T. August Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Well…let’s all hope the gfs isn’t on to something. . I thought we wanted a Memphis-Chicago storm track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I mean.. we have a block over Alaska. But we lost the NAO, I knew this would be a wild card.. it's been so hard for us to have multiple -NAO's since 2013, either that or they are associated with a SE ridge lately. and the +PNA is much weaker. Look at that High in the SW Pacific. https://ibb.co/CBMrnpV 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @stormybe careful of that gfs storm. It’s alone. And frankly I’m not even rooting for it because it gets to that solution because it never develops the nao block and swings a NS wave over is which opens the door to that stj wave to come north. But it’s a weird convoluted evolution with high bust potential and if that general progression is correct that’s our only shot as it totally breaks down the pattern after. No thanks. Give me the all other guidance solution. Maybe it means no PD storm but it leads to a long extends window of opportunity not just a low probability one off. I hear ya! The 240 big 3 were close in the NW Gulf at 12z and the extended GFS op produced with support from the GEFS. The 18 GFS has went to crap in the OV. The Weeklies still look good Feb 21 - Mar. 20 and the potentially suppressive block has diminished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Ugly GfS run i will pretend I never saw. Atmospheric river 2.0 hits California. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 12 days to go until the 18z GFS op run PD cutter that won't verify, and Chuck's lost -NAO. Some here definitely aren't going to make it. 3 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: Ugly GfS run i will pretend I never saw. Atmospheric river 2.0 hits California. Wow, a 1057 mb High over Eastern Canada and rain here . i will call it an OP at range and its the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Maybe that op run PD cutter will move the suppression needle on the 18z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18Z GFS 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18z GFS wow! What -NAO LOL... What a dumpster fire! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Ugly GfS run i will pretend I never saw. Atmospheric river 2.0 hits California. California will get the ARKStorm before we see a MECS ever again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: 18z GFS wow! What -NAO LOL... What a dumpster fire! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'm not really impressed right now.. we seem to be in a Hadley Cell expansion/mid-latitude High pressure regime that is holding through all of this tendency toward blocking that we are/have been heading into. This is day 10-15 eps Seriously how good of a pattern do you think we need? This is a serious question. Because sure there are some super minor things I could be hyper critical of. Sure ideally I’d move the pac trough west just a smidge. I guess the -nao could be -3 stdv instead of just -2. But my god that’s way more good than bad. It’s the best pattern we’ve had in many years. It’s probably a better pattern than we see at all at any time in 90% of winters. And you’re like “meh” it’s not good enough. So seriously. Do you think we’re like Atlanta now and we need like a once in 100 year pattern to get a ton of snow or something? It’s not supposed to be this F$&@?#% hard! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 lol far too much weenie nonsense going on right now over A SINGLE 200+ hour OP run. Calm the fuck down y’all. Did we expect the GFS to hold a massive snowstorm for 200+ hours? Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles at this range. It’ll be back and gone again by tomorrow. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Time for a south trend baby 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Are we cliff jumping because of… one op gfs run? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 WB 12Z EPS. My concern is still suppression. Cold looks like it gets established but it is dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, Terpeast said: Are we cliff jumping because of… one op gfs run? lol OP GFS has been showing dumb shit for like two weeks that the GEFS doesn’t even agree with 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is day 10-15 eps Seriously how good of a pattern do you think we need? This is a serious question. Because sure there are some super minor things I could be hyper critical of. Sure ideally I’d move the pac trough west just a smidge. I guess the -nao could be -3 stdv instead of just -2. But my god that’s way more good than bad. It’s the best pattern we’ve had in many years. It’s probably a better pattern than we see at all at any time in 90% of winters. And you’re like “meh” it’s not good enough. So seriously. Do you think we’re like Atlanta now and we need like a once in 100 year pattern to get a ton of snow or something? It’s not supposed to be this F$&@?#% hard! I think we are creeping into some high latitude low pressures. Maybe somewhat over Alaska and southern Greenland/north of New Foundland, That's what been showing on a few of the recent OP runs, but we ignored it because of the ensemble means. This is not really showing right now on the averaged ensemble mean, but I've seen this cycle before it will start to get picked up in the coming days especially if they have multiple lows cutting up through the OV/Midwest. The blocking signal has weakened, but it might not be gone totally... but this is what I was saying before when you guys were posting analog-average-means of +250+dm -NAO's. Right now on the ensemble means its a pretty weak blocking signal, and it's waning in trend, but maybe it will still get better in the coming days, because we still have SSW's impacting the surface +time.. I think probably not though because we have this Hadley Cell expansion/mid latitude ridge showing itself again (like last March) in the CONUS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: lol far too much weenie nonsense going on right now over A SINGLE 200+ hour OP run. Calm the fuck down y’all. Did we expect the GFS to hold a massive snowstorm for 200+ hours? Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles at this range. It’ll be back and gone again by tomorrow. This By next weekend we're cold enough to snow per the GEFS. Idgaf about what the GfS says 11 days out lol. