Maestrobjwa Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Euro looked like it was trying to load up at the end of it (ah c'mon one more frame ) You know, even for fantasy range, guidance has been rather consistent in developing a juicy wave in the ss. Other details have jumped around, of course, but that thing has been on all the gfs fantasy runs the last several days...and now it's popped up on the Euro the last couple runs. With things being less suppressive like @psuhoffman said becomes a trendN uh...hm? (Only one m so as not to copyright infringe Bob Chill) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I'll take this at 270. 3 consecutive runs. At 240 the GFS, ECM and GEM all have the goods brewing in the NW Gulf and S. Texas. It's a SLAM DUNK with all 3 on board at 240. Rather unusual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Euro looked like it was trying to load up at the end of it (ah c'mon one more frame ) You know, even for fantasy range, guidance has been rather consistent in developing a juicy wave in the ss. Other details have jumped around, of course, but that thing has been on all the gfs fantasy runs the last several days...and now it's popped up on the Euro the last couple runs. With things being less suppressive like @psuhoffman said becomes a trendN uh...hm? (Only one m so as not to copyright infringe Bob Chill) looks like it would of been suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Hey Ji! Digital blue! Digital blue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, Ji said: looks like it would of been suppressed Eh...hard to tell. Thought the wave was less squashed than 0z, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 16 minutes ago, stormy said: I'll take this at 270. 3 consecutive runs. At 240 the GFS, ECM and GEM all have the goods brewing in the NW Gulf and S. Texas. It's a SLAM DUNK with all 3 on board at 240. Rather unusual. You made a classic blunder. The first and most important is to never start a land war in Asia. The second, somewhat less known but equally as important, is never trust weather models showing snow in the Mid Atlantic until you see it on radar at your doorstep or out your window. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 50 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think the blocking signal looks kind of pathetic now on models.. models trended less +pna and less -nao in the last few days. Still has them dont get me wrong, but it looks like a "moderate" cold air situation. Am I wrong to think that COULD be an okay thing, in terms of making the chance of cold/dry/suppressed less of a possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 56 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think the blocking signal looks kind of pathetic now on models.. models trended less +pna and less -nao in the last few days. Still has them dont get me wrong, but it looks like a "moderate" cold air situation. I think that's basically what JB was alluding to earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: You made a classic blunder. The first and most important is to never start a land war in Asia. The second, somewhat less know but equally as important, is never trust weather models showing snow in the Mid Atlantic until you see it on radar at your doorstep or out your window. Yea man! I have even seen radar fail because the scan is about 12,000 ft. over Augusta. Radar has indicated snow for hours that all evaporated before reaching the surface. That virga can be a beast out here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Am I wrong to think that COULD be an okay thing, in terms of making the chance of cold/dry/suppressed less of a possibility? You could be in the dough with that bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 EPS seems to like Post PD more than PD. Feb 21-22. The PSU storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 17 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Am I wrong to think that COULD be an okay thing, in terms of making the chance of cold/dry/suppressed less of a possibility? Yeah, the runs were more suppressed before when models had more +PNA and -NAO. The +PNA has -0.3 correlation to precip, and -NAO has -0.4 correlation to precip, so you're right about that, but they both have +low pressure on the coast-correlation. I was hoping for a blizzard lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 holy crap 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: holy crap Extended period of late Winter on the way. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: holy crap There is an average +15 day lag late February to March, so that 10mb warming would favor -NAO conditions (about 2/3 times) March 5-15.. maybe longer if the graph says longer, but it just had +zonal wind in the long range a few days ago, now it's opposite, so we'll see. In mid-late March the downwell time on average +10 days. This 10mb warming is what usually happens in Strong El Nino/Strong -QBO Winter's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 @stormybe careful of that gfs storm. It’s alone. And frankly I’m not even rooting for it because it gets to that solution because it never develops the nao block and swings a NS wave over is which opens the door to that stj wave to come north. But it’s a weird convoluted evolution with high bust potential and if that general progression is correct that’s our only shot as it totally breaks down the pattern after. No thanks. Give me the all other guidance solution. Maybe it means no PD storm but it leads to a long extends window of opportunity not just a low probability one off. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 11 minutes ago, frd said: Extended period of late Winter on the way. I'm not really impressed right now.. we seem to be in a Hadley Cell expansion/mid-latitude High pressure regime that is holding through all of this tendency toward blocking that we are/have been heading into. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: Umm March 12th 1993 it was 62f before we got whacked! PHL picked up 13" of now and 4" of sleet with a rainbow at the end. It started snowing at 11 pm at 42f. What we need is dynamics. ‘93 was a triple phaser definitely had some dynamics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, stormy said: It's a SLAM DUNK with all 3 on board at 240. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, Ji said: EPS seems to like Post PD more than PD. Feb 21-22. The PSU storm If memory serves, the first PSU storm was Dec 26 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, Ji said: looks like it would of been suppressed Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Hmmm Feb 2010 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: holy crap please dont use that terminology unless its a snow map or a precip map...you really got me excited for a second until i saw the chart 1 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 7 minutes ago, frd said: Hmmm Feb 2010 Does anybody have a link to a quick explainer for how SSW impacts things at other levels of the atmosphere? My eyes glaze over at 10mb zonal winds, but if I had any idea how this impacted the charts I do kind of understand thanks to this board (250mb, 500mb, 850mb, surface), it would really help. Thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 10 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Does anybody have a link to a quick explainer for how SSW impacts things at other levels of the atmosphere? My eyes glaze over at 10mb zonal winds, but if I had any idea how this impacted the charts I do kind of understand thanks to this board (250mb, 500mb, 850mb, surface), it would really help. Thx! https://eos.org/features/how-sudden-stratospheric-warming-affects-the-whole-atmosphere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: @stormybe careful of that gfs storm. It’s alone. And frankly I’m not even rooting for it because it gets to that solution because it never develops the nao block and swings a NS wave over is which opens the door to that stj wave to come north. But it’s a weird convoluted evolution with high bust potential and if that general progression is correct that’s our only shot as it totally breaks down the pattern after. No thanks. Give me the all other guidance solution. Maybe it means no PD storm but it leads to a long extends window of opportunity not just a low probability one off. I did look some at the ops GFS progression around the possible PD event and beyond, and yeah, looks like it tries to just break down the flow soon after. Not totally sure why. I don't know how much of that would necessarily "have" to occur if the PD storm happens (if that makes sense), or if the ops GFS has just tended to flip the flow into a "meh" pattern in its extended forecast projections. Obviously, there's some connection which you mention, i.e., this leads to that which results in the GFS showing whatever pattern later on. I've noticed a few times that the ops GFS turns the 500-mb flow rather bland in the longer range, but that could be due to just being an ops at long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Well…let’s all hope the gfs isn’t on to something. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Omg the cold pattern that's not that cold. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Omg the cold pattern that's not that cold. Shhhh…..it’s the storm after the storm after the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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