anotherman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 We really need more posts with h5 anomaly maps. I have no idea what the upcoming pattern is supposed going to look like. Heard something about a missing -NAO?It’s like mom and dad left for a bit and the house was ransacked and burnt down. 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 48 minutes ago, snowfan said: Shhhh…..it’s the storm after the storm after the storm. Weve been chasing 7+ days since mid December. We got an excellent run for 7 -8 days over two weeks ago. Archaic models and this new environment we are in, and weather forecasting is rapidly falling behind all other sciences. Now plenty will tell me how I Should Be Looking at it but I live in reality. This has been a great hobby and I continue to do the recordings and we are in many cities now. But this model chasing fantasy has worn out. I love obs threads in situation but frankly all the rest of it is just myriad and myriad of ever changing examples of what might could possibly happen .That creates nothing positive for me anymore. Hitting one out of every ten targets is frustration and that’s not a hobby see you again when snow is in reality on the way or occurring 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s an ensemble at day 10-15. It’s not going to have a ton of closed contours The 18z OP GFS never closes off a block.. except one over England. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 40 minutes ago, CAPE said: Maybe that op run PD cutter will move the suppression needle on the 18z GEFS. Nope. Probably should root for a few more op run cutters to shift the hive northward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 this is a highly anomalous blocking signal... we're talking 250-350m anomalies at like 13 days out 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 When IAD posted the 80 degree January day, the rolled forward analogs of similar occurrances at +17-20 days showed a -150dm +AO signal... At the time, there was a lot of LR data showing the opposite, but the ground truth has proven advantage over LR models a lot of times... it seems like they are heavily weighing ENSO climo, when it has been obvious that we've been having these mid-latitude/Hadley Cell high pressure problems for a few Winters now. I like to look outside, look at the clouds, and sort of make a LR assessment going forward. It did look like we were in a "calm before the storm" pattern the last few days.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The 18z OP GFS never closes off a block.. except one over England. The op gfs is likely wrong. It’s all alone. And it’s a garbage model. It’s scoring worse than the Euro, ggem, Ukmet and even the icon last I saw! But ok if you’re basing this off the op gfs then yes it’s a garbage pattern. The op gfs never develops the block. But I’m doing what you should when the gfs has no support. Disregarding it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The op gfs is likely wrong. It’s all alone. And it’s a garbage model. It’s scoring worse than the Euro, ggem, Ukmet and even the icon last I saw! But ok if you’re basing this off the op gfs then yes it’s a garbage pattern. The op gfs never develops the block. But I’m doing what you should when the gfs has no support. Disregarding it. 3-4 days ago, OP models were showing P-type problems with the PD storm, when the upper latitude pattern on the ensembles has been near perfect! Since then, the ensembles have come in a little bit weaker with the blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 3-4 days ago, OP models were showing P-type problems with the P-Day storm, when the upper latitude pattern on the ensembles has been near perfect! Everything except the op gfs is suppressing the PD event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, psuhoffman said: Everything except the op gfs is suppressing the PD event. It's showed a hit 4 straight runs (00z-18z). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, psuhoffman said: Everything except the op gfs is suppressing the PD event. Hey maybe chucks definition of p type problems includes no precip … it wouldn’t surprise me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Nope. Probably should root for a few more op run cutters to shift the hive northward. But the gefs is ejecting more pac energy for the threat after PD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The op gfs is likely wrong. It’s all alone. And it’s a garbage model. It’s scoring worse than the Euro, ggem, Ukmet and even the icon last I saw! But ok if you’re basing this off the op gfs then yes it’s a garbage pattern. The op gfs never develops the block. But I’m doing what you should when the gfs has no support. Disregarding it. "weak blocking pattern" lol literally a pristine 2 sigma block over the Davis Strait at 300 hours out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's showed a hit 4 straight runs (00z-18z). Only the op gfs. I mostly disregard the op gfs. It’s fun to look at but it’s total complete garbage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: "weak blocking pattern" lol literally a pristine 2 sigma block over the Davis Strait at 300 hours out It seems he is basing his points solely on the op gfs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 hours ago, stormy said: I'll take this at 270. 3 consecutive runs. At 240 the GFS, ECM and GEM all have the goods brewing in the NW Gulf and S. Texas. It's a SLAM DUNK with all 3 on board at 240. Rather unusual. How ya feeling now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But the gefs is ejecting more pac energy for the threat after PD I was being facetious. The likely failure mode for PD is suppression, not a cutter. The window beyond looks more promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Fucking human pendulums up in here. I'm dizzy. 