snowmagnet Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I think everyone is focused on the resurrection of tonight's storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Even Brooklyn has vanished.His area is about to get 10-15” tomorrow. He’s probably focusing on that in his area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 13 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Even Brooklyn has vanished. He's probably busy with tonight's event. IIRC, he works for OKX and they're about to go into warning mode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 45 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Yup. Cautionary tale for putting too much stock in long term models. I respect people who tell us what they’re seeing with the LR stuff good or bad. Sometimes it doesn’t turn out. Better than people who say nothing and then say “I told you so”. Hard to tell you so if one has said nothing or just been negative OR positive with no or little backing. Not you personally as I have no idea what you’ve forecasted haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I respect people who tell us what they’re seeing with the LR stuff good or bad. Sometimes it doesn’t turn out. Better than people who say nothing and then say “I told you so”. Hard to tell you so if one has said nothing or just been negative OR positive with no or little backing. Not you personally as I have no idea what you’ve forecasted haha. Yeah you have people in the Panic Room just completely trashing this thread. Like I get being frustrated, but don't sit here and act like you don't have the better minds in here doing great analysis. In weather all you can talk about is what you see modeled...and then you go from there. Sometimes it will work out, sometimes it won't...but don't say it's useless just out of frustration. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 27 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I respect people who tell us what they’re seeing with the LR stuff good or bad. Sometimes it doesn’t turn out. Better than people who say nothing and then say “I told you so”. Hard to tell you so if one has said nothing or just been negative OR positive with no or little backing. Not you personally as I have no idea what you’ve forecasted haha. Agree though it is hard to put too much faith in them when we see so many changes over that time period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Euro is south of us for Saturday. A multi-model blend is probably a light hit for the metro area and points northward. eta…euro is dusting-2” for most of VA verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Yeah after I get some slop tomorrow morning I’m probably checking out myself unless something really pops. Pattern isn’t bad but we can’t seem to time anything up. Just making me frustrated so I’ll track from a distance Good luck rest of year…. Cya at 00z . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I don't get what's going on with this window in general...I mean is that the ceiling of potential here, or is this just one part of it? Sucks seeing all that moisture getting suppressed on these runs...although seems a bit less suppressed this time. I wonder what would happen if the ns wave were to slow down and dive in behind instead of going on top or ahead. Complicated setup? I think there’s been potential for phasing the entire time with this, but outside of a few random op runs, there hasn’t been much support for it. Mostly guidance has suggested that in some way the northern stream squashes the southern wave. For now seems our best chance for snow is with the northern shortwave alone. Honestly it’s not much different than the second storm of our January week of winter. Can we get another short range favorable trend?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 36 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yeah after I get some slop tomorrow morning I’m probably checking out myself unless something really pops. Pattern isn’t bad but we can’t seem to time anything up. Just making me frustrated so I’ll track from a distance Good luck rest of year…. Cya at 00z . Damn. We lost a Colonel yall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 i just dont understand what happened.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 27 minutes ago, Ji said: i just dont understand what happened.... Mostly it seems we don’t have a huge 4SD retrograding -NAO anymore. The pattern this upcoming weekend and through the following week still looks “decent/workable/fine”. Some periodic +PNA, continuing -AO…it’s not a bad pattern by any means! Just doesn’t look epic anymore. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Mostly it seems we don’t have a huge 4SD retrograding -NAO anymore. The pattern this upcoming weekend and through the following week still looks “decent/workable/fine”. Some periodic +PNA, continuing -AO…it’s not a bad pattern by any means! Just doesn’t look epic anymore. So you're saying that Chuck was right. Crazy to think that the monthlies and weeklies and ensembles were all on board for AGES only up until last week, but now it's all convoluted and far less of a given that we'll even see a portion of that look when the time comes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Mostly it seems we don’t have a huge 4SD retrograding -NAO anymore. The pattern this upcoming weekend and through the following week still looks “decent/workable/fine”. Some periodic +PNA, continuing -AO…it’s not a bad pattern by any means! Just doesn’t look epic anymore. 