see. Wild mood swings over snow indicates something else going on not related to weather. Our historical sample size of patterns on a geological time scale is minuscule at best...long term planetary/solar cycles and CC are impossible to predict long term. Changes are not neatly packaged for convenience and results vary. I don't envy anyone in the field trying to analyze or give projections based on models at this point. Also, snow has nothing to do with winter. That association only comes from places that get snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 18 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Not yet but the trends are not encouraging The MJO stalling and then suddenly tanking instead of going through 8/1/2 seems to have timed up with the collapse of the pattern on guidance. Something is destructive interfering with a Nino pattern. It happened in 2019 also. Remember how all the guidance looked epic at day 15 all winter. The guidance is based on sound science. There is a reason both years this happened. The guidance saw what we saw when we made snowy winter forecasts and expected the typical response. But something in 2019 and this year seems to be running interference. That block in Jan collapsed so fast. It’s almost unheard of after a SSW for that kind of block to break down so fast. I wonder if Chuck isn’t into something with the expanded Hadley cell disrupting things. You know how @brooklynwx99 was saying the gfs progressive bias was likely causing it to miss the block. That logic was sound. A more progressive jet would destructively interfere with blocking. But the expanded Hadley cell is also causing a more progressive jet. In the end maybe that was the right solution and the gfs bias allowed it to pick up on it. What is this Hadley Cell? Not familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The Euro for PD3 (that night) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Bleak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Can the Gulf Stream hurry up and collapse? I want snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 49 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said: I think folks overthink things when it comes to snow and presume too much based on every model they see. Wild mood swings over snow indicates something else going on not related to weather. Our historical sample size of patterns on a geological time scale is minuscule at best...long term planetary/solar cycles and CC are impossible to predict long term. Changes are not neatly packaged for convenience and results vary. I don't envy anyone in the field trying to analyze or give projections based on models at this point. Also, snow has nothing to do with winter. That association only comes from places that get snow. I think some of it is psychological. There was so much hype about this perfect period coming up. People saying it had the same look as February 2010, etc. I am not saying I or others expected a repeat, but I think we all thought we would be tracking non-stop and there would be some chances at a HECS. That's just all vanished, and given it is basically looking out to the end of February on the models, that is grim. Also, I thought bobchill had a great point about how a winter can have a personality, and this one has been one of missed opportunities and things really never just quite lining up for us. Is that something that is suddenly going to change? Maybe! But probably not, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I think some of it is psychological. There was so much hype about this perfect period coming up. People saying it had the same look as February 2010, etc. I am not saying I or others expected a repeat, but I think we all thought we would be tracking non-stop and there would be some chances at a HECS. That's just all vanished, and given it is basically looking out to the end of February on the models, that is grim. Also, I thought bobchill had a great point about how a winter can have a personality, and this one has been one of missed opportunities and things really never just quite lining up for us. Is that something that is suddenly going to change? Maybe! But probably not, lol. We could also make the argument we overachieved in the storms we did receive. 3 times we saw a southern trend verify. When does that ever happen. I agree some folks were throwing out Feb 2010 but it was still always a few weeks away. So we lost a pattern that we only thought would happen 15 days out. Not the same as losing a storm within a few days. Besides was Chill ever on board for this pattern? Someone said only take it serious when Chill shows up. Some truth to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said: We could also make the argument we overachieved in the storms we did receive. 3 times we saw a southern trend verify. When does that ever happen. I agree some folks were throwing out Feb 2010 but it was still always a few weeks away. So we lost a pattern that we only thought would happen 15 days out. Not the same as losing a storm within a few days. Besides was Chill ever on board for this pattern? Someone said only take it serious when Chill shows up. Some truth to that. Eh, I think we overachieved in those two January events. This one trended south but it was a nothing down here. I got maybe .3 of snow. Maybe if you were closer to the MD/PA line. But in a Nino, having two northern stream events give you 4-5 inches each and basically nothing else is depressing. I also think the pattern being shown vanishing was so frustrating because the pattern was unfolding quite similarly to other Nino's where you get a January thaw and then things reload. Now, they maybe were reloading a couple weeks later than usual, but it followed the general pattern of our good years. Plus, PSU knows his stuff and is always optimistic yet cautious but really liked this period. He isn't usually wrong. Maybe things turn around and we still get lucky and he turns out right. I would just like my kids, who are now 9 and 6, to actually get to enjoy a real snowstorm as a kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, Ji said: lets get it Mean track to our south on the GEFS. Not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Eh, I think we overachieved in those two January events. This one trended south but it was a nothing down here. I got maybe .3 of snow. Maybe if you were closer to the MD/PA line. But in a Nino, having two northern stream events give you 4-5 inches each and basically nothing else is depressing. I also think the pattern being shown vanishing was so frustrating because the pattern was unfolding quite similarly to other Nino's where you get a January thaw and then things reload. Now, they maybe were reloading a couple weeks later than usual, but it followed the general pattern of our good years. Plus, PSU knows his stuff and is always optimistic yet cautious but really liked this period. He isn't usually wrong. Maybe things turn around and we still get lucky and he turns out right. I would just like my kids, who are now 9 and 6, to actually get to enjoy a real snowstorm as a kid. It did look that way but it changed pretty quickly. I think if we get to March 10th with nothing then its a concern but I still believe we have opportunities over the next few weeks. Some might be disappointed if not a HECS but I'm good with a few more decent events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 EPS with a west track/miller B look for the 23rd timeframe. Not the best look for now but a big jump south from 00z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, AlexD1990 said: Can the Gulf Stream hurry up and collapse? I want snow. If that happens during your lifetime you may be very disappointed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, stormy said: If that happens during your lifetime you may be very disappointed! I've been reading up on that and it seems like you have to move to London to live in a snow town after GS collapse. Seems like all we get is higher sea level here. We toss. