Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, frd said:

When do you think is the first legit chance of a accumulating snow for the lowlands? 

 

The h5 pattern becomes generally favorable mid month, but it looks pretty dry until the 20th or so.

Flow streams coming together overhead in the upper atmosphere inhibit lift/promote sinking via convergence/confluence.

[Terpeast]

It appears we have 2-3 waves of interest:

The 13th, 19-21, and 22-23. The latter two may actually only be one storm, just disagreement among ensembles on timing. There will be a break of dry weather between the first two waves.

[Chris78]

Any concerns with the ridge showing up in the great lakes towards the end of the GEFS run?  Temps are pretty much normal by day 16th on GEFS which might be problematic as we get to the end of February  

[Heisy]

6z control (extension of OP) had some major H5 changes

It leaves the southern energy behind.




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[Heisy]

This is similar to what the older GFS runs we’re doing but we need better spacing or it won’t work


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[aldie 22]

Seems like the 6z gfs is a fair amount faster than the 0z was so it's still wet just too warm.

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z control (extension of OP) had some major H5 changes

It leaves the southern energy behind.




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Im stormtracker and I approve this message. 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Any concerns with the ridge showing up in the great lakes towards the end of the GEFS run?  Temps are pretty much normal by day 16th on GEFS which might be problematic as we get to the end of February  

That's a pretty flat ridge. Still have the low heights off Atlantic Canada, and check out the surface- pretty good look with HP in a good spot. That should be cold enough if there is a storm tracking underneath.

[brooklynwx99]

17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Any concerns with the ridge showing up in the great lakes towards the end of the GEFS run?  Temps are pretty much normal by day 16th on GEFS which might be problematic as we get to the end of February  

not really. the GEFS is just diffuse with everything and is weakest with blocking. not surprising given how the OP has been floundering around. it’s actually really active in the Gulf 

that trough is quickly retrograding as well, so heights along the WC quickly rise. there’s still a strong 50/50 and blocking over the top

[WinterWxLuvr]

27 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z control (extension of OP) had some major H5 changes

It leaves the southern energy behind.




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Would that not be a good thing? That more resembles the 0z gfs does it not?

[Wxdood]

2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I will keep asking the question?  Where is the Cold High up north for the cold air feed?  This is a common theme time and time again with few exceptions over the past 5 years or so. 

What answer are you looking for really?  This question is nearly unanswerable.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Would that not be a good thing? That more resembles the 0z gfs does it not?

I'd think it should be?  Wouldn't we want that NS trough to swing out just ahead to allow for some confluent flow and colder air to seep in, as the SS wave approaches?  I didn't see all the details, but I take it the 00Z GFS kind of tried to do that, not quite but still somehow offered a snowy solution.

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

It’s better than knowing

Nobody knows if they don't know anything or not. 

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I'd think it should be?  Wouldn't we want that NS trough to swing out just ahead to allow for some confluent flow and colder air to seep in, as the SS wave approaches?  I didn't see all the details, but I take it the 00Z GFS kind of tried to do that, not quite but still somehow offered a snowy solution.

There are a few ways it can work, but they all involve pretty intricate wave timing. I like what the 0z GFS did in phasing the 2 pieces of NS energy and then shifting it eastward into the 50-50 region, with the southern shortwave staying separate and lagging behind. Then the next piece of NS energy drops in and interacts with it as it approaches the coast, sharping the shortwave. That deepens the surface low in a good spot just off the coast to our south.

[Heisy]

Would that not be a good thing? That more resembles the 0z gfs does it not?

Yea but if the northern shortwave and the main one don’t have enough separation you’d end up with like a 00z cmc solution. Yea that trend is favorable, but only if the southern main shortwave backs up/slows down a bit there.


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[stormtracker]

Time for the GFS show.  Hold on to your loved ones.

[stormtracker]

We should know where it's heading around the 111-123 hr time frame

[North Balti Zen]

WW got his fingers hitting refresh to put up how there is no support for anything as fast as possible when the GEFS come out...

[anotherman]

https://x.com/henrymargusity/status/1754828730331975893?s=61

[Interstate]

To my untrained eye... The SW is looking more amped on panel H5 102

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, anotherman said:

https://x.com/henrymargusity/status/1754828730331975893?s=61

Oh crap henry just jinxed us lol

[stormtracker]

Can't really make a call yet.  s/w is a little more southwester vs 6z.  so far it's a draw.  We just can't know....until a few more panels

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Oh crap henry just jinxed us lol

I know right? Peddlin that snow crack. 

[stormtracker]

However there is just a tad more separation vs 6z...but not as good as 0z at that time

[SnowenOutThere]

30 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Time for the GFS show.  Hold on to your loved ones.

Can't believe you forgot about the ICON, the must trustworthy model

[stormtracker]

Actually, separation is noticeable, but again I wouldn't try to predict what's going to happen yet.

[Terpeast]

Hanging back a bit more at 120. Still not sure...

[stormtracker]

Precip field is flatter out front, but still a ways to go

[stormtracker]

By the way at 138 so far...gonna take a little bit to see the whites of the eyes

[Shad]

looks better to me at 132