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Are we cliff jumping because of… one op gfs run? I'm more worried about suppression next Weekend lol. Definitely not an OV track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think we are creeping into some high latitude low pressures. Maybe somewhat over Alaska and southern Greenland/north of New Foundland, That's what been showing on a few of the recent OP runs, but we ignored it because of the ensemble means. This is not really showing right now on the averaged ensemble mean, but I've seen this cycle before it will start to get picked up in the coming days especially if they have multiple lows cutting up through the OV/Midwest. The blocking signal has weakened, but it might not be gone totally... but this is what I was saying before when you guys were posting analog-average-means of +250+dm -NAO's. Right now on the ensemble means its a pretty weak blocking signal, and it's waning in trend, but maybe it will still get better in the coming days, because we have SSW's impacting the surface +time.. I think probably not though because we have this Hadley Cell expansion/mid latitude ridge showing itself again (like last March) in the CONUS. pretty weak blocking signal? really? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think we are creeping into some high latitude low pressures. Maybe somewhat over Alaska and southern Greenland/north of New Foundland, That's what been showing on a few of the recent OP runs, but we ignored it because of the ensemble means. This is not really showing right now on the averaged ensemble mean, but I've seen this cycle before it will start to get picked up in the coming days especially if they have multiple lows cutting up through the OV/Midwest. The blocking signal has weakened, but it might not be gone totally... but this is what I was saying before when you guys were posting analog-average-means of +250+dm -NAO's. Right now on the ensemble means its a pretty weak blocking signal, and it's waning in trend, but maybe it will get better in the coming days.. I think probably not though because we have this Hadley Cell expansion/mid latitude ridge showing itself again (like last March) in the CONUS. Chuck, those run on sentences are insane man! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, Paleocene said: Does anybody have a link to a quick explainer for how SSW impacts things at other levels of the atmosphere? My eyes glaze over at 10mb zonal winds, but if I had any idea how this impacted the charts I do kind of understand thanks to this board (250mb, 500mb, 850mb, surface), it would really help. Thx! It’s a theory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: pretty weak blocking signal? really? I don't think it even really does do a block.. maybe 1 closed contour. It's weak compared to some recent blocks that we have seen, especially March 2023. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Hahaha this thread is nuts. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: It’s a theory You should run the data sometime, it's really educational. 10mb warmings, not coolings, are almost always followed by 500mb warmings over the N. Atlantic NAO region +time. Daily Climate Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory The study is good November through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I said this earlier. That PD weekend storm on the gfs is not likely to happen that way. And we don’t even want it too. The gfs is all alone with a wacky progression of the Atlantic blocking. Last few runs it left it in Scandanavia and that’s why it was able to bring the PD storm up. But that’s also why it was warm and looking at the thermals those snow solutions were precarious at best. This run it slits the block and is just wackadoo in some of its wave breaking. No way it’s close to right. Seriously pull up the N Hemisphere h5 and loop it. It’s nuts. We simply want to gfs to be wrong. Which it probably is. The way we want to possibly get a PD storm is for that NS wave to be further southwest and phase in. If it’s amplifying to our north which is what the GFS did to relax the flow and get the stj to come north, it means something’s gone horribly wrong in the whole pattern! Let’s just toss that crazy crap and assume the gfs is wrong. It was wrong with that snowstorm the last 3 runs (at least in the way it got to it) and it’s wrong now with the rainstorm. All other guidance does keep the Scandinavian block intact and retrogrades it into Greenland. All other guidance is currently suppressed for the PD threat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I said this earlier. That PD weekend storm on the gfs is not likely to happen that way. And we don’t even want it too. The gfs is all alone with a wacky progression of the Atlantic blocking. Last few runs it left it in Scandanavia and that’s why it was able to bring the PD storm up. But that’s also why it was warm and looking at the thermals those snow solutions were precarious at best. This run it slits the block and is just wackadoo in some of its wave breaking. No way it’s close to right. Seriously pull up the N Hemisphere h5 and loop it. It’s nuts. We simply want to gfs to be wrong. Which it probably is. The way we want to possibly get a PD storm is for that NS wave to be further southwest and phase in. If it’s amplifying to our north which is what the GFS did to relax the flow and get the stj to come north, it means something’s gone horribly wrong in the whole pattern! Let’s just toss that crazy crap and assume the gfs is wrong. It was wrong with that snowstorm the last 3 runs (at least in the way it got to it) and it’s wrong now with the rainstorm. All other guidance does keep the Scandinavian block intact and retrogrades it into Greenland. All other guidance is currently suppressed for the PD threat. GEFS looks like this. the OP is out to lunch 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: Hahaha this thread is nuts. We really need more posts with h5 anomaly maps. I have no idea what the upcoming pattern is supposed going to look like. Heard something about a missing -NAO? 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I don't think it even really does do a block.. maybe 1 closed contour. It's weak compared to some recent blocks that we have seen, especially March 2023. It’s an ensemble at day 10-15. It’s not going to have a ton of closed contours 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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