MD Snow Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Euro has some flakes nearby on the 16th as cold air pushes inThis disturbance has been showing on guidance on and off for a while now. Might be a way to luck into something, especially if it falls at night. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 thoughts on hour 240 of Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 29 minutes ago, Shad said: thoughts on hour 240 of Euro? Probably going to be wrong, so hopefully I will be corrected if so, but I don't think we like what h5 showed at 240 Ridge is not where we want it out west, in fact, it seems to be on top of the system. There's a strong s/w crashing into CA, which is lowering the heights and pushing our ridge into the Plains instead of the Rockies where we want it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Probably going to be wrong, so hopefully I will be corrected if so, but I don't think we like what h5 showed at 240 Ridge is not where we want it out west, in fact, it seems to be on top of the system. There's a strong s/w crashing into CA, which is lowering the heights and pushing our ridge into the Plains instead of the Rockies where we want it. Yea control confirms it’s squashed everything and retrogrades the block all the way into central southern Canada. But eps looks much better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 EPS also ejects an amplifying wave for the 23rd. wild how clearly this shows up along with the PNA spike and decaying block. very favorable hemispheric look. this is the best threat IMO 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 59 minutes ago, Shad said: thoughts on hour 240 of Euro? We finally got a west-based -NAO block.. but there is a piece of the PV in NW Canada retrograding to possibly encroach on Alaska. That could fill the country with mild air.. A few days before then we have a block over Alaska, so that's a pretty big difference in a short amount of time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, Shad said: thoughts on hour 240 of Euro? It's hour 240 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 47 minutes ago, yoda said: Probably going to be wrong, so hopefully I will be corrected if so, but I don't think we like what h5 showed at 240 Ridge is not where we want it out west, in fact, it seems to be on top of the system. There's a strong s/w crashing into CA, which is lowering the heights and pushing our ridge into the Plains instead of the Rockies where we want it. Agreed, ridge too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 31 minutes ago, Yeoman said: It's hour 240 Thoughts on HR 300 on GFS 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Presidents Day threat takes a little while to get going... but that qpf field... woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Looks good.. we have time. Upper latitude pattern is good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Presidents Day threat takes a little while to get going Yeeeah sorting this out might take a bit...we won't know anything about this until...next Thursday By then we'll either be preparing to by PD3 stuff or trying to track the PSU storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 11 minutes ago, yoda said: Presidents Day threat takes a little while to get going... but that qpf field... woof It somehow unfathomably misses two phases and then partially catches the 3rd. Bizarre. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeeeah sorting this out might take a bit...we won't know anything about this until...next Thursday By then we'll either be preparing to by PD3 stuff or trying to track the PSU storm! It will all sort out and settle down by about March 20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, WxUSAF said: It somehow unfathomably misses two phases and then partially catches the 3rd. Bizarre. The past couple years since that upgrade (what was that, 2022?) the GFS has been king...of the bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Even closer to a phase, but looks weird. Still liking where we are now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: The past couple years since that upgrade (what was that, 2022?) the GFS has been king...of the bizarre. Its been lousy this winter...I thought it was my imagination til someone in the SNE forum posted the numbers....the last 2 winters the wildly progressive pattern and NRN Stream dominance due to the La Nina played into its natural biases but the El Nino this winter with a more active SRN Stream its not been as good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 That really is one hell of a blocky look across the HL region. The hellacious 50-50 low says hold my beer to the impressive Aleutian low. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 sheesh 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: sheesh These radical h5 looks need to produce something big. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: That really is one hell of a blocky look across the HL region. The hellacious 50-50 low says hold my beer to the impressive Aleutian low. This is only 8 days away. I am getting stoked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 32 minutes ago, CAPE said: The hellacious 50-50 low says hold my beer to the impressive Aleutian low. Yeah, those are the two biggest pieces in historical KU storms. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: sheesh Hopefully that block over Alaska holds the same strength in future runs.. https://ibb.co/LQxBQvy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, those are the two biggest pieces in KU storms. Yep. A monster 50-50 low is especially noteworthy and often portends a major EC winter storm. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: These radical h5 looks need to produce something big. They are producing lots of adjectives and expletives 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yep. A monster 50-50 low is especially noteworthy and often portends a major EC winter storm. Actually, when the two pieces (GOA low and 50/50) have greater -anomaly than the +blocking, it's an even better signal (like the map you posted). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yep. A monster 50-50 low is especially noteworthy and often portends a major EC winter storm. this is very very nice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Getting closer to something for around PD. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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