CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 ^More in agreement with the signal for frozen to our north on the GEFS. With no semblance of HP up north and a marginal airmass, it all hinges on a significant piece of northern stream energy running out in front at the right time to flatten the flow/create confluence. Didn't happen this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 34 minutes ago, CAPE said: ^More in agreement with the signal for frozen to our north on the GEFS. With no semblance of HP up north and a marginal airmass, it all hinges on a significant piece of northern stream energy running out in front at the right time to flatten the flow/create confluence. Didn't happen this run. When do you think is the first legit chance of a accumulating snow for the lowlands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 hours ago, Ji said: I heard someone compare it to Jan 2022. How warm was it before that storm? Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk It was pouring rain here in the morning when that storm started. Ended up with around a foot of snow though. I was sure it was gonna just stay as rain it felt so warm out when I woke up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I will keep asking the question? Where is the Cold High up north for the cold air feed? This is a common theme time and time again with few exceptions over the past 5 years or so. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 WB 6Z GEFS keeps some hope alive for next week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 25 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I will keep asking the question? Where is the Cold High up north for the cold air feed? This is a common theme time and time again with few exceptions over the past 5 years or so. Mid month. As the pattern in the NA transitions towards a blocking regime, there is going to be a lot of vorticity flying around in the NS. As the block develops much of that energy will be consolidated/feed into the 50-50 low as the ridge over Greenland strengthens and builds westward. That sequence of events will promote surface HP over eastern Canada. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 this retrograding Scandi high on the EPS is textbook 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 SOI continues to absolutely tank. Largest single day contribution yet with a -41 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Chasing pattern changes has been a tiring process several years in a row. I am impressed with the persistence of some people doing so. I have grown weary and keep wondering if it is all an illusion. I think next week will be rain. I am not counting on anything more than cold liquid. I hope the changes that are supposed to happen after it are real and matter. It seems like a cold dry pattern to me. Thanks for the work people 2 2 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 In case anyone didn’t know and was afraid to ask - The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a standardized index based on the observed sea level pressure (SLP) differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. The SOI is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Niño and La Niñaepisodes. In general, smoothed time series of the SOI correspond very well with changes in ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific. The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. Prolonged periods of negative (positive) SOI values coincide with abnormally warm (cold) ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of El Niño (La Niña) episodes 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 So … we just don’t know? That about where we are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 So … we just don’t know? That about where we are?It’s better than knowing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 In case anyone didn’t know and was afraid to ask - The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a standardized index based on the observed sea level pressure (SLP) differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. The SOI is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Niño and La Niñaepisodes. In general, smoothed time series of the SOI correspond very well with changes in ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific. The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. Prolonged periods of negative (positive) SOI values coincide with abnormally warm (cold) ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of El Niño (La Niña) episodesJb said back in the day that negative soi ensuresTroughs keep moving in the sw….not getting stuck like gfs always shows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 With the longwave flow in major flux above us, and acknowledging that the last 2 times this happened (both directions) models all jumped to new conclusions inside of 10 days, it's worth keeping a completely open mind to the VD period. The ingredients are there but dicey (as always). But the path to victory is perfectly logical and has happened b4. @Jiyou mentioned 2015 type storms. Yea, I remember a few in more detail now. One in particular. Wave running into a cold press. Temps went from not great leading in to actually too much cold arctic air pressing down and it pacman'd the northern edge really bad. It surprised us a little. Those "press" type of setup do happen here. The VD period is a longshot but if it sets up it's not complicated 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The 6z GFS just ticked a hair north. We got time. Slight 500 miles south tick is all we need. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So … we just don’t know? That about where we are? Pretty much. Pretty sure 12z is gonna have another scenario on deck. For a change, we actually want a S/w out front to fuck up any possible phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, frd said: When do you think is the first legit chance of a accumulating snow for the lowlands? The h5 pattern becomes generally favorable mid month, but it looks pretty dry until the 20th or so. Flow streams coming together overhead in the upper atmosphere inhibit lift/promote sinking via convergence/confluence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 It appears we have 2-3 waves of interest: The 13th, 19-21, and 22-23. The latter two may actually only be one storm, just disagreement among ensembles on timing. There will be a break of dry weather between the first two waves. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Any concerns with the ridge showing up in the great lakes towards the end of the GEFS run? Temps are pretty much normal by day 16th on GEFS which might be problematic as we get to the end of February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6z control (extension of OP) had some major H5 changes It leaves the southern energy behind. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 This is similar to what the older GFS runs we’re doing but we need better spacing or it won’t work . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Seems like the 6z gfs is a fair amount faster than the 0z was so it's still wet just too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 11 minutes ago, Heisy said: 6z control (extension of OP) had some major H5 changes It leaves the southern energy behind. . Im stormtracker and I approve this message. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 14 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Any concerns with the ridge showing up in the great lakes towards the end of the GEFS run? Temps are pretty much normal by day 16th on GEFS which might be problematic as we get to the end of February That's a pretty flat ridge. Still have the low heights off Atlantic Canada, and check out the surface- pretty good look with HP in a good spot. That should be cold enough if there is a storm tracking underneath. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 17 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Any concerns with the ridge showing up in the great lakes towards the end of the GEFS run? Temps are pretty much normal by day 16th on GEFS which might be problematic as we get to the end of February not really. the GEFS is just diffuse with everything and is weakest with blocking. not surprising given how the OP has been floundering around. it’s actually really active in the Gulf that trough is quickly retrograding as well, so heights along the WC quickly rise. there’s still a strong 50/50 and blocking over the top 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 27 minutes ago, Heisy said: 6z control (extension of OP) had some major H5 changes It leaves the southern energy behind. . Would that not be a good thing? That more resembles the 0z gfs does it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: I will keep asking the question? Where is the Cold High up north for the cold air feed? This is a common theme time and time again with few exceptions over the past 5 years or so. What answer are you looking for really? This question is nearly unanswerable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Would that not be a good thing? That more resembles the 0z gfs does it not? I'd think it should be? Wouldn't we want that NS trough to swing out just ahead to allow for some confluent flow and colder air to seep in, as the SS wave approaches? I didn't see all the details, but I take it the 00Z GFS kind of tried to do that, not quite but still somehow offered a snowy solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, Ji said: It’s better than knowing Nobody knows if they don't know anything or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 12 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I'd think it should be? Wouldn't we want that NS trough to swing out just ahead to allow for some confluent flow and colder air to seep in, as the SS wave approaches? I didn't see all the details, but I take it the 00Z GFS kind of tried to do that, not quite but still somehow offered a snowy solution. There are a few ways it can work, but they all involve pretty intricate wave timing. I like what the 0z GFS did in phasing the 2 pieces of NS energy and then shifting it eastward into the 50-50 region, with the southern shortwave staying separate and lagging behind. Then the next piece of NS energy drops in and interacts with it as it approaches the coast, sharping the shortwave. That deepens the surface low in a good spot just off the coast to our south. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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