SnowenOutThere Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 1:21 AM, Ji said: What is this? Expand Comeback time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 1:21 AM, Ji said: What is this? Expand It's a map of the 18z eps 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 1:29 AM, aldie 22 said: It's a map of the 18z eps Expand Talk to me goose. WTF happened. Those epic “wow” GEFS runs. Never before seen runs….seems to be imploding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 1:47 AM, BristowWx said: Talk to me goose. WTF happened. Those epic “wow” GEFS runs. Never before seen runs….seems to be imploding. Expand Agree. For days we heard it was an all time great pattern. Crickets now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 1:57 AM, blizzardmeiser said: Agree. For days we heard it was an all time great pattern. Crickets now. Expand Models lost the nao basically 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 2:02 AM, Terpeast said: Models lost the nao basically Expand Unfortunate. So what’s next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 2:02 AM, Terpeast said: Models lost the nao basically Expand Shit. Just checked all 3 ensembles and all show what looks to be a full latitude ridge connecting up into the Nao domain towards the end of February. If that happens I guess it's definitely ovah. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 2:02 AM, Terpeast said: Models lost the nao basically Expand All the Models have been garbage all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 2:11 AM, Chris78 said: Shit. Just checked all 3 ensembles and all show what looks to be a full latitude ridge connecting up into the Nao domain towards the end of February. If that happens I guess it's definitely ovah.And that can be trusted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 2:13 AM, Ji said: And that can be trusted?No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 2:13 AM, Ji said: And that can be trusted? Expand No. That's why I said if that happens. But we've already had this happen multiple times over the couple years so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 2:04 AM, blizzardmeiser said: Unfortunate. So what’s next? Expand No idea, and have no confidence in the LR models either. They missed the wintry week in Jan, and underestimated the “relax” period afterward. They were honking the great pattern, and then it fell apart so quickly. Doesn’t mean they’re more correct now, and ironically the GEPS is now the warmest of the three when it’s usually biased coldest. modeling has been a crapshoot this winter is all I can say 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 2:04 AM, blizzardmeiser said: Unfortunate. So what’s next? Expand Summer 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 2:26 AM, Terpeast said: No idea, and have no confidence in the LR models either. They missed the wintry week in Jan, and underestimated the “relax” period afterward. They were honking the great pattern, and then it fell apart so quickly. Doesn’t mean they’re more correct now, and ironically the GEPS is now the warmest of the three when it’s usually biased coldest. modeling has been a crapshoot this winter is all I can say Expand Of course they're more correct now, they're closer in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 1:21 AM, Ji said: What is this? Expand Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 1:47 AM, BristowWx said: Talk to me goose. WTF happened. Those epic “wow” GEFS runs. Never before seen runs….seems to be imploding. Expand Don't think, just DO IT Nino! South that SNE bliz back here in the DMV where it belongs! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 WSW up for Garrett. Shocked the crap outta me. Maybe some last minute hope elsewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 im taking the 00z icon, the 12z JMA for next saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 LR GFS has a signal for temps in the 60's for our epic pattern period. Hell.. sounds like good news. Anything but the 40's and low 50's with 2-3 inches of rain every few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 11:56 AM, dailylurker said: LR GFS has a signal for temps in the 60's for our epic pattern period. Hell.. sounds like good news. Anything but the 40's and low 50's with 2-3 inches of rain every few days. Expand Good, bring on spring. And 60s are respectable temps at least vs 40s and 50s which are crap. Looking forward to some sustained good days. Maybe once the Sistene Chapel period finally kicks in we'll be basking in 70s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Eps signal for above normal precip below normal temps around Feb 24Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 11:56 AM, dailylurker said: LR GFS has a signal for temps in the 60's for our epic pattern period. Hell.. sounds like good news. Anything but the 40's and low 50's with 2-3 inches of rain every few days. Expand Upper 40s was always going to be the best case for temps by that time of year. But we still need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 12:44 PM, Ji said: Eps signal for above normal precip below normal temps around Feb 24 Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Expand This weekend/early next week is still on the table. Guidance still hasn't resolved the storm for tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 1:00 PM, CAPE said: This weekend/early next week is still on the table. Guidance still hasn't resolved the storm for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 1:20 PM, Ji said: Expand Need this one before the pattern changes to spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 12, 2024 Author Share Posted February 12, 2024 CWG is starting to second guess themselves. If PD fails I think they might pronounce last rites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 2:33 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: CWG is starting to second guess themselves. If PD fails I think they might pronounce last rites.Honestly, any winter that starts slow (like this one) is an immediate flag to me. I’m not surprised at all by this outcome so far and was one of the reasons I went low on snowfall.Now watch us get a March hecs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 2:59 PM, 87storms said: Honestly, any winter that starts slow (like this one) is an immediate flag to me. I’m not surprised at all by this outcome so far and was one of the reasons I went low on snowfall. Now watch us get a March hecs. Expand For us, delayed is denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 2:59 PM, 87storms said: Honestly, any winter that starts slow (like this one) is an immediate flag to me. I’m not surprised at all by this outcome so far and was one of the reasons I went low on snowfall. Now watch us get a March hecs. Expand The airports could still theoretically go climo+ but it was a red flag early on for the forecasted epic winter that we weren’t on the board by mid-December. I had posted this in the Panic thread back then, but winters like 1996, 2003 and 2010 always showed themselves early. Even the epic backloaded winters like 2015 had accumulating events in November, December and early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now