psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 13 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Or this... I think most of that snow was from the Feb 14 wave on that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I think most of that snow was from the Feb 14 wave on that run. Also, notice it's the extended ensemble CONTROL member, not a mean. So it's even subtly deceptive in that regard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 @Weather Will for the record we want negatives centered where the Xs are. that look there to me screams NS wave going to our north and suppressed STJ which is what they period has always looked like. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That looks like a snowstorm look for us to you? This is better example. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I will let this go, quote from you.... If you want to put money down on a HECS between Feb 21-25 is the absolute best chance. I wouldn't kick the Feb 17-20 period out of bed though, just it might be a little too soon in the progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Weather Will said: This is better example. That’s suppressed look. Roll that run forward aNe the negative ends up centered off the GA SC coast. We want that negative centered in the TN valley then through southern VA. That looks like a miss south if you know how to read those maps. I’ve never seen anything that indicated a storm was likely that weekend. Nothing. Everything has always looked suppressed except a few gfs op runs. People were just trying to will it into existence because it’s PD and they won’t want to wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That looks like a snowstorm look for us to you? That’s cold and dry to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: I will let this go, quote from you.... If you want to put money down on a HECS between Feb 21-25 is the absolute best chance. I wouldn't kick the Feb 17-20 period out of bed though, just it might be a little too soon in the progression. I was trying not to be a deb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just so I’m following, is the point of this conversation that the current D10 period does not look as favorable for a big snowstorm as it did when it was D15-25? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Ok, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, WxUSAF said: Just so I’m following, is the point of this conversation that the current D10 period does not look as favorable for a big snowstorm as it did when it was D15-25? I was also trying to figure out the pointless conversation WW is driving. I didn’t know PSU was paid to give his input and contribute to the forum. And…if his projections don’t pan out they take the money back? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Ok, Stop trying Will. There will be something to critique regardless of what it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 @Weather Will it’s still not a 0 chance. But it’s a long shot. The block is peaking Feb 20. The 50/50 is a beast. It will be hard for a stj wave to get to our latitude in that flow. It would probably take a major phased amplification to buckle that flow enough. Or…the euro almost pulled it off last night by stalling the stj wave until the 21-22. That would open the door a little more. It’s a chance. I’m not saying it’s dead. But it’s always been a long shot low probability chance. Always. So if it doesn’t work out that many a can kick or punting. That’s always been the most likely scenario given the pattern progression. If things start to go wrong with the period starting Feb 22 onward then I will be concerned and would characterize it as a can kick or fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Just so I’m following, is the point of this conversation that the current D10 period does not look as favorable for a big snowstorm as it did when it was D15-25? I think Ji’s “punting” meme sparked this idea that the possible fail of the PD weekend would be a can kick somehow. Will has been trying to take that side and posting maps but to me they all scream suppression which is why I was never overly excited by that period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Just so I’m following, is the point of this conversation that the current D10 period does not look as favorable for a big snowstorm as it did when it was D15-25? We are having a discussion about whether the PD period ever supported a snow storm outside weenie dreams and a few GFS runs. Since we are both stubborn AHoles and and there is nothing to track, it has gone on longer than expected. All in good spirits, I will stop. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Siberia is a huge high latitude land mass sheltered from any wind flow off a warm body of water. That isn’t a coincidence. The fact it can still get cold in Siberia means absolutely nothing to us. I would rather not debate this in this thread. I lurk the forum to read talk about models, patterns etc. Not discussion alluding to you-know-what causing warm temperatures in winter or our patterns. There is an entire section of this webside devoted to you-know-what, there is a panic room thread, and a banter thread inside the Mid Atlantic Forum. It would be nice to keep the Long Range thread for Long Range discussion. I realize I may not have much pull in this request because of my post count. Just saying it would be nice. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Ok, Now that’s deceitful. That’s my storm. It hits Feb 20-22 not PD weekend! That particular run of the euro was just a little faster with the progression. look at the snow through Tuesday Feb 20! then by the 23 That wasn’t the PD threat. It’s squashed that wave on the 18-19th. That’s the wave after that I’ve always liked. The timing isn’t even the same. Originally the PD threat was supposed to be a wave on the 17-18. That’s now so dead people have turned to the next wave which barely even qualifies since it might start on the 19th maybe. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 A question I have been wanting to ask, and now seems like a good time to do so, is what is a 100% perfect 500mb map look like for the DC area? There is always something to critique it seems so can someone draw a perfect map? I assume even with the biggest storms in the past, the maps would have had something to criticize. Thanks in advance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, Wxdood said: I would rather not debate this in this thread. I lurk the forum to read talk about models, patterns etc. Not discussion alluding to you-know-what causing warm temperatures in winter or our patterns. There is an entire section of this webside devoted to you-know-what, there is a panic room thread, and a banter thread inside the Mid Atlantic Forum. It would be nice to keep the Long Range thread for Long Range discussion. I realize I may not have much pull in this request because of my post count. Just saying it would be nice. I was responding to comments, one of which was yours. So no. I’ve said this before but I’m not playing that game where someone brings up something then says “why are we talking about this”. Sorry that isn’t as clever or subtle as you think and I’m not stupid. It’s insulting that you think that would work. Take that passive aggressive BS nonsense somewhere else. