psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Article in the Washington Post yesterday that latest studies show the Gulf Stream may collapse due to fresh water glacial melt sooner than previously thought, like within a few years. Could cool things off over 30 degrees...mini ice age. Maybe that will kill the SER. Thank god 3 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Ok I did start this, but it was in reference to our current pattern. We should probably continue the sulfur and coming ice age discussion in the CC thread so the sensitive snowflakes that get the vapers when anything about warming is mentioned don’t show up to bitch and complain. 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 you know the vibes have soured a bit when people are mentioning La Nina in a pattern discussion thread during a strong Nino lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you know the vibes have soured a bit when people are mentioning La Nina in a pattern discussion thread during a strong Nino lol 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Here is one reason why I have eyes on PD despite the op gfs showing a rainstorm. Feb 13-14 was supposed to be a cutter and was depicted as such up until earlier this week. And we don’t even have cold air anywhere nearby. I think we will see it evolve in our favor once the models work out the northern stream under a greenland blocking regime. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 31 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Article in the Washington Post yesterday that latest studies show the Gulf Stream may collapse due to fresh water glacial melt sooner than previously thought, like within a few years. Could cool things off over 30 degrees...mini ice age. Maybe that will kill the SER. What the issue with a little mass ecological destruction when it comes to us getting more snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: What the issue with a little mass ecological destruction when it comes to us getting more snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you know the vibes have soured a bit when people are mentioning La Nina in a pattern discussion thread during a strong Nino lol It appears our epic pattern has run into a few elephants along the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: It appears our epic pattern has run into a few elephants along the way! Don't worry, the pattern will actually become epic in late March/early April and then we'll have endless backdoor cold fronts through May. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12z EURO looks colder for PD. We'll see shortly... might still be too suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 JB says hug the JMA MJO and arctic air will come east later next week.... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: JB says hug the JMA MJO and arctic air will come east later next week.... This generally agrees with the hovmollers diagram DarkSharkWX posted a couple of pages back. I wouldn’t discount weak p1/2 just because the Jma said so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 If the MJO does end up being more JMA like it should then trend colder for later next week, no idea if it will be stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Euro's cold enough to snow until the precip finally gets here for the PD3 "storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 There is a lot going on here. Tracking for this period won't be for the faint of heart. 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Slight differences between WB 12Z GFS and EURO at Day 9 plus... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: There is a lot going on here. Tracking for this period won't be for the faint of heart. True dat .... Prozac required Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 45 minutes ago, peribonca said: Don't worry, the pattern will actually become epic in late March/early April and then we'll have endless backdoor cold fronts through May. Very good. Well stated. That's Deb Playbook Rule No. 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 This is a good look on the EPS with significant NS energy tracking eastward and phasing into the 50-50 low ahead of the southern shortwave. The tricky part will be the next piece of energy dropping southward as the wave continues to track east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is a good look on the EPS with significant NS energy tracking eastward and phasing into the 50-50 low ahead of the southern shortwave. The tricky part will be the next piece of energy dropping southward as the wave continues to track east. overall good changes, better chance of phasing and brings the vortex more E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is a good look on the EPS with significant NS energy tracking eastward and phasing into the 50-50 low ahead of the southern shortwave. The tricky part will be the next piece of energy dropping southward as the wave continues to track east. I just want a legitimate threat to track next week and this Euro run got me excited for that so mission accomplished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12z GEFS: PNA is negative for "PSU storm".. I don't care what the NAO is doing, the Pacific has overwhelmed the Atlantic constantly since 18-19. I mean, with the way it's trending, we may end up in the 50s. I still think PD is our best shot at snow, because it has the most favorable upper latitude pattern. When subsurface ENSO changes happen, the N. Pacific pattern does adjust, sometimes even despite what is going on at the surface. It's a fairly successful forecasting method. The -NAO/-PNA/+EPO, +NAO/+PNA/-EPO correlation is holding. Models were showing a break, but it backed off of the short term -NAO, associated with +PNA, and went stronger on long range -NAO associated with -PNA. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 53 minutes ago, Terpeast said: This generally agrees with the hovmollers diagram DarkSharkWX posted a couple of pages back. I wouldn’t discount weak p1/2 just because the Jma said so Hopefully it scores a coup. That would be great with HLB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12z control is a modest hit. Something at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Borrowing this- I like it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12z op. Euro is a PD hit for the Central Valley with 6 - 7 inches of snow. 90% probability it will be gone at 00z, but nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 32 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: overall good changes, better chance of phasing and brings the vortex more E Not a bad outcome this run as advertised. NS interaction is gonna be pesky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 In case you weren’t aware, @Carvers Gap is dropping value bombs with excellent MJO and LR model analysis. You should follow him. Very educational and I’m on the same page as he. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, Jebman said: Very good. Well stated. That's Deb Playbook Rule No. 2. Reverse psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Unfortunately what’s allowing it to come further north (a more relaxed flow than expected) is also allowing for thermal issues. We need that NS wave to play nice. Come across ahead and set the boundary. Or phase in behind. Riding right over the top is not going to work. It’s got a shot. I never said it didn’t. But it’s still more complicated than I like. I’m tracking it through. Just have nothing to add really. Is there a science reason the ns wave seems to always be on top of the ss wave or is it just bad luck ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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