Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[Bob Chill]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 

This looks beautiful but it’s also suppressive right there. We might need that beast of a block to retro and weaken some. That’s why Feb 22-25 has been and continues to be the best window. Nothing has changed at all. We can snow from one of the waves before. But early on Feb 12-16 temps could be an issue during the transition week. Then from Feb 17-22 suppression could be an issue.  Our best chance at a big storm is as the first wave (I think we get multiple pulses and chances with blocking now until late March) fades some and allows one of the pacific waves to amplify. 

I'm leaning towards the front half of March to be the most active. Ens guidance did an incredible job seeing the blocking pattern. One thing I never liked seeing is the corresponding precip anomaly panels. Second half of Feb has looked pretty dry with unanimous agreement.

Now that it's getting closer it's looking more likely. We can still get a big storm as the pattern itself is ripe but idk. BN precip anomaly in the TN valley across all weekly/monthly guidance is bugging me. Pretty strong clue of suppressed storm track and/or quiet northern stream. That narrows our path to true Miller A's that have to turn the corner. NW shield would be tight and track more on the vertical side. I can't think of many pure Miller As without a primary in the tn vly. Jan 2000? Lol

 

Eta: I graphed a bunch of nao data leading into our bigger storms. This was back in like 2012 so there is new data but the basic premise was obvious. We don't get big snow with a real -NAO descending into anomalous territory. We generally dont even get moderate snow with a tanked-NAO. There are a few but vast majority are on the relax. Most know this. This is a massive blocking event. That's not our forte on the front side. 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

6z GEFS

For 2 weeks out this is an impressive surface plot, and pretty indicative of what we want to see for an impending east coast winter storm.

 

PNA is rising as the trough near the WC retros a bit, too. classic look here

[bigtenfan]

8 hours ago, Ji said:

lol

Perfect for Phila Eagles fans that soon after the  Super Bowl. Kind of gives a new meaning to the term  Philly Special.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm leaning towards the front half of March to be the most active. Ens guidance did an incredible job seeing the blocking pattern. One thing I never liked seeing is the corresponding precip anomaly panels. Second half of Feb has looked pretty dry with unanimous agreement.

Now that it's getting closer it's looking more likely. We can still get a big storm as the pattern itself is ripe but idk. BN precip anomaly in the TN valley across all weekly/monthly guidance is bugging me. Pretty strong clue of suppressed storm track and/or quiet northern stream. That narrows our path to true Miller A's that have to turn the corner. NW shield would be tight and track more on the vertical side. I can't think of many pure Miller As without a primary in the tn vly. Jan 2000? Lol

This is the mean precip for the period I’m targeting the last week of Feb. 22-29. I like this look. 
 

You’re not wrong about the first week of March though, this looks even better lol. 

[snowfan]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm leaning towards the front half of March to be the most active. Ens guidance did an incredible job seeing the blocking pattern. One thing I never liked seeing is the corresponding precip anomaly panels. Second half of Feb has looked pretty dry with unanimous agreement.

Now that it's getting closer it's looking more likely. We can still get a big storm as the pattern itself is ripe but idk. BN precip anomaly in the TN valley across all weekly/monthly guidance is bugging me. Pretty strong clue of suppressed storm track and/or quiet northern stream. That narrows our path to true Miller A's that have to turn the corner. NW shield would be tight and track more on the vertical side. I can't think of many pure Miller As without a primary in the tn vly. Jan 2000? Lol

 

Eta: I graphed a bunch of nao data leading into our bigger storms. This was back in like 2012 so there is new data but the basic premise was obvious. We don't get big snow with a real -NAO descending into anomalous territory. We generally dont even get moderate snow with a tanked-NAO. There are a few but vast majority are on the relax. Most know this. This is a massive blocking event. That's not our forte on the front side. 

And BN precip would be consistent with CPCs outlook for both 8-14 days and 3-4 weeks out. 

[frd]

39 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

SOI continues to tank. Today’s -36 is the largest single day contribution yet.

Isn't there some type of formula as to peak negative SOI and it's effect in the East via Pac interaction and moisture delivery ?

[Terpeast]

I’m not all that worried about BN precip, because if we’re on the north side and when its cold, we can still get a decent snowfall out of it without any mixing issues. HECS? Maybe not, but something that gets us to climo before we get another shot end of feb-early march. 

Still can have a wave miss us to the south, and if it does, it is what it is. There will be multiple shots. 