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 10 minutes ago, poolz1 said: EPS with a west track/miller B look for the 23rd timeframe. Not the best look for now but a big jump south from 00z. If there's a nice storm between the 22nd-25th, I'm naming my first-born child after PSU lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Steve25 said: If there's a nice storm between the 22nd-25th, I'm naming my first-born child after PSU lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Signs that it could get very warm in the last few days of the month.. maybe 60s https://ibb.co/YBPYLdV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 29 minutes ago, stormy said: If that happens during your lifetime you may be very disappointed! at the risk of mentioning Babar, I think it probably is...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: at the risk of mentioning Babar, I think it probably is...... Babar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: I think some of it is psychological. There was so much hype about this perfect period coming up. People saying it had the same look as February 2010, etc. I am not saying I or others expected a repeat, but I think we all thought we would be tracking non-stop and there would be some chances at a HECS. That's just all vanished, and given it is basically looking out to the end of February on the models, that is grim. Also, I thought bobchill had a great point about how a winter can have a personality, and this one has been one of missed opportunities and things really never just quite lining up for us. Is that something that is suddenly going to change? Maybe! But probably not, lol. Bob said he thought it was a warning sign when the ao went way up to positive after December but kept it quiet...Man I kinda wish he had said something! I know he didn't want to send folks cliff-diving, and I get that...but at the same time, better to do that early to have more reasonable expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Babar? Wasn't there a children's book about an elephant named Babar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Babar? Babar the elephant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, Miss Pixee said: What is this Hadley Cell? Not familiar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 hours ago, yoda said: What dates am I looking at for his storm? It's the wave after the PD3 wave. But different guidance differs on exactly when that is, based on how progressive they are. Also some runs have ejected two weaker waves instead of one stronger one in that timeframe. But sometime in the Feb 22-24 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 29 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Wasn't there a children's book about an elephant named Babar? 1 B or 2? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Signs that it could get very warm in the last few days of the month.. maybe 60s https://ibb.co/YBPYLdV Thanks chuck. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, colonel717 said: 1 B or 2? Two, but they're not together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 @Bob Chill everything you said regarding this winter is 100% accurate. And in a vacuum I agree. The problem is when you zoom out and take the last 5 years as a whole, things start to become a little more alarming. It's like a coach who at the end of a disappointing game where one of his players fumbles the ball is saying how, its just one game and flukes happen and yada yada yada...and that is totally true and you would never bench a player for one fumble. But if it happens 5 games in a row... I ran the numbers out of morbid self loathing a couple weeks ago. Since 2010 DC has had the snow climo of central NC. Since 2016 DC has had the snow climo of central SC! The main reason for this is its just been too warm. Warm months are outnumbering cold ones 3-1. Perfect track waves are tending to end up rain more and more often. It's too warm is the common thread. Yes we can debate the different specific reason one week was too warm v another. Maybe one time the NAO was positive. Another time the pac was crap. Many times its been both! But sometimes the patterns been fine and it was still to warm lol. Again, we can zoom in and get stuck in the details and find legitimate specific reasons why one period or another didnt work and find ways a storm could have been snow if this that or the other had gone better. But zoom out and take everything holistically and I think the trends are more troubling and have a common theme. 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill everything you said regarding this winter is 100% accurate. And in a vacuum I agree. The problem is when you zoom out and take the last 5 years as a whole, things start to become a little more alarming. It's like a coach who at the end of a disappointing game where one of his players fumbles the ball is saying how, its just one game and flukes happen and yada yada yada...and that is totally true and you would never bench a player for one fumble. But if it happens 5 games in a row... I ran the numbers out of morbid self loathing a couple weeks ago. Since 2010 DC has had the snow climo of central NC. Since 2016 DC has had the snow climo of central SC! The main reason for this is its just been too warm. Warm months are outnumbering cold ones 3-1. Perfect track waves are tending to end up rain more and more often. It's too warm is the common thread. Yes we can debate the different specific reason one week was too warm v another. Maybe one time the NAO was positive. Another time the pac was crap. Many times its been both! But sometimes the patterns been fine and it was still to warm lol. Again, we can zoom in and get stuck in the details and find legitimate specific reasons why one period or another didnt work and find ways a storm could have been snow if this that or the other had gone better. But zoom out and take everything holistically and I think the trends are more troubling and have a common theme. You've said this a thousand different ways throughout winter. I get what you're saying. It's too warm. Nothings really going to change that at this point, though. Short of a Yellowstone supervolcano, the climate is going to continue to warm, and its just going to get harder to snow. but constantly reiterating that doesn't seem to be accomplishing much other than depressing yourself; and everyone who reads it. Maybe more people should read it, accept it, and move on(in some cases quite literally, somewhere further north...) and adjust expectations appropriately moving forward. As you said a few weeks ago, if things didnt work out. Well, looks like we are there., 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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