psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Sometimes when the mathematical variability is so strong, it's worth considering. Ideally, weather forecasting should outperform Energy Futures because you would think we have better methods.. they are speculating. but that's not been the case for a while. I'm really surprised that the global models just had El Nino-climo, when we have had such a strong -PNA for the last 6 years, and the El Nino was not correlating with it April-Oct. With that strong 24th -PNA I just showed in the previous post, it looks like we may come in near neutral in the PNA region for February, which is in line with this record streak that we are in.. But the global models had like a -120dm to -150dm +PNA for the month.. Except that’s the polar opposite ridge trough configuration as the plot I posted that you also called a -pna. You can’t just call every bad pattern here -pna. It might not have been good for us but that full latitude ridge in the west I posted is most definitely a +pna. The region you were focusing on is more the epo domain. There is some overlap and ideally we want a -epo +pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Except that’s the polar opposite ridge trough configuration as the plot I posted that you also called a -pna. You can’t just call every bad pattern here -pna. It might not have been good for us but that full latitude ridge in the west I posted is most definitely a +pna. The region you were focusing on is more the epo domain. There is some overlap and ideally we want a -epo +pna. The main region for PNA is in the N. Pacific Ocean south of the Aleutian islands.. Both, or all 3 images shown so far had a ridge there (-PNA). I don't call what's happening over alaska or gulf of alaska, pna, although the CPC does include that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Here's 18z GEFS.. just a crazy ridge south of the Aleutian Islandshttps://ibb.co/9Wycxzf Here's something I posted a few ago, https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY With a Strong El Nino at the surface, and negative in the subsurface, and now +250dm -PNA appearing, it hits this +correlation, which I have found is better than surface conditions (in the historical dataset). That's a really warm pattern setting up there on the LR GEFS with the EPO going + too.. But is it right? Isn't the EPS colder? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 10 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: But is it right? Isn't the EPS colder? ENSO subsurface is showing a -3c pocket now in the central region at -200m. In my research/experience, that has a pretty high correlation to the N. Pacific pattern at 0-time (backs the -PNA idea). Plus we are in some strong multi-year states with that 500mb feature in Feb/March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 EPS looked decent for the PSU storm 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Big move on the weeklies, showing above normal temps 2-3 weeks from now. Looks like we’ll have a quick transition to spring after this wintry week coming up. Still shocks me how the long range is almost void of any snow for much of CONUS for the next few weeks. Even in abysmal winters of 2012,2020,2023, at least someone was getting the goods. This is just downright strange, like a winter without a winter (save for a couple weeks in January). Colder conditions look likely for the west, which could lead to some snow there over the next few weeks, but holy moly has this been an abrupt change in models for the long range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: EPS looked decent for the PSU storm 850s right around average (-2 to -3) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Can I call dibs on the early March window? I really like the 4th-7th. Mostly based off vibes. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Models are struggling inside 12 hours with the storm on our doorstep and people are losing their minds over individual long range runs 1-2+ weeks out? Gimme a break. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 EPS has quietly been improving for this weekend. Tentatively looks cold enough. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Models are struggling inside 12 hours with the storm on our doorstep and people are losing their minds over individual long range runs 1-2+ weeks out? Gimme a break. If they cut every model off at 5 days and decommission the weeklies, that would save me a hell lot of time and grief. Just pull the plug already 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 13, 2024 Author Share Posted February 13, 2024 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Models are struggling inside 12 hours with the storm on our doorstep and people are losing their minds over individual long range runs 1-2+ weeks out? Gimme a break. Well when the favorable shift has been 15 days away for the last 20 days… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Well when the favorable shift has been 15 days away for the last 20 days…The only favorable shifts we’re seeing this year are inside 24-36 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The main region for PNA is in the N. Pacific Ocean south of the Aleutian islands.. Both, or all 3 images shown so far had a ridge there (-PNA). I don't call what's happening over alaska or gulf of alaska, pna, although the CPC does include that. You can’t ignore the western N American part of the PNA equation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: EPS looked decent for the PSU storm Strongest signal it’s had yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Translation: "That's my boy!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Noticed this trend the last few runs...what do y'all think? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Noticed this trend the last few runs...what do y'all think? i think its going out to sea 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 1 minute ago, Ji said: i think its going out to sea Lol I mean not for this run, but I just noticed there was more interaction and closer...was wondering what happens if that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You can’t ignore the western N American part of the PNA equation though. Yeah but the Pacific dominates Only a 0.3 correlation in the South-SE, and it's technically all 3 areas. I'd rather just go to the source.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Strongest signal it’s had yet. dont sleep on a moderate threat saturday 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol I mean not for this run, but I just noticed there was more interaction and closer...was wondering what happens if that trend continues. i dont see a trend...sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol I mean not for this run, but I just noticed there was more interaction and closer...was wondering what happens if that trend continues. focus on Saturday moderate wave and PSU storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 dont sleep on a moderate threat saturday CMC has it… C-2”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 PSU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 gfs with almost the ultimate phase for PSU storm. make that work out and call it a winter. I love seeing a big fat bowling ball well to our south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol I mean not for this run, but I just noticed there was more interaction and closer...was wondering what happens if that trend continues. if the PD storm is going to happen...the GGEM looks way better than the awful GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 0z EPS v GEFS for Saturday. GEPS is closer to the EPS. If everything breaks right, maybe a light to moderate event for at least part of the region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Strongest signal it’s had yet. 0z more of a cutter look booooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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