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill I think this first block peaks around Feb 20. How long after becomes our window depends on how it fades and the configuration. The strong and in the process of coupling again Nino and currently tanking soi lead me to believe things line up sooner rather than later. That’s why I think a few days after the Feb 20 peak could offer a chance. I think we will bet a continuous stream of strong pacific waves coming across. We just need the flow to relax enough to not squash one of them. IMO this pattern (because of the pacific look) is going to be a ticking time bomb. Yea we might see one two even three waves get squashed. But sooner or later the flow will relax just enough.  We just need one flush hit. 

[frd]

This was just updated a few minutes ago, and wow ! 

Deeper, longer, we are setting up for an extended period of winter weather. 

More consolidation for a -3 SD AO then yesterday. 

Some member - 6 SD.  

 

  

[Maestrobjwa]

54 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’m not all that worried about BN precip, because if we’re on the north side and when its cold, we can still get a decent snowfall out of it without any mixing issues. HECS? Maybe not, but something that gets us to climo before we get another shot end of feb-early march. 

Still can have a wave miss us to the south, and if it does, it is what it is. There will be multiple shots. 

To climo? While I guess that would be something at least...I don't see how we get to the 30 inch forecasts of some playing that game. That's gonna require one of those shots to be a MECS. No way the cities get above climo without that (unless we get like 3 moderate events).

Would've felt more comfortable if this changed happened 1-2 weeks earlier, but you never know. While I still feel like we're kinda flirting with the last part of our usual window...thankfully it's still early...so we'll just have to patient until we get closer.

[CAPE]

With the advertised upper air pattern, this period could feature a shot of legit Arctic air, possibly coming in behind a winter storm. Maybe some (late) deep winter with snow otg.

[fujiwara79]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

No way the cities get above climo without that (unless we get like 3 moderate events)

Aren't the cities already at 50% of their climo?  One MECS will easily take them over climo.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

To climo? While I guess that would be something at least...I don't see how we get to the 30 inch forecasts of some playing that game. That's gonna require one of those shots to be a MECS. No way the cities get above climo without that (unless we get like 3 moderate events).

Would've felt more comfortable if this changed happened 1-2 weeks earlier, but you never know. While I still feel like we're kinda flirting with the last part of our usual window...thankfully it's still early...so we'll just have to patient until we get closer.

We 'get there' with one or 2 big storms. Certainly possible over the next month.

Most places in the lowlands already have 8-12" on the board.

[DarkSharkWX]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

To climo? While I guess that would be something at least...I don't see how we get to the 30 inch forecasts of some playing that game. That's gonna require one of those shots to be a MECS. No way the cities get above climo without that (unless we get like 3 moderate events).

Would've felt more comfortable if this changed happened 1-2 weeks earlier, but you never know. While I still feel like we're kinda flirting with the last part of our usual window...thankfully it's still early...so we'll just have to patient until we get closer.

dca is 5.9" from climo iirc, and i'm about 8-10" from climo here

[Bob Chill]

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill I think this first block peaks around Feb 20. How long after becomes our window depends on how it fades and the configuration. The strong and in the process of coupling again Nino and currently tanking soi lead me to believe things line up sooner rather than later. That’s why I think a few days after the Feb 20 peak could offer a chance. I think we will bet a continuous stream of strong pacific waves coming across. We just need the flow to relax enough to not squash one of them. IMO this pattern (because of the pacific look) is going to be a ticking time bomb. Yea we might see one two even three waves get squashed. But sooner or later the flow will relax just enough.  We just need one flush hit. 

I'm 100% stoked on the AO/NAO. Mid Jan was a gut punch with the hit and run. That was unusual. So much so I don't remember seeing a rapid flip from dep neg to deep positive. Oscillations are normal/expected. That wasn't an oscillation. It was a bowling ball on a trampoline. 

Considering length of lead and laser focus throughout, this current potential blocking event looks much more classic and stable. If that's the case, we can probably expect a decent -AO/NAO on the means for 45 days. Maybe longer but 45 gets us thru March. Maybe coincidence (again) but met winter sure seems to have moved forward 2 weeks last 8 years or so. Maybe this winter is progressing as previous just not following the calendar. Beats me but Mar 24 will likely be another memorable and recent March. 

How long was the big block in place b4 the first Feb storm in 2010? We were cold and dry for a while before the late Jan storm. I remember the big relax after Dec 19th but when it came back it never left until late Feb. 

