stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Obviously some scatter still, but 12z GEFS looks fairly bullish for the psu storm cute little wave amplifying in the midwest on the Euro...but the show is about to cut off on the next panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Shad said: Euro an improvement from the 00z disaster but still a miss.......Looks similar to the GFS at first look Yeah isn't the wave interaction closer this time? Just wondering if it may be a tad soon to give up on it just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Obviously some scatter still, but 12z GEFS looks fairly bullish for the psu storm We lose the -EPO and the Japan ridge is moving east. In verification, Surface temps would be a problem I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: That's the one around the 23-24th? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nah, with the -EPO like that we should be colder.. that's why I said watch to see what they do over Alaska in future runs. See PSU this is what's happening https://ibb.co/x70S0hq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: cute little wave amplifying in the midwest on the Euro...but the show is about to cut off on the next panel Yeah it’s something. At least euro still shows a favorable pattern at D10. New gfs SOP is that everything after D10 is to revert to April basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 DT is sounding alarm about rest of winter very concerned about MJO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: DT is sounding alarm about rest of winter very concerned about MJO. Sounds jumpy. All ens still look good to me. Blocking, cold air feed, signal of a wave underneath us around Feb 23-24 What has really changed? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 GEFS is suppression city with PD, Weeklies give some possibility of northward translation. Both GEFS and Weeklies give a reasonable threat for 23 & 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 14 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Sounds jumpy. All ens still look good to me. Blocking, cold air feed, signal of a wave underneath us around Feb 23-24 What has really changed? We’ve already been tracking this period for 2+ weeks and have 2 weeks to go. People are antsy and irritable. I know I’m looking forward to not hearing “MJO” for 8 more months starting March 15th. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 28 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: DT is sounding alarm about rest of winter very concerned about MJO. Such an over reaction and he complains about everyone else.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We’ve already been tracking this period for 2+ weeks and have 2 weeks to go. People are antsy and irritable. I know I’m looking forward to not hearing “MJO” for 8 more months starting March 15th. Same, I'm tired of hearing about the damned MJO. Besides it was in the warm phases when we got that winter week in January. And it was in 8-1-2 in December and it didn't do squat for us. Like I said before, the waiting is the worst part. I get a little antsy too, so can't say I blame them. But DT? Come on 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 15 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Same, I'm tired of hearing about the damned MJO. Besides it was in the warm phases when we got that winter week in January. And it was in 8-1-2 in December and it didn't do squat for us. Like I said before, the waiting is the worst part. I get a little antsy too, so can't say I blame them. But DT? Come on More and more it seems to me that the MJO is just one forcing factor among many others. So many Mets have been taking it as some purely prescriptive forecaster. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 More and more it seems to me that the MJO is just one forcing factor among many others. So many Mets have been taking it as some purely prescriptive forecaster.There was one winter where every time the MJO entered Phase 8 it snowed just like magic. Became my favorite indicator because of that and because it’s very easy to understand, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 EPS is very aggressive for the 24th 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 ^looks like even an indication of northern stream energy phasing in? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is very aggressive for the 24th I see they we’re losing the 50/50 and that the NAO is positive, so it looks bad to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is very aggressive for the 24th Beeee-youuuuu-teeee-fullll! And looks plenty cold enough judging from that 540 height line 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: ^looks like even an indication of northern stream energy phasing in? Looks like it. A bit too north. Much different than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12z GEFS for the 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: Sounds jumpy. All ens still look good to me. Blocking, cold air feed, signal of a wave underneath us around Feb 23-24 What has really changed? Chuck did research Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I wonder if 18z gfs not a suppressed for pd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, Ji said: I wonder if 18z gfs not a suppressed for pd Big dog woof? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, Ji said: I wonder if 18z gfs not a suppressed for pd Doesn't seem AS suppressed if that means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, Ji said: I wonder if 18z gfs not a suppressed for pd It’s suppressed. Looks like it’s coming to get us and the light stuff hits DC then it’s exit stage right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 It’s suppressed. Looks like it’s coming to get us and the light stuff hits DC then it’s exit stage right It jumped north 600 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, Ji said: It jumped north 600 miles I didn’t say it wasn’t better. Just still suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The last couple of runs of eps kind of kills the +PNA in the long range. We can't have that for a favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I did t say it wasn’t better. Just still suppressed I'd daresay this was close...but more experienced minds can weigh seeing as I'm still a bit H5 illiterate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, Ji said: It jumped north 600 miles Yes and still warm. With that track from 18z GFS I don’t understand why there isn’t more cold air. What has to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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