yoda Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Lots of cold air lurking nearby on that run. I don’t think this will be a complete rainstorm Sure... the "favored areas" could see snow aka west of i81 corridor into the Alleghenies... but it needs a lot of work east of there. DCA is near 40 at that hour 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Lots of cold air lurking nearby on that run. I don’t think this will be a complete rainstorm Yeah saw that. I mentioned above that energy (or PV) north of the Lakes maybe looking like it screws us being farther west...but does it almost seem that a phase is in the works (which may or may not be good in the end either for us)? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: And many others only see the path to failure. My wag is the GEFS will look better than 06z for PD weekend. Not sure why we are looking past that threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Lots of cold air lurking nearby on that run. I don’t think this will be a complete rainstorm I agree, that was a nice track. Just need a little more northern interaction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Did the 12z GEFS enlighten you?No but I’ve seen many storms like the gfs shows modeled rain a week out in a good pattern end up as snow 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Terpeast said: Lots of cold air lurking nearby on that run. I don’t think this will be a complete rainstorm I don't think the next few weeks are going to be simple SS waves coming a cross. Alot of NS waves passing to the north. I think if that Northern stream would of gotten out of the way a little quicker and allowed the colder air to come east it could of been a snowier solution. But maybe it would of shunted everything east. Who knows but it won't matter in 6 hours as it will look different. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Since it's rain, it will hold solid for the next 10 days. Sorry.. I had to toss a turd at someone lol I pray so. We need it badly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Hope this is right and not the OP cmc . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Ji said: No but I’ve seen many storms like the gfs shows modeled rain a week out in a good pattern end up as snow i remember the sne storm in 2022 was modeled rain for them wasnt 2016 modeled as rain far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Chris78 said: I don't think the next few weeks are going to be simple SS waves coming a cross. Alot of NS waves passing to the north. I think if that Northern stream would of gotten out of the way a little quicker and allowed the colder air to come east it could of been a snowier solution. But maybe it would of shunted everything east. Who knows but it won't matter in 6 hours as it will look different. Wasn't that NS energy originally what suppressed the hell out of the potential PD event in the first place? And now it's farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GFS is firing a PNA ridge on the 20th ahead of the PSU baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Ji said: No but I’ve seen many storms like the gfs shows modeled rain a week out in a good pattern end up as snow He is frazzled. Seems he suddenly forgot everything he ever knew about LR guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: this shouldnt have to be said but therma i remember the sne storm in 2022 was modeled rain for them wasnt 2016 modeled as rain far out? Not sure of 2016, but I honestly don't recall at 10 days if it looked rainy (or various rainy solutions). I just remember a week out everything locked in to a major winter event. Now, Feb. 5-6, 2010...I've heard from others (@psuhoffman maybe?) that it was a bit dubious farther out in time once it got on the radar of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Wasn't that NS energy originally what suppressed the hell out of the potential PD event in the first place? And now it's farther west. Get that bowling ball up in Canada a little East and it might be a little colder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Chris78 said: Get that bowling ball up in Canada a little East and it might be a little colder. ...Or, phase the living S out of that and give us March 1993 part deux! LOL!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GFS is a parade of disturbances with no access to cold air at our lat. need that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GFS is a parade of disturbances with no access to cold air at our lat. need that to change.That’s actually what’s been scaring me the most. No real cold. The ens look below normal but it’s below normal in late Feb. and early March… it takes a little more especially if the time of day ends up not ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, snowfan said: GFS is a parade of disturbances with no access to cold air at our lat. need that to change. For better or worse, it will change. Stick with the ensembles especially at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 10 minutes ago, snowfan said: GFS is a parade of disturbances with no access to cold air at our lat. need that to change. Unfortunately, this has become a common occurrence, basically since 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 33 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Not sure of 2016, but I honestly don't recall at 10 days if it looked rainy (or various rainy solutions). I just remember a week out everything locked in to a major winter event. Now, Feb. 5-6, 2010...I've heard from others (@psuhoffman maybe?) that it was a bit dubious farther out in time once it got on the radar of interest. Those storms had less NS interaction to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 15 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: Unfortunately, this has become a common occurrence, basically since 2017. It’s not as bad as it’s been in the recent Nina’s but guidance is still showing a tendency for mid latitude and subtropical ridges to extend too far north despite blocking. Gfs even links the ser with the high latitude ridge again. For the last 5 years I’ve heard “that’s a Nina problem not you know what, we have to wait for a Nino”. Well… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GEFS look good with PD. 850s peak around normal during the event, which is around -3 nw of 95 and -2 for the rest 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs even links the ser with the high latitude ridge again. Been an occurrence ever since the Atlantic started to warm. The Atlantic is very warm and the Pac is warm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Pretty good track on the GEFS for PD weekend. Just pray temps are cold enough. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, frd said: Been an occurrence ever since the Atlantic started to warm. The Atlantic is very warm and the Pac is warm as well. Seems pretty simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, psuhoffman said: Seems pretty simple What's your thoughts on PD weekend? Looks like precip may come further north now. What do we need to see happen so it's cold enough other than a miracle lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s not as bad as it’s been in the recent Nina’s but guidance is still showing a tendency for mid latitude and subtropical ridges to extend too far north despite blocking. Gfs even links the ser with the high latitude ridge again. For the last 5 years I’ve heard “that’s a Nina problem not you know what, we have to wait for a Nino”. Well… If the same happens in a nino, then we can’t simply say it’s a “la nina problem” 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, frd said: Been an occurrence ever since the Atlantic started to warm. The Atlantic is very warm and the Pac is warm as well. Need to let ships emit SO2 again. Good idea to curb it... bad unintended consequences.https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/lower-sulfur-warmer-oceans-scientists-debate-unintended-impact-of-imo-2020/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Article in the Washington Post yesterday that latest studies show the Gulf Stream may collapse due to fresh water glacial melt sooner than previously thought, like within a few years. Could cool things off over 30 degrees...mini ice age. Maybe that will kill the SER. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: What's your thoughts on PD weekend? Looks like precip may come further north now. What do we need to see happen so it's cold enough other than a miracle lol. Unfortunately what’s allowing it to come further north (a more relaxed flow than expected) is also allowing for thermal issues. We need that NS wave to play nice. Come across ahead and set the boundary. Or phase in behind. Riding right over the top is not going to work. It’s got a shot. I never said it didn’t. But it’s still more complicated than I like. I’m tracking it through. Just have nothing to add really. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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