Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: did it occur to you that most ninos fade late in winter or spring and that’s just part of the typical process. There is a lag effect. That’s why Nina’s that fade do us no good. That’s a common misconception I dispelled a couple years ago. Nina’s that faded fast during winter actually had worse Feb/March snowfall! If the Nino fades now it won’t impact the pattern for another month or two at the earliest. I would argue that there's not enough data. The daily-specific research I did of that central subsurface cold or warm pool posted a PNA-correlation, no time. I found that Strong Nino years that had negative subsurface water, were more likely to be warm and snowless with SE ridge (there weren't many if any Nina's I can think of that had warm subsurface pool, the opposite of that pattern). If you look at the PNA pattern as Pacific-North America, those Strong Nino/cold subsurface Winter's fit 2/3 variables in the -PNA index (cold West, warm East). Some like 72-73 fit 3/3 parts of the index. I think if you had enough data you would see that there probably are differences late Winter if the Nino subsurface remains strong/neutral, or flips to a Nina-like state. Off the top of my head, these are the Strong Nino/negative subsurface March's: https://ibb.co/kXN8QWs 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 10 days away 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Since there's not much activity... Since 1998, top 7 +Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 8.3, bottom 4 Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 2.2. We are at 1.97, the 3rd lowest on record in that time, fitting the extreme situation guideline. https://ibb.co/2vrfcHK Here are the top 11 +analogs for March.. based on Feb's NG price: https://ibb.co/6wKqgDf https://ibb.co/Hp0zZqW ^that's Feb NG price rolled forward into March (so a +1 month lead time) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, Solution Man said: 10 days away LMFAO! That guy is SOOOOOOO happy to be diggin snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Weve been chasing 7+ days since mid December. We got an excellent run for 7 -8 days over two weeks ago. Archaic models and this new environment we are in, and weather forecasting is rapidly falling behind all other sciences. Now plenty will tell me how I Should Be Looking at it but I live in reality. This has been a great hobby and I continue to do the recordings and we are in many cities now. But this model chasing fantasy has worn out. I love obs threads in situation but frankly all the rest of it is just myriad and myriad of ever changing examples of what might could possibly happen .That creates nothing positive for me anymore. Hitting one out of every ten targets is frustration and that’s not a hobby see you again when snow is in reality on the way or occurring See ya for the 00Z model runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, Solution Man said: 10 days away This needs to be on the emoji board here! Mods, make it happen 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 UMMM hour 138 GFS anyone umm!! Anyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Temps crashing at that point. Still in the mid 30s but rates could overcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 See ya for the 00Z model runsLol funniest thing you ever saidSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 UMMM hour 138 GFS anyone umm!! Anyone! Do tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Do tell Take away storm further south, cold air crashing in, temps falling to 32 in SE PA with 9-11" of snow and falling to 34 with 3-6" in Baltimore not a dumpster fire LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Um guys.. not sure if anyone is getting this faster.. but the GFS looks like it might go off again.. could be wrong. but that 1039 HP isnt really budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Um guys.. not sure if anyone is getting this faster.. but the GFS looks like it might go off again.. could be wrong. but that 1039 HP isnt really budging. Not enough CAD to make that work this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 GfsCmcSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs Cmc Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Pour North Dakota 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 PsuSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Wet signal for psu stormSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Euro is close to setting up a phase for the PD storm. It’s digging a strong NS SW down behind the stj wave day 10. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Euro is close to setting up a phase for the PD storm. It’s digging a strong NS SW down behind the stj wave day 10. My snow chart lit up last Night like Howard's 202 936 1212 number Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 PD3 is back on 6z gfs. 18-30” for the mountains. 10-15” for the metros. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Lol I'll take the gfs pd3 solution and call it a winter!Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 PD3 is back on 6z gfs. 18-30” for the mountains. 10-15” for the metros.Long duration event. Higher upside potential if a tad colderSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 EpsSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 WB 6Z GFS, best GFS run all winter on my birthday!!!! ( Total, storm 1, storm 2) MADE MY DAY!!! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: PD3 is back on 6z gfs. 18-30” for the mountains. 10-15” for the metros. You got digital blue? Can I get a hit, man? Come on... I need it, man. I'll suck your... never mind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Kiss. the chili peppers suggested to suck your kiss… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 29 minutes ago, dailylurker said: You got digital blue? Can I get a hit, man? Come on... I need it, man. I'll suck your... never mind. Extrapolated 6z gfs looks awful for the psu storm though. Disappointing 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Extrapolated 6z gfs looks awful for the psu storm though. Disappointing Iirc someone noted yesterday how we don't want the PD3 system unless we are hoping for a 1 and done. Destroys the long term pattern or something. All eggs in one basket type thing. Suppose if it's the 6z gfs solution tho, most would make that sacrifice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 35 minutes ago, dailylurker said: You got digital blue? Can I get a hit, man? Come on... I need it, man. I'll suck your... never mind. We are getting so damn desperate, we are in brand-new territory. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Found a good use for snow maps lol. Good visual here of last 7 gfs runs for vday period. Scattershot/unresolved at first but last 4 runs show a clear trend and it's caused by upper air patten trying to find any way to press down into this wave. Yea, temps are disastrous I get that but we're in a state of massive flux in the high latitudes. There is still a real opportunity. Until that vanishes it's hard for me to look beyond. This isn't a setup you can just dismiss yet imo only 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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