8 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I was being facetious. The likely failure mode for PD is suppression, not a cutter. The window beyond looks more promising.Gefs says suppressed pd but 2 days later 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 really nice evolution, can see the Rockies ridge spike as the Pacific trough retrogrades 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is a highly anomalous blocking signal... we're talking 250-350m anomalies at like 13 days out Gotta get that XXXXX porn on my av. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 PD looks suppressed for now. Pretty nice signal here. Plenty of spread at this range though. Best shot could be a couple days later. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: PD looks suppressed for now. Pretty nice signal here. Plenty of spread at this range though. Best shot could be a couple days later. nice to know that we will have multiple shots in the chamber. sign of an actual good pattern 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 with all of the agonizing over OP runs, we're still looking at a cold, active pattern with a tall AK ridge, west based -NAO blocking, confluence, and a Pacific trough undercutting. the more you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, the more things look the same 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: This is day 10-15 eps When you average heights across 5 days, the composite often looks better than it really is. A trof axis too far west followed by cold NW mid-level flow often produces a great averaged 500mb anomaly. But that's a rain to dry scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, Solution Man said: Yea I should have been more specific I laughed at the 18z GFS and I don't believe at all what it was selling. I do not take many 18z runs "off runs" very seriously. Looks like it went out to lunch! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: Weve been chasing 7+ days since mid December. We got an excellent run for 7 -8 days over two weeks ago. Archaic models and this new environment we are in, and weather forecasting is rapidly falling behind all other sciences. Now plenty will tell me how I Should Be Looking at it but I live in reality. This has been a great hobby and I continue to do the recordings and we are in many cities now. But this model chasing fantasy has worn out. I love obs threads in situation but frankly all the rest of it is just myriad and myriad of ever changing examples of what might could possibly happen .That creates nothing positive for me anymore. Hitting one out of every ten targets is frustration and that’s not a hobby see you again when snow is in reality on the way or occurring I'm sorry, I've read your comments on this issue for some time and just have to go into a bit of a rant here, because I deal with numerical models myself to some extent... This has to be one of the most ignorant takes on "models" I've ever seen. I get that you're not overly fond of numerical weather models, ensembles, etc., as I've seen you say on more than one occasion essentially that "all they do is show you every possible outcome to cover all bases..,." or whatever (and I strongly disagree with that sentiment). Or at the least you sure leave that impression. Whatever, and to each their own, but I think this all shows a serious lack of understanding on how modeling systems work and how they should be used/interpreted, and is an insulting slap in the face to the scientists who develop this guidance. Doesn't matter if some posters in a weather forum like here live and die by every single ops model solution at 200+ hours, which I agree can get annoying. But that is not a statement on numerical weather prediction itself. One cannot be serious that weather forecasting has rapidly fallen behind other sciences due to, as you call them, "archaic models." You cannot seriously believe that our understanding of weather systems now is worse than it was in the early or pre-modeling days. Perhaps you're right in the end, that you should just show up in the obs threads when a storm actually does occur. But don't criticize based upon weenieish comments that you read in here and mistake that for what numerical modelers and forecasters believe. 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Fucking human pendulums up in here. I'm dizzy. Yup, it's almost hypnotic!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Another variable we should consider is that we are rapidly losing this El Nino, to possibly La Nina conditions. Here's the latest subsurface map. https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY There is usually a direct correlation between the black box area and the N. Pacific PNA, but the SOI has been severely negative, so that may be overpowering otherwise weak indicators right now.. but eventually, I think we do need to worry about -PNA conditions developing sometime in the early Spring. Maybe even sooner.. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Another variable we should consider is that we are rapidly losing this El Nino, to possibly La Nina conditions. Here's the latest subsurface map. https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY There is usually a direct correlation between the black box area and the N. Pacific PNA, but the SOI has been severely negative, so that may be overpowering otherwise weak indicators right now.. but eventually, I think we do need to worry about -PNA conditions developing sometime in the early Spring. Maybe even sooner.. did it occur to you that most ninos fade late in winter or spring and that’s just part of the typical process. There is a lag effect. That’s why Nina’s that fade do us no good. That’s a common misconception I dispelled a couple years ago. Nina’s that faded fast during winter actually had worse Feb/March snowfall! If the Nino fades now it won’t impact the pattern for another month or two at the earliest. ETA: the Nino in 1964 faded mid winter and by May we were in La Niña but it didn’t impact the pattern at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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