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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

JenkinsJinkies

By JenkinsJinkies,
in Mid Atlantic

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IronTy

IronTy

Posted
Posted
  On 2/11/2024 at 12:27 AM, clskinsfan said:

We arent even in the middle of the current interglacial yet. The planet will get way warmer before it happens. Although maybe we have sped it up.

Ice_ages2.gif

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Those glacial periods look pretty long and ominous (and cold).  I'll take global warming over that.  

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stormtracker
stormtracker

As many of you know, we have lost a lot of your comrades.  This is going to be a rough, trying and particularly dangerous situation developing as we wait for the pattern change.  There will be tempers

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

Good stuff. I know many are skeptical but there are reasons I’ve been so bullish even from what might seem an illogical range.  1) nao blocking has not failed us the last 8 years. Everything e

brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

then, you have the 2nd! and the 6th! and the 12th... and the 17th....... and the 20th

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted

As many of you know, we have lost a lot of your comrades.  This is going to be a rough, trying and particularly dangerous situation developing as we wait for the pattern change.  There will be tempers, frustration, inter-forum spats, deleted posts and (God I hope it doesn't come to this)...suspensions and bannings.  We've got to be strong.  Even with this said, we are going to lose many more in the coming week.   I have a few suggestions to remain strong in the absence of a clear threat to track.

  • Have a date night. Take your loved one or special person to a fancy restaurant such as Red Lobster, Denny's or ARBY'S.  
  • Take your kids to your Parent's.  And leave them there.  Forever.
  • Take up a hobby such as Legos, Stamp collecting, Onlyfans.
  • Go outside, touch grass.  And then grind it, roll it up and smoke it.

In all seriousness yall, we just gotta be patient.  I hate waiting too, but what choice do we have?  Nobody should be tearing apart mets and pros because we can't get snow.   We need these people.  All they are doing is giving you their expert opinion.  You know weather is unpredictable.  You knew what you were getting into.  There are no guarantees.  I'm frustrated too, but give it another week yall.  If we're not tracking something next weekend, then yeah...I get it.  If and when you do decide to fall, just go into the panic room and do it there.  I may be joining you, who knows?

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
  On 2/11/2024 at 12:59 AM, WxUSAF said:

Only 1 out of 51 with nothing 

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We're gonna do it son.  I'm feeling highly optimistic tonight.  Jack Daniels helped a little, ngl.   And for those who are gonna comment, I'm only doing Jack because it was left over from a party...and free.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 2/11/2024 at 1:40 AM, stormtracker said:

It's going to be glorious.  And then we will see all of our fallen brothers and sisters in a heavenly snowball fight.

You, @CAPE @Terpeast @brooklynwx99 @Bob Chill et all, take us home!

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Crack open that 120. You would have a glorious deep sleep. And some weird ass dreams lol.

On top of JD.. eh, nah, save it. Needs to be a proper occasion and savored- for after Mahomes loses, or our collective ultimate victory- a late Feb KU. 

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
  On 2/11/2024 at 1:52 AM, CAPE said:

Crack open that 120. You would have a glorious deep sleep. And some weird ass dreams lol.

On top of JD.. eh, nah, save it. Needs to be a proper occasion and savored- for after Mahomes loses, or our collective ultimate victory- a late Feb KU. 

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Tomorrow friend.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

I think for PD our best chance is if that NS wave can get ahead of the STJ wave, provide some cold but clear for the STJ to stall and amplify behind it. 
 

If the NS wave is slower and behind it could phase but with the weaker blocking than was showing (it gets there but not until a couple days later now) that opens the door to an inland runner rain solution. I’m rooting for the NS wave to get ahead. That wave could also end to being the only show for us. That’ lacks the bigger upside of the STJ wave but could be a way to snow. I don’t buy the gfs solution of that wave running to our north. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 2/10/2024 at 7:36 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12z GEFS: PNA is negative for "PSU storm".. I don't care what the NAO is doing, the Pacific has overwhelmed the Atlantic constantly since 18-19. I mean, with the way it's trending, we may end up in the 50s. I still think PD is our best shot at snow, because it has the most favorable upper latitude pattern. 

When subsurface ENSO changes happen, the N. Pacific pattern does adjust, sometimes even despite what is going on at the surface. It's a fairly successful forecasting method. 

The -NAO/-PNA/+EPO, +NAO/+PNA/-EPO correlation is holding. Models were showing a break, but it backed off of the short term -NAO, associated with +PNA, and went stronger on long range -NAO associated with -PNA. 

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This was literally our snowiest period in Fing history.  
IMG_1504.gif.7203eeeec1b64df19a2f889b2f8e3725.gif

so please stop with the PNA nonsense. This above was the goal. That’s always been what we wanted. If you look at -pdo ninos they had a western pna trough. But they were snowy anyways!  We have snowed plenty through history in a -pna. Yes lately it’s not been working. But I was told that was a Nina problem. If we fail it’s not “pna”. We can and have snowed in a pna pattern. Some of our snowiest periods ever had a pna. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
  On 2/11/2024 at 5:32 AM, psuhoffman said:

This was literally our snowiest period in Fing history.  
IMG_1504.gif.7203eeeec1b64df19a2f889b2f8e3725.gif

so please stop with the PNA nonsense. This above was the goal. That’s always been what we wanted. If you look at -pdo ninos they had a western pna trough. But they were snowy anyways!  We have snowed plenty through history in a -pna. Yes lately it’s not been working. But I was told that was a Nina problem. If we fail it’s not “pna”. We can and have snowed in a pna pattern. Some of our snowiest periods ever had a pna. 

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Do you like...think that, prior to this year, blaming the nina was that absurd of an idea even though we hadn't had a legit niño until now to test things? Seems reasonable to wanna see since we had 5 years of our least snowy state...But I'm guessing you never bought the nina argument in the first place?