[DarkSharkWX]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

With the advertised upper air pattern, this period could feature a shot of legit Arctic air, possibly coming in behind a winter storm. Maybe some (late) deep winter with snow otg.

i think there probably will be at least one big cold shot once the block does retrograde, which wont be picked up by guidance at this lead time

[Ji]

dca is 5.9" from climo iirc, and i'm about 8-10" from climo here

If we just get to climo..winter is a disaster

[HighStakes]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

With the advertised upper air pattern, this period could feature a shot of legit Arctic air, possibly coming in behind a winter storm. Maybe some (late) deep winter with snow otg.

I've been thinking the same thing. Just getting caught up on everything as I'm finally on my feet again after a rough bout with the flu. I don't see how we avoid a serious shot or 2 of real arctic air. Teleconnections look amazing and are all lining up. This period coming up looks to be centered about 15 days later than 2010 and about 15-20 days earlier than 2018. Snow amounts always a wildcard but a sustained 3-4 week run of solid winter looking likely.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

How long was the big block in place b4 the first Feb storm in 2010? We were cold and dry for a while before the late Jan storm. I remember the big relax after Dec 19th but when it came back it never left until late Feb. 

Good to see you posting as always, Bob!

Anyhow to your question I'll go by what I remember from 2009-2010.  There was of course the big storm on Dec. 18-19, a couple of weeks after our "Dec. 5 snow" (that seemed to be a thing).  We then got washed out the rest of the month more or less.  January 2010 I recall starting off cold with some clipper-type system, before we had a thaw for much of the month (but not a torch per se).  I don't know when exactly that big round of blocking came back, but in the week or so leading up to the two February HECS events, we did have the cold blast and the 6" cold powder on Jan. 30 (that storm inched north after looking like nothing here)...then an event on Groundhog Day (5" in my yard), but by then everyone was focused on the big one that occurred a few days later.  So I don't know how dry it was specifically (though I have some sense Jan. 2010 was dryish overall??); we did kind of luck out with Jan. 30, that could just as easily have been "cold and dry" (and it looked like it for awhile).  But at least it shows how we could still score a neat event even in something that nominally looked suppressed.

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We 'get there' with one or 2 big storms. Certainly possible over the next month.

Most places in the lowlands already have 8-12" on the board.

Oh yeah I know we're like 5-6 from climo. It's just...I'm struggling to get past the fact that historically for the lowlands, MECS storms (those are 12-18", correct?) have never happened that late in Feb, and only maybe once or twice in March! I mean there must be a reason for that....or...maybe this year will be an anomaly since the block is setting up later than it usual. Are there any Niños on record where a MECS happened this late?

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh yeah I know we're like 5-6 from climo. It's just...I'm struggling to get past the fact that historically for the lowlands, MECS storms (those are 12-18", correct?) have never happened that late in Feb, and only maybe once or twice in March! I mean there must be a reason for that....or...maybe this year will be an anomaly since the block is setting up later than it usual. Are there any Niños on record where it happened this late?

What is so magic about breaking 30? Who cares about predictions- just someone's opinion. Lets say the lowlands get an 8" event, a 10" event, and maybe another 3 with a minor or mixed event over the next 4-5 weeks. Would that meet your "bar" for a good winter?

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh yeah I know we're like 5-6 from climo. It's just...I'm struggling to get past the fact that historically for the lowlands, MECS storms (those are 12-18", correct?) have never happened that late in Feb, and only maybe once or twice in March! I mean there must be a reason for that....or...maybe this year will be an anomaly since the block is setting up later than it usual. Are there any Niños on record where a MECS happened this late?

Put this way. If it can snow significantly in March like 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2022 (and multiple years pre-2014 notwithstanding), then it almost certainly snow big enough to surpass climo by a big margin in late Feb through the first week of March. 

[stormy]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

If we just get to climo..winter is a disaster

43% of Nino winters since 1980  have given me below normal snowfall.

I would be happy to reach climo considering that stat..

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What is so magic about breaking 30? Who cares about predictions- just someone's opinion. Lets say the lowlands get an 8" event, a 10" event, and maybe another 3 with a minor or mixed event over the next 4-5 weeks. Would that meet your "bar" for a good winter?