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: So you're saying that Chuck was right. Crazy to think that the monthlies and weeklies and ensembles were all on board for AGES only up until last week, but now it's all convoluted and far less of a given that we'll even see a portion of that look when the time comes. Yeah, maybe we should've listened to Chuck. If you can get past the Chuck-speak and really understand what he's saying, you'll see his uncanny ability to make calls that seemed farfetched and then come true later. And we did get a beast -NAO block in January... it was surprising how quickly it fell apart. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 23 minutes ago, mattie g said: So you're saying that Chuck was right. Crazy to think that the monthlies and weeklies and ensembles were all on board for AGES only up until last week, but now it's all convoluted and far less of a given that we'll even see a portion of that look when the time comes. Chuck may get Forecaster of the Year for this season if things keep trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Mostly it seems we don’t have a huge 4SD retrograding -NAO anymore. The pattern this upcoming weekend and through the following week still looks “decent/workable/fine”. Some periodic +PNA, continuing -AO…it’s not a bad pattern by any means! Just doesn’t look epic anymore. eps must not of been horrible for next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, IronTy said: Chuck may get Forecaster of the Year for this season if things keep trending. i thought chuck was on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, Ji said: eps must not of been horrible for next week Somehow e33 will be right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 19 minutes ago, Ji said: i thought chuck was on board Chuck was skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 29 minutes ago, Ji said: eps must not of been horrible for next week Nice. Still a lot of members with more snow after tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Chuck was skeptical Yep. He was saying that nat gas futures were indicating a warm winter ahead. I thought that was odd, yet here we are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, Heisy said: Yeah after I get some slop tomorrow morning I’m probably checking out myself unless something really pops. Pattern isn’t bad but we can’t seem to time anything up. Just making me frustrated so I’ll track from a distance Good luck rest of year…. Cya at 00z . 47 years in VA area and now 10 years in PNW gotta say its painful to watch how many yuck winter seasons back there. I remember some great years with extended snow cover and cold. Particularly when I lived near Winchester. Seems like even when it does snow there its gone so fast. Even places like Canaan Valley where I could almost always drive and get into some snow are suffering with brown and bare winters. Strong odds I'll be living mostly in VA again when I retire. Have made some deep connections out here and at least one of my kids looks very rooted in here so I'll be able to visit Cascade snow country again to escape the chilly east coast rain storms that seem to be the new norm. Good luck the rest of the season! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yep. He was saying that nat gas futures were indicating a warm winter ahead. I thought that was odd, yet here we are. its not hard to predict a warm winter 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Ji said: its not hard to predict a warm winter It is when everyone is harping at an all time epic pattern at the same time. Got to give him credit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said: It is when everyone is harping at an all time epic pattern at the same time. Got to give him credit. i think it was more for snow than cold. You can have warm winters with alot of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12 minutes ago, Ji said: its not hard to predict a warm winter What matters is what's right, not what's hard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: I think he’s just tracking the actual snowstorm that his subforum is going to get. But yeah… eerily quiet. Probably for the best we focus on tomorrow’s oddness before opening this thread again anyway. yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 34 minutes ago, Ji said: i think it was more for snow than cold. You can have warm winters with alot of snow But you can't have a lot of snow without days that feature some cold air. At Dulles, 57 days have been AN and 17 days have been BN since 12.1. And that is against the 1991+ normals which are way warmer than recent past decades. Its been an overwhelmingly warm and wet winter, blame it on whatever you want but we have seen Nino's like this in the past and should only expect them to be even worse today given the overwhelming warm bias to begin with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I don’t understand why people have given up on the rest of winter when the models can’t predict anything in less than 24 hours. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I don’t understand why people have given up on the rest of winter when the models can’t predict anything in less than 24 hours. Its because they were expecting a big dog because it looked that way a couple weeks ago, and now that's no longer the case and many are very disappointed and frustrated. I am, too, but I'm not calling the end of winter because there will still be chances after tomorrow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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