Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'd daresay this was close...but more experienced minds can weigh seeing as I'm still a but H5 illiterate 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, wasnow215 said: Yes and still warm. With that track from 18z GFS I don’t understand why there isn’t more cold air. What has to happen? Volcanic eruption or meteor. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, IronTy said: Volcanic eruption or meteor. Haha so you done know either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, wasnow215 said: Haha so you done know either Change the physical properties of water so that it freezes at like 45 degrees??? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Change the physical properties of water so that it freezes at like 45 degrees??? Haha see above. @psuhoffmanor someone knowledgeable like to weigh in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Haha see above. @psuhoffmanor someone knowledgeable like to weigh in? Move the Earth further from the sun 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: Haha see above. @psuhoffmanor someone knowledgeable like to weigh in? OK, I'm not @psuhoffman and don't play him on TV...and yeah my previous comment was meant as snarky humor. But in all seriousness, just giving a cursory glance at the 500-mb flow around that time, it seems to me that the GFS just lifts everything more. The PV seems to get shunted north or elongated a bit, with little confluent flow; rather than forming a 50/50 type low it sits way up there in northeast Canada. We end up with flow coming right off the Pacific. At least according to the GFS ops. Here's one snapshot: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 goa low on EPS for the 24th signal, jet is extended right amount and in good spot(this usually js comes with +EPO), pacific troughing/goa low is correlated to snow for us bc it implies enhanced STJ as others have said it looks good for 24th 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: OK, I'm not @psuhoffman and don't play him on TV...and yeah my previous comment was meant as snarky humor. But in all seriousness, just giving a cursory glance at the 500-mb flow around that time, it seems to me that the GFS just lifts everything more. The PV seems to get shunted north or elongated a bit, with little confluent flow; rather than forming a 50/50 type low it sits way up there in northeast Canada. We end up with flow coming right off the Pacific. At least according to the GFS ops. Here's one snapshot: Ty! Seems like if things are still this volatile from run to run things can still pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 PD is by no means "dead". No it doesn't look like big dog potential, but there is a signal for a storm there. The latest op runs indicate it will require timing with NS energy. Well this isnt surprising- it has been a theme, even in the one week deep winter period back in Jan. So far this has not been the quintessential 'quiet' NS Nino. My wag is it won't be going forward either. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Ty! Seems like if things are still this volatile from run to run things can still pan out. I'd let others more knowledgeable chime in, but that was just my back-of-the-envelope thought and assessment. And yeah, it's looking at the ops GFS at 240 hours. I wouldn't put a huge amount of stock in that...being an ops run at that time range, plus, well, the GFS. But taken in isolation, I don't care for that flow as it's shown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: So far this has not been the quintessential 'quiet' NS Nino. Why do you think that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: PD is by no means "dead". No it doesn't look like big dog potential, but there is a signal for a storm there. The latest op runs indicate it will require timing with NS energy. Well this isnt surprising- it has been a theme, even in the one week deep winter period. So far this has not been the quintessential 'quiet' NS Nino. My wag is it won't be going forward either. The real question. How many 120’s deep are you!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: The real question. How many 120’s deep are you!? Zero. One RAR triple IPA and half a KBS so far. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, CAPE said: Zero. One RAR triple IPA and half a KBS so far. Those 2 together easily in ABV probably = 1-120 Min? Is that how math works? I dunno. Pretty good reason I dropped trying to be a meteorologist my freshman year of college. Lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why do you think that is? The southward displaced TPV between the developing NA block and the amped up EPO ridge. That should close off and shift north heading into the end of Feb/beginning of March per LR guidance. Somewhat different setup, but during our wintery period in Jan there was a TPV 'stuck' under a retrograding -NAO. These H5 configurations will produce a busy NS. Going forward the developing block with a legit 50-50 low should help shift/consolidate the NS energy in that region and inhibit it from dropping southward as much. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Indication of NS interaction at h5 and norther SLP on the 18z GEFS for PD window. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 51 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Change the physical properties of water so that it freezes at like 45 degrees??? We'd be a snow town again!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: Indication of NS interaction at h5 and norther SLP on the 18z GEFS for PD window. If the gfs is correct and other models trend this way, we might have another tracking opportunity sooner than most are expecting. I don’t think any of the models are doing a good job with the ns/ss interactions and just smoothes everything out in the long range. My wag is that there will be an unexpected plot twist in the next 10-14 days. Just hope one breaks in our favor. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Change the physical properties of water so that it freezes at like 45 degrees??? Increase the air pressure. Remember at higher altitudes it takes longer to cook foods? Because lower air pressure = lower boiling point. Higher air pressure, higher freezing point. THIS, is how you get water to freeze at say 45 degrees. We might need to increase the planetary gravity some. Invent gravity plating, or better yet, gravity inducing force fields. I am desperate for snow in the Mid Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If the gfs is correct and other models trend this way, we might have another tracking opportunity sooner than most are expecting. I don’t think any of the models are doing a good job with the ns/ss interactions and just smoothes everything out in the long range. My wag is that there will be an unexpected plot twist in the next 10-14 days. Just hope one breaks in our favor. All we can say with certainty is there should be multiple chances beyond mid month, given the advertised h5 pattern progression. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Change the physical properties of water so that it freezes at like 45 degrees??? Actually, Heavy water freezes at about 38.9 F, so we just need to replace all normal hydrogen with deuterium. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Latest WB 18Z GEFS is colder than normal over Feb. 17-21 but not as cold as previous runs thereafter. Any concerns? 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: All we can say with certainty is there should be multiple chances beyond mid month, given the advertised h5 pattern progression. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: We are getting REALLY DESPERATE when we resort to Dr Seuss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 52 minutes ago, CAPE said: Zero. One RAR triple IPA and half a KBS so far. Just picked up a 4 of kbs and a 4 of cbs. Delish...both. I agree pd is in play still. Not pd3 but that's fine. Eta: this shit be expensive....need a cheaper vice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: All I’ve gathered from my years here is that you want the red orb on top of us and the blue orb to the right of us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The southward displaced TPV between the developing NA block and the amped up EPO ridge. That should close off and shift north heading into the end of Feb/beginning of March per LR guidance. Somewhat different setup, but during our wintery period in Jan there was a TPV 'stuck' under a retrograding -NAO. These H5 configurations will produce a busy NS. Going forward the developing block with a legit 50-50 low should help shift/consolidate the NS energy in that region and inhibit it from dropping southward as much. So I'm guessing that's just something more random that just so happens to be a thing this winter? (In the case of PD I guess we need that ns interaction like a couple of you have mentioned). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 ^thats an amazing signal given the lead time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 There’s my baby 6 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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