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 15 minutes ago, Wxdood said: I would rather not debate this in this thread. I lurk the forum to read talk about models, patterns etc. Not discussion alluding to you-know-what causing warm temperatures in winter or our patterns. There is an entire section of this webside devoted to you-know-what, there is a panic room thread, and a banter thread inside the Mid Atlantic Forum. It would be nice to keep the Long Range thread for Long Range discussion. I realize I may not have much pull in this request because of my post count. Just saying it would be nice. To be a modern day forecaster, especially in temp sensitive situations, requires discussion of it to be the best possible forecaster… not sure how that’s hard to understand. You need to factor in all variables to get the right solution, unfortunately background warming is part of those variables now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: A question I have been wanting to ask, and now seems like a good time to do so, is what is a 100% perfect 500mb map look like for the DC area? There is always something to critique it seems so can someone draw a perfect map? I assume even with the biggest storms in the past, the maps would have had something to criticize. Thanks in advance Would think 96, 2009 or 2016 is a nice depiction. 2016 was just stupid with snow. hope to see that again before I buy the farm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 20 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: A question I have been wanting to ask, and now seems like a good time to do so, is what is a 100% perfect 500mb map look like for the DC area? There is always something to critique it seems so can someone draw a perfect map? I assume even with the biggest storms in the past, the maps would have had something to criticize. Thanks in advance It’s hard to say from one panel in a vacuum. It’s about a progression. But I think these two plots from last nights eps show what you are looking for. The 18th here is a great “loading pattern” but it’s a look we want to see like 3-5 days before a big storm. It’s not a day of look. The key here is that block 50/50 combo is going to press the boundary way south in the east. We want that because to get a big storm when a wave is on approach we need the boundary to our south. This sets us up. But look at the flow. Ridge axis is way too far east. The stj is way south. This is a suppressed look for this day. An STJ wave isn’t likely to amplify along the east coast under that. But roll that forward to this. This is close to perfect. the blocking is relaxing. The 50/50 Did its job but is now shifting east allowing room for amplification. The wave is centered in the TN valley. The ridge axis is in the mountain west. It’s subtle because all the pac waves will wash out a ridge at that range but it’s there. If I wanted to be super picky I would still prefer that pac trough western ridge be a slight smudge west. But now I’m being really picky. That look there is close to the perfect storm look when taken in conjunction with the look ahead of it. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: To be a modern day forecaster, especially in temp sensitive situations, requires discussion of it to be the best possible forecaster… not sure how that’s hard to understand. You need to factor in all variables to get the right solution, unfortunately background warming is part of those variables now I didn’t even talk about warming. I said the fact Siberia can get cold has no bearing on us because they have a completely different geographic reality than us. It’s like when people point out it’s snowing somewhere at 10,000 feet lol. I said nothing about CC. It can be implied through deductive reasoning of course but this is ridiculous. That was some BS game they were playing there. There was no discussion of CC going on. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 It’s hard to say from one panel in a vacuum. It’s about a progression. But I think these two plots from last nights eps show what you are looking for. The 18th here is a great “loading pattern” but it’s a look we want to see like 3-5 days before a big storm. It’s not a day of look. The key here is that block 50/50 combo is going to press the boundary way south in the east. We want that because to get a big storm when a wave is on approach we need the boundary to our south. This sets us up. But look at the flow. Ridge axis is way too far east. The stj is way south. This is a suppressed look for this day. An STJ wave isn’t likely to amplify along the east coast under that. But roll that forward to this. This is close to perfect. the blocking is relaxing. The 50/50 Did its job but is now shifting east allowing room for amplification. The wave is centered in the TN valley. The ridge axis is in the mountain west. It’s subtle because all the pac waves will wash out a ridge at that range but it’s there. If I wanted to be super picky I would still prefer that pac trough western ridge be a slight smudge west. But now I’m being really picky. That look there is close to the perfect storm look when taken in conjunction with the look ahead of it. Blizzard of 24 24 has a better ring to it anyway . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmyers1204 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I didn’t even talk about warming. I said the fact Siberia can get cold has no bearing on us because they have a completely different geographic reality than us. It’s like when people point out it’s snowing somewhere at 10,000 feet lol. I said nothing about CC. It can be implied through deductive reasoning of course but this is ridiculous. That was some BS game they were playing there. There was no discussion of CC going on. Hey! Leave Carroll County alone! Westminster is the greatest city in the whole wide world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 End of 6z control changed the pac pattern up a bit vs 00z euro run. Wonder if 12z can muster up anything with the STJ during 12z run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Now on models: The NAO is moderately negative for 84 hours, and that's about it (hrs 204-288)! Compared to some recent episodes, the Polar ridging doesn't look impressive, it barely even closes off any blocks. +250dm max (-epo/-ao) in February is not that much. The 50/50 low has trended much weaker for PD threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 gfs at 186 looks interesting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Hoping the GFS can pull something off for PD weekend, against all hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1045 High north of texas....hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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