SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 10:59 PM, Maestrobjwa said: The past couple years since that upgrade (what was that, 2022?) the GFS has been king...of the bizarre. Expand Its been lousy this winter...I thought it was my imagination til someone in the SNE forum posted the numbers....the last 2 winters the wildly progressive pattern and NRN Stream dominance due to the La Nina played into its natural biases but the El Nino this winter with a more active SRN Stream its not been as good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 That really is one hell of a blocky look across the HL region. The hellacious 50-50 low says hold my beer to the impressive Aleutian low. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 sheesh 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 11:32 PM, brooklynwx99 said: sheesh Expand These radical h5 looks need to produce something big. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 11:12 PM, CAPE said: That really is one hell of a blocky look across the HL region. The hellacious 50-50 low says hold my beer to the impressive Aleutian low. Expand This is only 8 days away. I am getting stoked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 11:12 PM, CAPE said: The hellacious 50-50 low says hold my beer to the impressive Aleutian low. Expand Yeah, those are the two biggest pieces in historical KU storms. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 11:32 PM, brooklynwx99 said: sheesh Expand Hopefully that block over Alaska holds the same strength in future runs.. https://ibb.co/LQxBQvy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 11:41 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, those are the two biggest pieces in KU storms. Expand Yep. A monster 50-50 low is especially noteworthy and often portends a major EC winter storm. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 11:36 PM, CAPE said: These radical h5 looks need to produce something big. Expand They are producing lots of adjectives and expletives 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 11:49 PM, CAPE said: Yep. A monster 50-50 low is especially noteworthy and often portends a major EC winter storm. Expand Actually, when the two pieces (GOA low and 50/50) have greater -anomaly than the +blocking, it's an even better signal (like the map you posted). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 11:49 PM, CAPE said: Yep. A monster 50-50 low is especially noteworthy and often portends a major EC winter storm. Expand this is very very nice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Getting closer to something for around PD. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 11:55 PM, brooklynwx99 said: Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 11:54 PM, CAPE said: Getting closer to something for around PD. Expand Guidance is slowing down the STJ wave which gives it more is a chance to catch a phase with the NS. Actually Im not even sure it’s the same wave we were tracking a few days ago. That one gets totally squashed around the 18th. What was two waves after is now one stronger wave on the GEFS. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:20 AM, psuhoffman said: Guidance is slowing down the STJ wave which gives it more is a chance to catch a phase with the NS. Actually Im not even sure it’s the same wave we were tracking a few days ago. That one gets totally squashed around the 18th. What was two waves after is now one stronger wave on the GEFS. Expand yup, you get the second more potent shortwave behind it 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 WB 18Z GEFS snow mean trending nicely... 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:34 AM, brooklynwx99 said: yup, you get the second more potent shortwave behind it Expand Wait I thought he was referring to the PD period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:43 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Wait I thought he was referring to the PD perido? Expand there's the 20-21st and another wave around the 24th behind it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:43 AM, brooklynwx99 said: there's the 20-21st and another wave around the 24th behind it Expand Ohh okay. Yeah he talked about the wave slowing down and catching up to the ns which is why I thought he was talking about PD period. Man I like that one better...besides it's a Nino and PD weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:45 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Ohh okay. Yeah he talked about the wave slowing down and catching up to the ns which is why I thought he was talking about PD period. Man I like that one better...besides it's a Nino and PD weekend Expand The Lord has to make it snow on Presidents Day weekend. Can you imagine getting a big storm like one day after Presidents day when we have been waiting years for PD3? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:52 AM, Ji said: The Lord has to make it snow on Presidents Day weekend. Can you imagine getting a big storm like one day after Presidents day when we have been waiting years for PD3? Expand And the day after Presidents' Day, he rested!?!? Yeah, I swear, if the storm cannot happen on that day so we can officially declare it PD3, then screw it, we shouldn't get a storm at all and let's not get any other snow the rest of this winter!!! (This is extreme sarcasm, by the way!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:43 AM, brooklynwx99 said: there's the 20-21st and another wave around the 24th behind it Expand That wave around the 24th has been one that many here have honed in on as the "better" opportunity, I believe? Though don't rule out something just before that either (PD or just after). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 1:00 AM, Scarlet Pimpernel said: And the day after Presidents' Day, he rested!?!? Yeah, I swear, if the storm cannot happen on that day so we can officially declare it PD3, then screw it, we shouldn't get a storm at all and let's not get any other snow the rest of this winter!!! (This is extreme sarcasm, by the way!!) Expand Lol Hey don't get me wrong, I'll take a big snow any day of the week...I just illogically don't trust stuff to go right after PD-March 1st....at least for a big storm (12"+) anyway. No changing that part of me brain until it actually happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:52 AM, Ji said: The Lord has to make it snow on Presidents Day weekend. Can you imagine getting a big storm like one day after Presidents day when we have been waiting years for PD3? Expand While He doesn't HAVE to do it, I'd sure love it if He did And hey listen, while I'd certainly take a big snow whatever day of the week...but man, how can ya not at least imagine that? I mean you've got ingredients...and it's a Niño that's not a torch, a strong stj wave coming up PD weekend, blocking...theoretically it feels like it's the closest setup we've had for a PD3 since. But hey, maybe I'm being to snow-romantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Since we're between model cycles, the part of my brain that, for whatever reason attaches meaning to dates and such just can't get past this list...Top 25 snowstorms in Baltimore and not a one the last week of Feb...Even 2010 missed that week! Have an illogical distrust of it... Side note: All the ones I marked happened on PD weekend that year...just sayin' (although 2014 was technically Thurs-Fri) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 1:36 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Since we're between model cycles, the part of my brain that, for whatever reason attaches meaning to dates and such just can't get past this list...Top 25 and not a one the last week of Feb...Even 2010 missed! Don't trust it Side note: All the ones I marked happened on PD weekend thar year...just sayin' Expand since feb 20(some duplicates) also climo is barely different from feb 18 and 3-5 days later, no reason to think that w a pattern like this we cant get a big snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 1:36 AM, Maestrobjwa said: [top 25 Baltimore snowstorms] Expand https://ibb.co/M6BjFBy I personally don't mind having a ridge over Alaska.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 1:46 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: https://ibb.co/M6BjFBy I personally don't mind having a ridge over Alaska.. Expand yeah all that matters that the jet is extended the right amount which we have here, that js usually comes with +EPO/alaskan trough epo isnt js alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now