Given what's coming up next year, we need that 30" or close. 2014-2016 all had at least 30, 57-58 & 77-78 & 78-79 went over that too. Now if it's spread out like you described, I think I'd take that. Ngl though--I want a mecs+ because it's been 8 years, and I know we're not gonna have much of a shot at one the next 1-2 years at least...so may as well hunt the big dog this year! Like psu said this is our best chance in 8 years...to not get a big storm out of it would be a bit disappointing..but I'd still enjoy it if it were more spread out.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What is so magic about breaking 30? Who cares about predictions- just someone's opinion. Lets say the lowlands get an 8" event, a 10" event, and maybe another 3 with a minor or mixed event over the next 4-5 weeks. Would that meet your "bar" for a good winter?

 

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Put this way. If it can snow significantly in March like 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2022 (and multiple years pre-2014 notwithstanding), then it almost certainly snow big enough to surpass climo by a big margin in late Feb through the first week of March. 

Exactly these points.  I'll add that there's nothing "significant" about apparently not getting a MECS/HECS the last week or so of February.  Any more than it was "significant" that we previously didn't have one the 3rd week of January, and there was similar talk at that time in 2016 I recall.  We're talking a small sample of "big storms" here anyhow, and a discrete one week period.  Not like it can't snow at that time.  Trying to draw inference about "that week" is a bit much, it's not some voodoo magic (Jobu!!) that keeps us from such an event at that particular time.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Given what's coming up next year, we need that 30" or close. 2014-2016 all had at least 30, 57-58 & 77-78 & 78-79 went over that too. Now if it's spread out like you described, I think I'd take that. Ngl though--I want a mecs+ because it's been 8 years, and I know we're not gonna have much of a shot at one the next 1-2 years at least...so may as well hunt the big dog this year! Like psu said this is our best chance in 8 years...to not get a big storm out of it would be a bit disappointing..but I'd still enjoy it if it were more spread out.

My advice to you is don't set yourself up for disappointment. 'Epic' patterns in a Nino don't always result in prolific snow amounts.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Given what's coming up next year, we need that 30" or close. 2014-2016 all had at least 30, 57-58 & 77-78 & 78-79 went over that too. Now if it's spread out like you described, I think I'd take that. Ngl though--I want a mecs+ because it's been 8 years, and I know we're not gonna have much of a shot at one the next 1-2 years at least...so may as well hunt the big dog this year! Like psu said this is our best chance in 8 years...to not get a big storm out of it would be a bit disappointing..but I'd still enjoy it if it were more spread out.

Let's not worry about next winter or cancel it just yet.  Sure, maybe it will be a sh*t winter...but what happens if we have one week in, say, January and score a lucky 12"+ event?  I wouldn't complain so much, even if the rest of the season sucks.  We rely on a lot of luck in these parts and have gotten such events in crappy seasons before.

ETA:  I don't remember a huge amount of winter 2005-06, other than it sucked for the most part.  But mid-February 2006 we got that one great event, it wasn't as big down this way (much bigger up toward NJ, etc.), but it was still great.  It was warm before that and like 70 degrees a few days after.  We got one good period, that's all it took, to get at least something.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Let's not worry about next winter or cancel it just yet.  Sure, maybe it will be a sh*t winter...but what happens if we have one week in, say, January and score a lucky 12"+ event?  I wouldn't complain so much, even if the rest of the season sucks.  We rely on a lot of luck in these parts and have gotten such events in crappy seasons before.

ETA:  I don't remember a huge amount of winter 2005-06, other than it sucked for the most part.  But mid-February 2006 we got that one great event, it wasn't as big down this way (much bigger up toward NJ, etc.), but it was still great.  It was warm before that and like 70 degrees a few days after.  We got one good period, that's all it took, to get at least something.

What's probably coming next winter is a Nina. There are variations, just like there are with Ninos. They don't all suck for snow, but a lot of folks in the MA seem to believe that is the case.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

My advice to you is don't set yourself up for disappointment. 'Epic' patterns in a Nino don't always result in prolific snow amounts.

Oh yes I know. Nothing in weather is guaranteed--one thing I've learned the hard way. Much chaos in weather outcomes! I don't think it's so much expecting something to definitely happen; more like seeing the best shot--and I'd argue the only legit one--we've had in 8 years and just reallllly hoping we don't miss, given how few chances we've had.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

What's probably coming next winter is a Nina. There are variations, just like there are with Ninos. They don't all suck for snow, but a lot of folks in the MA seem to believe that is the case.

It’s not just Nina, but the QBO will likely go back positive, and we might have maxed out on solar and start the descending cycle then. Purely based on these variables, I’m not optimistic except for a winter trip out to Whistler. Sure we can get lucky with one storm like Jan 2022. 

But that’s all a year way. Back to your regularly scheduled pattern change tracking.