Bob Chill Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I like these setups. Shortwave isn't crazy strong and confluence is backing down into it. Everything has to smash into each other just right but there's wiggle room. Just need the confluence to set up right. It can happen before or during the approach. We have some good history with this stuff. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Snow map from SV...yes @NorthArlington101, I know other maps are gonna be like 75% less snowier probably. I'm just snowing the maps before you post WW map tht shows 2" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 This is probably better indicative with temps. But still noice 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I like these setups. Shortwave isn't crazy strong and confluence is backing down into it. Everything has to smash into each other just right but there's wiggle room. Just need the confluence to set up right. It can happen before or during the approach. We have some good history with this stuff. Reminds me of some late Feb 2015 stuff lolSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, Bob Chill said: I like these setups. Shortwave isn't crazy strong and confluence is backing down into it. Everything has to smash into each other just right but there's wiggle room. Just need the confluence to set up right. It can happen before or during the approach. We have some good history with this stuff. Well, it's not a trend, but this is the first time I've seen the GFS hold on to a solution for us to get snow two times in a row since I've been tracking H5 trends for the last 4 days. Really doesn't mean shit, but it is sort noteable. We might have been sleeping on Valentines day. Or it may just be another phantom. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, it's not a trend, but this is the first time I've seen the GFS hold on to a solution for us to get snow two times in a row since I've been tracking H5 trends for the last 4 days. Really doesn't mean shit, but it is sort noteable. We might have been sleeping on Valentines day. Or it may just be another phantom. You Rang 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: Sold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I like these setups. Shortwave isn't crazy strong and confluence is backing down into it. Everything has to smash into each other just right but there's wiggle room. Just need the confluence to set up right. It can happen before or during the approach. We have some good history with this stuff. Those are our best storms. When a wave tries to come at us from the SW but hits the brick wall of confluence from a block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Canadian went from a cutter at 12z to a low that tracks over Norfolk at 00z (still rain for the area though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Weather Will salivating at the chance to tell only 3 members support this Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2/23/87 redux but during the day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Well, it's not a trend, but this is the first time I've seen the GFS hold on to a solution for us to get snow two times in a row since I've been tracking H5 trends for the last 4 days. Really doesn't mean shit, but it is sort noteable. We might have been sleeping on Valentines day. Or it may just be another phantom.12z gfs lol. The north trend is real lolSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, Deck Pic said: 2/23/87 redux but during the day. As if we wouldn’t all stay up all night anyways 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Pacific looks awesome for this event. This is one that needs to bomb and become a 50/50 low to set us up for a really favorable period around PD. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Inbound clipper @ 252…cold smoke 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: As if we wouldn’t all stay up all night anyways Down here in heat island hell, I'd prefer a better airmass rather than Relying on 1-2"/hr rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Inbound clipper @ 252…cold smokeDid we make it to the other side? Have we finally seen the rainbow? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Yeah, that's the one. But even so, and I know you know this, but I hope nobody is vested in this...lol..180 hours. It is a mood lifter here tho. Come on Euro! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Reminds me of some late Feb 2015 stuff lol Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk The 80s has some good storms like this iirc. 2015 had weird blocking but we definitely got striped like a train track. I was thinking yesterday how how terrible the 14 day AO forecasts have been this winter. The big moves were missed badly beyond 10 days. Outside of normal bad range too. AO is tanking faster than predicted now. GFS could be right but it's messy with temps no matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Inbound clipper @ 252…cold smoke nice 2-4" event to kick off PD weekend. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The 80s has some good storms like this iirc. 2015 had weird blocking but we definitely got striped like a train track. I was thinking yesterday how how terrible the 14 day AO forecasts have been this winter. The big moves were missed badly beyond 10 days. Outside of normal bad range too. AO is tanking faster than predicted now. GFS could be right but it's messy with temps no matter. I never expect the first storm on day 1 of the pattern change to be anything but messy but by that date as you said ao is solidify negative Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The GFS delays the main wave which allows the N/S to race ahead and supply cold air. Cmc was a nod towards the GFS but it has terrible spacing so nothing comes of it. Euro obviously phased the two waves which would be worst case. Hopefully see the euro go towards the GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Ukie is in the euro phasing camp, 18z euro control phases the waves even more than 12z so that wasn’t good. We’ll see, need more support before it can be taken serious . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I forgot what surface and snow maps look like due to 500mb maps being posted for weeks now. Digital blue time boys. Plenty of time to trend better being 200 hours out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Ukie is in the euro phasing camp, 18z euro control phases the waves even more than 12z so that wasn’t good. We’ll see, need more support before it can be taken serious . This looks better than the 12z Euro. Even the ensembles were flatter than the op runs. Cmc came in way flatter than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I'll take this setup right now. Nice strong High pressure and moisture going up into the Midwest https://ibb.co/Tt9FYnp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I would love for this to phase. https://ibb.co/PMjcvP6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now