MDstorm Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 11 minutes ago, Ji said: Where is the mjo actually? Stuck in 7. However, it looks like our best week of winter weather so far has occurred in phases 4 and 5 (supposedly the crap phases). So much for mjo dictating our winter weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Where is the mjo actually? look at hovmollers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 6 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: look at hovmollers 7/8 now then weak 1/2 the rest of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 12z GFS keeps up that nice Miller A rainstorm for Presidents Day 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 7 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GFS keeps up that nice Miller A rainstorm for Presidents Day I await the PSU drought-buster storm! But semi-seriously, that energy north of the Lakes being held farther back doesn't do us much favors for the mid-level thermals. Unless somehow, we get some kind of phase in later runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GFS keeps up that nice Miller A rainstorm for Presidents Day Since it's rain, it will hold solid for the next 10 days. Sorry.. I had to toss a turd at someone lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 12z CMC is garbage for Presidents Day after 00z showed a C VA into N NC snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GFS keeps up that nice Miller A rainstorm for Presidents Day Perfect track Miller A rainstorm lol. It is really close though. Mid 30s Sunday afternoon and 850s around the PA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 I see a path to victory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, Ji said: I see a path to victory Did the 12z GEFS enlighten you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z CMC is garbage for Presidents Day after 00z showed a C VA into N NC snowstorm General idea though as 00z Storm is still there just weaker and souther. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z CMC is garbage for Presidents Day after 00z showed a C VA into N NC snowstorm Aka don’t trust OP models beyond 3-4 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, Ji said: I see a path to victory And many others only see the path to failure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Lots of cold air lurking nearby on that run. I don’t think this will be a complete rainstorm 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Lots of cold air lurking nearby on that run. I don’t think this will be a complete rainstorm Sure... the "favored areas" could see snow aka west of i81 corridor into the Alleghenies... but it needs a lot of work east of there. DCA is near 40 at that hour 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Lots of cold air lurking nearby on that run. I don’t think this will be a complete rainstorm Yeah saw that. I mentioned above that energy (or PV) north of the Lakes maybe looking like it screws us being farther west...but does it almost seem that a phase is in the works (which may or may not be good in the end either for us)? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: And many others only see the path to failure. My wag is the GEFS will look better than 06z for PD weekend. Not sure why we are looking past that threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Lots of cold air lurking nearby on that run. I don’t think this will be a complete rainstorm I agree, that was a nice track. Just need a little more northern interaction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Did the 12z GEFS enlighten you?No but I’ve seen many storms like the gfs shows modeled rain a week out in a good pattern end up as snow 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, Terpeast said: Lots of cold air lurking nearby on that run. I don’t think this will be a complete rainstorm I don't think the next few weeks are going to be simple SS waves coming a cross. Alot of NS waves passing to the north. I think if that Northern stream would of gotten out of the way a little quicker and allowed the colder air to come east it could of been a snowier solution. But maybe it would of shunted everything east. Who knows but it won't matter in 6 hours as it will look different. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 7 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Since it's rain, it will hold solid for the next 10 days. Sorry.. I had to toss a turd at someone lol I pray so. We need it badly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Hope this is right and not the OP cmc . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 minute ago, Ji said: No but I’ve seen many storms like the gfs shows modeled rain a week out in a good pattern end up as snow i remember the sne storm in 2022 was modeled rain for them wasnt 2016 modeled as rain far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, Chris78 said: I don't think the next few weeks are going to be simple SS waves coming a cross. Alot of NS waves passing to the north. I think if that Northern stream would of gotten out of the way a little quicker and allowed the colder air to come east it could of been a snowier solution. But maybe it would of shunted everything east. Who knows but it won't matter in 6 hours as it will look different. Wasn't that NS energy originally what suppressed the hell out of the potential PD event in the first place? And now it's farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 GFS is firing a PNA ridge on the 20th ahead of the PSU baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 minute ago, Ji said: No but I’ve seen many storms like the gfs shows modeled rain a week out in a good pattern end up as snow He is frazzled. Seems he suddenly forgot everything he ever knew about LR guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: this shouldnt have to be said but therma i remember the sne storm in 2022 was modeled rain for them wasnt 2016 modeled as rain far out? Not sure of 2016, but I honestly don't recall at 10 days if it looked rainy (or various rainy solutions). I just remember a week out everything locked in to a major winter event. Now, Feb. 5-6, 2010...I've heard from others (@psuhoffman maybe?) that it was a bit dubious farther out in time once it got on the radar of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 2 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Wasn't that NS energy originally what suppressed the hell out of the potential PD event in the first place? And now it's farther west. Get that bowling ball up in Canada a little East and it might be a little colder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, Chris78 said: Get that bowling ball up in Canada a little East and it might be a little colder. ...Or, phase the living S out of that and give us March 1993 part deux! LOL!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 GFS is a parade of disturbances with no access to cold air at our lat. need that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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