Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[Ji]

Lost 40 inches of snow since 6z

[Ji]

Just a nasty merciless hobby

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This little shit southern GOM wave is kinda fucking things up.  GFS looks like it's try ing to tee up

I’m getting a little frustrated that temps look so marginal even during a period with extreme blocking with a monster 50/50. Case in point that’s a great setup for a Deep South snow but they aren’t close on temps. Even when the storms are suppressed they’re just rain to our south. I expected to see much more cold. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I don't know.. I guess the -NAO isn't strong enough. 

[Ji]

I’m getting a little frustrated that temps look so marginal even during a period with extreme blocking with a monster 50/50. Case in point that’s a great setup for a Deep South snow but they aren’t close on temps. Even when the storms are suppressed they’re just rain to our south. I expected to see much more cold. 

Let jb educate you on cahirs connection

[Ji]

They should run this stupid model only twice a week

[Ji]

Where if the 0 in nyc jb promised

[Ji]

Where is the cold and snow. Why am I seeing a zonal flow

[brooklynwx99]

jesus christ

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

jesus christ

Ignore Ji. But given such an extreme -epo, -nao, -AO pattern the temperatures being shown on guidance are pretty underwhelming. I didn’t expect it to be arctic cold. But even with a good flow we would need a damn perfect no wiggle room wave pass with some of the thermals. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Ignore Ji. But given such an extreme -epo, -nao, -AO pattern the temperatures being shown on guidance are pretty underwhelming. I didn’t expect it to be arctic cold. But even with a good flow we would need a damn perfect no wiggle room wave pass with some of the thermals. 

it was never going to be that cold with a Pacific trough, always just cold enough. I don't see anything that exactly points to thermal issues

[MD Snow]

Ignore Ji. But given such an extreme -epo, -nao, -AO pattern the temperatures being shown on guidance are pretty underwhelming. I didn’t expect it to be arctic cold. But even with a good flow we would need a damn perfect no wiggle room wave pass with some of the thermals. 

Did you see the cmc? Is snowing in Mexico “Deep South” enough? You’ve been harping on how terrible the gfs is doing with the the long range pattern progression yet using it to make a point about no cold air in the long range. All the while other guidance is a good bit colder. Let it play.


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[cbmclean]

 

2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Did you see the cmc? Is snowing in Mexico “Deep South” enough? You’ve been harping on how terrible the gfs is doing with the the long range pattern progression yet using it to make a point about no cold air in the long range. All the while other guidance is a good bit colder. Let it play.


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Other guidance is colder, but still not as cold as it "should" be.  Perhaps  correlated to low continental snow extent?

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Did you see the cmc? Is snowing in Mexico “Deep South” enough? You’ve been harping on how terrible the gfs is doing with the the long range pattern progression yet using it to make a point about no cold air in the long range. All the while other guidance is a good bit colder. Let it play.


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I waant using the gfs.  I’ve been looking at the euro control and ensemble members. They have been consistently showing underwhelming temps. A couple runs ago the euro had a storm that should have been a big snow for NC/SC but was just rain. Not even close really. And the reason the snow mean isn’t lighting up more than it is for the Feb 21-24 period is that there are quite a few perfect track rainstorms within the ensemble members. The eps h5, slp, and precip look amazing. Then the snow output looks blah. The reason is the temps. 

[psuhoffman]

And I said I’m frustrated. I expected colder. Something similar to 1958 and 2010. I didn’t said I’m throwing in the towel or changing anything yet. Sometimes people overreact to every random thought I post. 

[psuhoffman]

It snows in Mexico at elevation. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

You guys did say that the Atlantic was warm.. in the south-central and Caribbean SSTs are where they usually are in July?

Here's a 591dm High over Dominican Republic.  https://ibb.co/bL6GYZQ

^That 50/50 low is a little north, and while it is a -AO, it may also be a neutral to + NAO. https://ibb.co/7z7z3FZ

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

And I said I’m frustrated. I expected colder. Something similar to 1958 and 2010. I didn’t said I’m throwing in the towel or changing anything yet. Sometimes people overreact to every random thought I post. 

Nah, with the -EPO like that we should be colder.. that's why I said watch to see what they do over Alaska in future runs. 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

 

Other guidance is colder, but still not as cold as it "should" be.  Perhaps  correlated to low continental snow extent?

Or something else also 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nah, with the -EPO like that we should be colder.. that's why I said watch to see what they do over Alaska in future runs. 

That’s what I said. Given the long wave pattern it should be colder than what guidance is snowing. That’s it.  Not sure why that seems to have been controversial 

[cbmclean]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Or something else also 

If you mean Babar,  I am assuming the record low NA snow extent is correlated to him, but felt no need to go there.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

If you mean Babar,  I am assuming the record low NA snow extent is correlated to him, but felt no need to go there.

Yea I’m not trying to argue why it’s not colder. I’m just making the observation that compared to past periods with a similar pattern the temps being shown aren’t as cold as I expected. 

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I’m not trying to argue why it’s not colder. I’m just making the observation that compared to past periods with a similar pattern the temps being shown aren’t as cold as I expected. 

Does that include the derating you already factor in for a 2024 base state?    

[MDScienceTeacher]

5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS snow mean trending nicely...

I am pretty sure the vast majority of that is the first storm.

[NorthArlington101]

EURO is like a 75 mile jump south. Only really helps PSU as it stands… but still moving towards GFS.

[psuhoffman]

This enough blocking Chuck?

[psuhoffman]

Blocking still looks to peak around Feb 20. Making the PD storm unlikely unless a NS wave phases to buckle the flow. But my god I’ve never seen a signal this strong at this range before.  As the block relaxes one of these pac waves will survive. A few days after the block peaks and starts to relax still makes sense. 

[Heisy]

I’ve said since Jan I loved the sound of the 2/24/24 blizzard… well….

THIS to me looks more conducive for a classic storm than anything I see before imo, but we’ll see

It is wayyyy out there obviously





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[Heisy]

Blocking still looks to peak around Feb 20. Making the PD storm unlikely unless a NS wave phases to buckle the flow. But my god I’ve never seen a signal this strong at this range before.  As the block relaxes one of these pac waves will survive. A few days after the block peaks and starts to relax still makes sense. 

Ha you beat me to it. Made my post before I saw yours. Now THIS is a map I want to see hang around. There’s actually room for amplification


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[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I’ve said since Jan I loved the sound of the 2/24/24 blizzard… well….

THIS to me looks more conducive for a classic storm than anything I see before imo, but we’ll see

It is wayyyy out there obviously





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Damn.