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
  On 2/11/2024 at 4:48 AM, psuhoffman said:

I think for PD our best chance is if that NS wave can get ahead of the STJ wave, provide some cold but clear for the STJ to stall and amplify behind it. 
 

If the NS wave is slower and behind it could phase but with the weaker blocking than was showing (it gets there but not until a couple days later now) that opens the door to an inland runner rain solution. I’m rooting for the NS wave to get ahead. That wave could also end to being the only show for us. That’ lacks the bigger upside of the STJ wave but could be a way to snow. I don’t buy the gfs solution of that wave running to our north. 

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The 0z Canadian kinda had that "at least we got something" scenario you mentioned with the NS wave giving us something but kinda missing the STJ wave.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 2/11/2024 at 5:37 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Do you like...think that, prior to this year, blaming the nina was absurd even though we hadn't had a legit niño until now to test things? You said that as if you never bought that argument in the first place, lol

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No I never bought that BS. We’ve had Nina -pna patterns before in the past. And they weren’t as bad. Yes they were bad. But they weren’t 2017-2023 bad!   I was SURE more was going on than the simple “blame the pac base state” BS arguments.
 

What I wasn’t sure of was how much the issues we are talking about would mute things when we had a good enso state. Let’s say we’re talkiing about the western pac warm pool, the expanded Hadley cell, the northerly displaced jet, the warmer gulf and Atlantic. All those things are a fact. We can just agree not to talk about what they may or may not all be related too!   regardless of that they all are a reality and all act opposite our snow interests. 
 

what I thought and hoped was that a strong -QBO Nino would overcome those issues. That we hadn’t reached a point where those issues now eliminated even what has been our perfect setup for a lot of snow. 
 

This isn’t a me throwing in the towel post. I’m not. I’m still bullish we get snow.  This is just me telling Chuck shut up about the damn pna. Some of our best snow periods in history, and some were the analogs I used to predict a ton of snow, were -pna -nao periods in a Nino. 
 

You saw 2010 above. look at these other snowy Nino periods during -pdo periods. 
1958

IMG_1507.gif.051501ef4e9f5cb6133ca4b4119840dc.gif

1964

IMG_1505.gif.492d62da8bf61697ccdecba23ad07fb1.gif
1966

IMG_1506.gif.f79ac985356ae0e0841438b44c71a367.gif

A -pna was part of the equation. It wasn’t supposed to matter in a Nino.  -pna -nao ninos are supposed to be snowy!  We go through -pdo cycles where an pna dominates and they can last decades!  It snowed plenty in the past in those cycles. So no I don’t accept the pna as a blanket excuse for it not snowing.  
 

Baltimore averages 42” in -QBO ninos since 1950!  If we end up with something well short of that then I know what it was, and it’s not the damn pna. What it is is those other factors all conspiring to make it impossible to overcome the pna like we did in the past. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 2/11/2024 at 10:36 AM, BristowWx said:

New look on 6z for PD weekend.  Interesting.  Only digital blue I could find so far. 

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It's the same idea as the 0z run, except the NS energy digs further south and induces a surface low over NC. Could work but if it ends up all NS with the southern wave suppressed it probably favors places further north.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
  On 2/11/2024 at 12:09 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

I don't dislike this look. Stj wave, possible ns interaction, ridging out west, weakness in the flow near 50/50. 

gfs-ens_z500_vort_namer_52.png

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Getting ahead here but this^^ system is impacted by what happens the 19th-20th. With that said tho, I am  very co fident we cash in between the 18th-26th at the very least. One of those 2 waves works out....maybe both. 

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Daniel Boone

Daniel Boone

Posted
Posted
  On 2/11/2024 at 6:02 AM, psuhoffman said:

No I never bought that BS. We’ve had Nina -pna patterns before in the past. And they weren’t as bad. Yes they were bad. But they weren’t 2017-2023 bad!   I was SURE more was going on than the simple “blame the pac base state” BS arguments.
 

What I wasn’t sure of was how much the issues we are talking about would mute things when we had a good enso state. Let’s say we’re talkiing about the western pac warm pool, the expanded Hadley cell, the northerly displaced jet, the warmer gulf and Atlantic. All those things are a fact. We can just agree not to talk about what they may or may not all be related too!   regardless of that they all are a reality and all act opposite our snow interests. 
 

what I thought and hoped was that a strong -QBO Nino would overcome those issues. That we hadn’t reached a point where those issues now eliminated even what has been our perfect setup for a lot of snow. 
 

This isn’t a me throwing in the towel post. I’m not. I’m still bullish we get snow.  This is just me telling Chuck shut up about the damn pna. Some of our best snow periods in history, and some were the analogs I used to predict a ton of snow, were -pna -nao periods in a Nino. 
 

You saw 2010 above. look at these other snowy Nino periods during -pdo periods. 
1958

IMG_1507.gif.051501ef4e9f5cb6133ca4b4119840dc.gif

1964

IMG_1505.gif.492d62da8bf61697ccdecba23ad07fb1.gif
1966

IMG_1506.gif.f79ac985356ae0e0841438b44c71a367.gif

A -pna was part of the equation. It wasn’t supposed to matter in a Nino.  -pna -nao ninos are supposed to be snowy!  We go through -pdo cycles where an pna dominates and they can last decades!  It snowed plenty in the past in those cycles. So no I don’t accept the pna as a blanket excuse for it not snowing.  
 

Baltimore averages 42” in -QBO ninos since 1950!  If we end up with something well short of that then I know what it was, and it’s not the damn pna. What it is is those other factors all conspiring to make it impossible to overcome the pna like we did in the past. 

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Good Post and Point. Those Factors mentioned are looking more and more likely the culprit. All in tandem. 

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