stormtracker Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 6:32 PM, EHoffman said: The line about the guy who makes his own snow made me burst out loud laughing. Haven't thought about him in years. Expand Midlo. He's been MIA for the past few hours. Loved me some Midlo. He paved the way for RR. He crawled so RR could walk. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 6:34 PM, stormtracker said: Midlo. He's been MIA for the past few hours. Loved me some Midlo. He paved the way for RR. He crawled so RR could walk. Expand That was his name, right. Hilarious character. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 6:28 PM, Terpeast said: Sure! For now my idea was a dart toss at a La Nina climo map most favorable for snow, lol But if I go through with it, it'll be a family trip with the wife and kid in tow... though I might want to hit the steeper slopes with a fellow skier while they stick with the bunnies Expand Early word is JB’s favoring 95-96 as his top analog 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Euro has a southern wave..like way south into Mexico, but it won't be able to amplify. On to 18 and 0z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 6:34 PM, EHoffman said: That was his name, right. Hilarious character. Expand I loved his backyard snow maker. I wanted to dig the snow and pile it right up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 6:39 PM, stormtracker said: Euro has a southern wave..like way south into Mexico, but it won't be able to amplify. On to 18 and 0z! Expand Every model run thar does that it just looks like the wave says PD3 as it slides south...man the psu storm...hope it works. We can't get shutout this month and gamble with March to try to get to 25-30" like many predictions did. We may have an idea in 10 days...(when that storm would be in modeling range) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 6:39 PM, stormtracker said: Euro has a southern wave..like way south into Mexico, but it won't be able to amplify. On to 18 and 0z! Expand I know this PD3 wave will likely be suppressed, but damn, the look of that storm brewing in the plains on all the globals around D7 gets my loins movin’… 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 6:23 PM, stormtracker said: Expand Got damn good belly laugh out of that video again! Never fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 6:42 PM, WxUSAF said: I know this PD3 wave will likely be suppressed, but damn, the look of that storm brewing in the plains on all the globals around D7 gets my loins movin’… Expand Suppressed pants-tent, as it were! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 But hang on though...is a phase completely out of the question for thar wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Did you guys see my NG research? It's since fallen down to 1.83 https://ibb.co/kxdbZSs Quote Since 1998, top 7 +Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 8.3, bottom 4 Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 2.2. We are at 1.97, the 3rd lowest on record in that time, fitting the extreme situation guideline. Here are the top 11 +analogs for March.. based on Feb's NG price: https://ibb.co/6wKqgDf https://ibb.co/Hp0zZqW ^that's Feb high/low NG price rolled forward into March (so a +1 month lead time). I don't know that March's warmth will be that extreme, because a lot of LR models (GEFS, EPS, Euro) are showing below average temps through the 21st, but we probably will finish the month above normal in the NE. 100dm is an amazing signal for something not even really related! Furthermore, my analog set is 1998-2023. I have 11 analogs out of the dataset.. so 11/25 years.. 41% of the total. To have a +7F average anomaly (+ and - .. more - years, for the global warming skew.. 7/11 are cold analogs) for 40% of a dataset in 25 years is amazing! Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Euro an improvement from the 00z disaster but still a miss.......Looks similar to the GFS at first look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Obviously some scatter still, but 12z GEFS looks fairly bullish for the psu storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 6:52 PM, WxUSAF said: Obviously some scatter still, but 12z GEFS looks fairly bullish for the psu storm Expand That's the one around the 23-24th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 6:52 PM, WxUSAF said: Obviously some scatter still, but 12z GEFS looks fairly bullish for the psu storm Expand cute little wave amplifying in the midwest on the Euro...but the show is about to cut off on the next panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 6:52 PM, Shad said: Euro an improvement from the 00z disaster but still a miss.......Looks similar to the GFS at first look Expand Yeah isn't the wave interaction closer this time? Just wondering if it may be a tad soon to give up on it just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 6:52 PM, WxUSAF said: Obviously some scatter still, but 12z GEFS looks fairly bullish for the psu storm Expand We lose the -EPO and the Japan ridge is moving east. In verification, Surface temps would be a problem I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 6:54 PM, Scarlet Pimpernel said: That's the one around the 23-24th? Expand 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 5:22 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nah, with the -EPO like that we should be colder.. that's why I said watch to see what they do over Alaska in future runs. Expand See PSU this is what's happening https://ibb.co/x70S0hq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 6:55 PM, stormtracker said: cute little wave amplifying in the midwest on the Euro...but the show is about to cut off on the next panel Expand Yeah it’s something. At least euro still shows a favorable pattern at D10. New gfs SOP is that everything after D10 is to revert to April basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 DT is sounding alarm about rest of winter very concerned about MJO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 7:27 PM, Jersey Andrew said: DT is sounding alarm about rest of winter very concerned about MJO. Expand Sounds jumpy. All ens still look good to me. Blocking, cold air feed, signal of a wave underneath us around Feb 23-24 What has really changed? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 GEFS is suppression city with PD, Weeklies give some possibility of northward translation. Both GEFS and Weeklies give a reasonable threat for 23 & 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 7:39 PM, Terpeast said: Sounds jumpy. All ens still look good to me. Blocking, cold air feed, signal of a wave underneath us around Feb 23-24 What has really changed? Expand We’ve already been tracking this period for 2+ weeks and have 2 weeks to go. People are antsy and irritable. I know I’m looking forward to not hearing “MJO” for 8 more months starting March 15th. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 7:27 PM, Jersey Andrew said: DT is sounding alarm about rest of winter very concerned about MJO. Expand Such an over reaction and he complains about everyone else.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 7:54 PM, WxUSAF said: We’ve already been tracking this period for 2+ weeks and have 2 weeks to go. People are antsy and irritable. I know I’m looking forward to not hearing “MJO” for 8 more months starting March 15th. Expand Same, I'm tired of hearing about the damned MJO. Besides it was in the warm phases when we got that winter week in January. And it was in 8-1-2 in December and it didn't do squat for us. Like I said before, the waiting is the worst part. I get a little antsy too, so can't say I blame them. But DT? Come on 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 8:08 PM, Terpeast said: Same, I'm tired of hearing about the damned MJO. Besides it was in the warm phases when we got that winter week in January. And it was in 8-1-2 in December and it didn't do squat for us. Like I said before, the waiting is the worst part. I get a little antsy too, so can't say I blame them. But DT? Come on Expand More and more it seems to me that the MJO is just one forcing factor among many others. So many Mets have been taking it as some purely prescriptive forecaster. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 8:24 PM, WxUSAF said: More and more it seems to me that the MJO is just one forcing factor among many others. So many Mets have been taking it as some purely prescriptive forecaster.There was one winter where every time the MJO entered Phase 8 it snowed just like magic. Became my favorite indicator because of that and because it’s very easy to understand, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 EPS is very aggressive for the 24th 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 ^looks like even an indication of northern stream energy phasing in? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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