Bob Chill Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 28 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Kiss. the chili peppers suggested to suck your kiss… Just don't include that with "the socks" album cover 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Iirc someone noted yesterday how we don't want the PD3 system unless we are hoping for a 1 and done. Destroys the long term pattern or something. All eggs in one basket type thing. Suppose if it's the 6z gfs solution tho, most would make that sacrifice. meh there's no real way to know at all of it's one and done. blocking likely resurfaces from Scandinavia given the SPV weakening and the Aleutian low will retrograde. bird in the hand is worth two in the bush anyway 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: meh there's no real way to know at all of it's one and done. blocking likely resurfaces from Scandinavia given the SPV weakening and the Aleutian low will retrograde. bird in the hand is worth two in the bush anyway There's putting a cart before the horse and then there's Ralph. Worrying about a storm destroying future storm chances in a disastrous winter does not compute anywhere in my head. Might need a crtl/alt/delete or something 2 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: meh there's no real way to know at all of it's one and done. blocking likely resurfaces from Scandinavia given the SPV weakening and the Aleutian low will retrograde. bird in the hand is worth two in the bush anyway I see it....the NS phase the gfs is doing is good here. It was @psuhoffman that noted we wanted to see that and not the gfs way it had the PD3 systems prior 3 runs (amplifying the ns to our n and flattening the flow). This and and the euro can work and retain the pattern moving forward. Perfect! Awesome to see the ops sensing the HL blocking now and reflecting at the surface. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: meh there's no real way to know at all of it's one and done. blocking likely resurfaces from Scandinavia given the SPV weakening and the Aleutian low will retrograde. bird in the hand is worth two in the bush anyway It’s part of the weenie handbook. Sacrifice storm X to get storm Y. Not worth entertaining another thought, though… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 whoops meant to say that the Pacific trough off the WC will retrograde into more of a typical Aleutian low. whatevs lmao 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Analogs capturing the blocking aren't really showing much for us here in the big dept. Blizzard of 78 time period showing up but that was a dream crusher event here. But just bad breaks. Track was great it just didn't rip in time. Other than that, everything remains mixy/messy/pasty. Feb 05 and 07 storms have been showing at times. No classics though. Been that way all year for most of the east nearly all the time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6z GEFS for the 20th. Not bad. On the northern fringe but its frozen lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 SOI continues to tank yet again with a -32 for the daily contribution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's putting a cart before the horse and then there's Ralph. Worrying about a storm destroying future storm chances in a disastrous winter does not compute anywhere in my head. Might need a crtl/alt/delete or something If I could lock in the 6z gfs and call it a winter after PD3 I'm in. A SECS then a high end MECS. All within a weeks time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12 hours ago, stormtracker said: Fucking human pendulums up in here. I'm dizzy. Suicide by trampoline. Everyone was jumping last night after 18Z and hit the trampoline back up to the 0Z and 6Z runs. Weather tracking is fun isn't it? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: If I could lock in the 6z gfs and call it a winter after PD3 I'm in. A SECS then a high end MECS. All within a weeks time. This just my gut talking and it's too far away to think much about, but I keep thinking the first 10 days of March will be the ripest period for the MA. Maybe active instead of big dog stuff. We'll see how it goes. March wavelengths are volatile. We generally don't go into March with a mid winter storm pattern. Good blocking years have shot their load by March. I can't think of many (or any) Marches with a mean pattern that's showing on weekly/monthly guidance. I'm curious 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 40 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GEFS for the 20th. Not bad. On the northern fringe but its frozen lol potent signal as the Pacific trough retrogrades is still showing up. this is the best shot at a MECS IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 WB 6Z GEFS also very good run.... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 like this is where it's at. really nice evolution here, and it makes sense PNA ridge spike, weakening block, and southern stream vort slips underneath the flow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Iirc someone noted yesterday how we don't want the PD3 system unless we are hoping for a 1 and done. Destroys the long term pattern or something. All eggs in one basket type thing. Suppose if it's the 6z gfs solution tho, most would make that sacrifice. Don't look a gift horse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 13 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How ya feeling now? It's a mixed bag beyond the range of the ECM and GEM. The 06Z GFS is a huge winner giving me 19 inches!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 8 minutes ago, stormy said: It's a mixed bag beyond the range of the ECM and GEM. The 06Z GFS is a huge winner giving me 19 inches!!!!!!! Lube up that measuring stick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The 6GFS is picking up on a strong High near the Canadian border.....it appears that the CMC and Euro may have it too.....this will ultimately drive the PD storm.....if that high is as strong as advertised this should be a nice event for most of Virginia 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Iirc someone noted yesterday how we don't want the PD3 system unless we are hoping for a 1 and done. Destroys the long term pattern or something. All eggs in one basket type thing. Suppose if it's the 6z gfs solution tho, most would make that sacrifice. I did but that was specific to how the gfs was getting to it yesterday with a weird unlikely progression that never developed a block at all. The one storm was unlikely to actually work and it would have meant nothing after either. The latest gfs run is different. But it’s still handling the high latitudes somewhat differently than other more reliable guidance day 10-15. However the euro took a huge move towards phasing the NS and STJ for the pd threat also. Yes of that happens it could become another mega 50/50 and suppress that next wave but who cares then it would set up another threat around Feb 25 instead of Feb 21-23. We just want the wave train under the block to set up. Not worried about the specifics on individual waves yet. I want to see what other guidance has to say today. I don’t put much stock in the gfs when it’s alone. It’s been pretty awful lately. Frankly I give it about as much weight when it’s off on its own as I would the icon or some other obscure data point like the JMA. But the eps is honking like crazy now for one of these waves to hit us in the day 10-20 period (if you include the eps ext). But the wave specifics aren’t resolved yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: This just my gut talking and it's too far away to think much about, but I keep thinking the first 10 days of March will be the ripest period for the MA. Maybe active instead of big dog stuff. We'll see how it goes. March wavelengths are volatile. We generally don't go into March with a mid winter storm pattern. Good blocking years have shot their load by March. I can't think of many (or any) Marches with a mean pattern that's showing on weekly/monthly guidance. I'm curious 2018 had great Atlantic locking but a mediocre pac due to the Nina. Shorter wavelengths mitigate the Nina central pac ridge in March which is why often if we get a snowstorm in a Nina it’s March but it’s still not ideal. There haven’t been many ninos where the block set in this late. You have to go back to 1964 and 1958 to find a comp March Nino pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Checked guidance this morning... Nothing has changed. The waiting is the worst part. Cliche but true 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Is it bad when you are excited to see what the GFS is showing at hour 240 on the 12z run. What a stupid hobby 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 13 minutes ago, Shad said: Is it bad when you are excited to see what the GFS is showing at hour 240 on the 12z run. What a stupid hobby Isn't that pretty much what we always do? Usually that's the only timeframe to see a storm anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 20 minutes ago, Shad said: Is it bad when you are excited to see what the GFS is showing at hour 240 on the 12z run. What a stupid hobby I'm glad I'm not the only one. The waiting between runs is ridiculous. We are a strange bunch. I talk about this stuff at work and people look at me like I'm crazy. They just want to know if we will have a snow day or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 13 hours ago, Solution Man said: 10 days away Always 10 days away 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 thoughts on GFS rolling out hour 222 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 my thought is "holy shit" 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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