Dabuckeyes Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Banana High there? Looks like a great setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 bruh 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Oh my… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 It misses the phase. Slides the NS over the top instead of phasing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Even short pumped gets fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Exit stage right or does she come up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 This has huge potential if it phases. It’s not as simple as a straight Nino stj setup though so don’t expect stable solution to snow at crazy leads. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 thats a setup that ends up clobbering Raleigh to Richmond...of course this will change a ton over time........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said: Exit stage right or does she come up the coast? Once it missed the phase with the NS it was game over. The stj wave can’t gain latitude with that NS flow right over top of us. We need a phase for this to work at our latitude. It’s why I pegged the next wave as the better chance. Because by then the NS should be relaxing and maybe a stj wave can work without needed a complicated scenario. But this has huge huge potential if it does in fact pjase. Gfs was super close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Guidance hasn’t even resolved the Feb 13-14 wave yet. Were a long way from having any clarity on this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Low still creeping off Carolina coast 18z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 That was close to a big dog. Just missed the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Once it missed the phase with the NS it was game over. The stj wave can’t gain latitude with that NS flow right over top of us. We need a phase for this to work at our latitude. It’s why I pegged the next wave as the better chance. Because by then the NS should be relaxing and maybe a stj wave can work without needed a complicated scenario. But this has huge huge potential if it does in fact pjase. Gfs was super close. This is basically the solution the gfs had yesterday and the day before with the NS running ahead and the souther steam wave running the boundary. Just a bit farther south. Southeast weenies getting a case of the vapors over this run though… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: bruh We need this emoji as a standard option on here. Who's got access to that?? @stormtracker? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This is basically the solution the gfs had yesterday and the day before with the NS running ahead and the souther steam wave running the boundary. Just a bit farther south. Southeast weenies getting a case of the vapors over this run though… The gfs is slowly getting to the blocking the other guidance has. So it’s shifting this weird solution south. In the end once the gfs adjusts to reality I don’t thing this evolution can work for us. The boundary is going to be much further south than the gfs thinks because it’s not resolving the block correctly. In the end the only way I see the PD threat working is if a NS wave can dig in behind the stj wave and phase/buckle the flow and bomb it up the coast. There are a couple NS waves that could do it. Euro control was very close last night but missed the phase by a hair. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The gfs is slowly getting to the blocking the other guidance has. So it’s shifting this weird solution south. In the end once the gfs adjusts to reality I don’t thing this evolution can work for us. The boundary is going to be much further south than the gfs thinks because it’s not resolving the block correctly. In the end the only way I see the PD threat working is if a NS wave can dig in behind the stj wave and phase/buckle the flow and bomb it up the coast. There are a couple NS waves that could do it. Euro control was very close last night but missed the phase by a hair. Wasn't there a storm recently like this? Like in the past 10 years or so? Maybe 15? Not the insane amounts... but it crushed RAH to around RIC... EZF got a few inches... but once you got near DCA it was green grass. I'm not sure if it was because of blocking... but I distinctly remember traveling up i95 and having to stop overnight in NC because the roads were so bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Wasn't there a storm recently like this? Like in the past 10 years or so? Maybe 15? Not the insane amounts... but it crushed RAH to around RIC... EZF got a few inches... but once you got near DCA it was green grass. I'm not sure if it was because of blocking... but I distinctly remember traveling up i95 and having to stop overnight in NC because the roads were so badNot sure how far south Dec. 2018 got but that sounds close 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The gfs is slowly getting to the blocking the other guidance has. So it’s shifting this weird solution south. In the end once the gfs adjusts to reality I don’t thing this evolution can work for us. The boundary is going to be much further south than the gfs thinks because it’s not resolving the block correctly. In the end the only way I see the PD threat working is if a NS wave can dig in behind the stj wave and phase/buckle the flow and bomb it up the coast. There are a couple NS waves that could do it. Euro control was very close last night but missed the phase by a hair. CMC is setting up for later 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: CMC is setting up for later Yea if you look at the better guidance than the gfs they all are way more aggressive with the blocking and thus have a further south boundary for the period. That is bad for the PD threat unless there is a phased bomb. But it sets up Feb 21-24 period nicely. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not sure how far south Dec. 2018 got but that sounds close I live in Wilson NC right along I-95, (hang out here because the analysis is top notch). December 2018 just petered out in my area. i got 3 - 4 sloppy inches that then mostly got washed away when it changed to rain. Just a bit west it was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 love this look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: love this look Honest question for one wanting to learn: what do you like about it? I see a modest Idaho ridge and some SJ vorticity floating along. I know that is nice in general but what is especially exciting about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Honest question for one wanting to learn: what do you like about it? I see a modest Idaho ridge and some SJ vorticity floating along. I know that is nice in general but what is especially exciting about it? I think there could be some phasing between 2 jet streams. Temps are an issue right now though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea if you look at the better guidance than the gfs they all are way more aggressive with the blocking and thus have a further south boundary for the period. That is bad for the PD threat unless there is a phased bomb. But it sets up Feb 21-24 period nicely. GEFS has been consistently suppressed for the PD3 wave. 12z looks a little closer but still pretty far south and OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 17 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Honest question for one wanting to learn: what do you like about it? I see a modest Idaho ridge and some SJ vorticity floating along. I know that is nice in general but what is especially exciting about it? open flow, confluence, and southern stream vorts. cold air isn't an issue with an actual storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 here's why I like the 24th... the Pacific trough retros and you have a big amplification signal downstream as the block decays and confluence lessens. it's a recipe for a big storm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Euro has some flakes nearby on the 16th as cold air pushes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I like the PD period the best, It still looks good in the upper latitudes. The cold pattern is breaking down, maybe too fast for the 24th (on 12z GEFS).. We are already marginal for Presidents Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I like the PD period the best, It still looks good in the upper latitudes. The cold pattern is breaking down, maybe too fast for the 24th (on 12z GEFS).. We are already marginal for Presidents Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The gfs is slowly getting to the blocking the other guidance has. So it’s shifting this weird solution south. In the end once the gfs adjusts to reality I don’t thing this evolution can work for us. The boundary is going to be much further south than the gfs thinks because it’s not resolving the block correctly. In the end the only way I see the PD threat working is if a NS wave can dig in behind the stj wave and phase/buckle the flow and bomb it up the coast. There are a couple NS waves that could do it. Euro control was very close last night but missed the phase by a hair. Screw it I'm rooting for the phased bomb to get a shot at PD3...come on NS! Actually at the end of the 12z Euro those potential NS waves are still around (this time we actually want one of those, haha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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