Terpeast Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I don’t know if you guys realize this but we just had a close miss. This could have been us if the omega block was displaced 500 miles west. (It was that weird clipper that dived from the NW and it was DOA when it got here, but it went nuclear as soon as it went neg tilt before Nova) At least we have another shot later this month 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 minutes ago, frd said: I was not aware how dramatic the North America snow cover has declined. Pretty remarkable. Interesting post by @bluewave below. < The record low snow cover may be part of the reason the surface temperatures days 11-15 will be significantly warmer than the 850mb temperatures. > the snowcover should recover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, frd said: Good post Those numbers are probably a lot higher in a Nino. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: the snowcover should recover We are not far away from the time of year when retaining snow cover becomes a real challenge outside of the mountain west and interior New England. Doesn’t mean it can’t snow of course, but you need that early season snowfall And sustained cold to have big impact on snow cover outside the mountains. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Those numbers are probably a lot higher in a Nino. Do you still have confidence this favorable pattern develops mid month and beyond? I think we could be setting up for a monster a la ‘83 but concerned about MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 31 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: the snowcover should recover Well, it had recovered nicely but then it tanked again. Perhaps it was considerably thinner than normal. Zooming out from the eastern CONUS, the big story of the winter has been the absolute obliteration of the heartland's snow/cold by the December torch. It was mild here but it was quite muted compared to what they had. They did have a nice cold outbreak in January along with most of the country, but by then the damage had been done. As the years go by it becomes more and more apparent that the events of the "pre-winter" (late November) and the first third of winter can have significant impacts on the evolution of the rest of the winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Those numbers are probably a lot higher in a Nino. Interesting to note that the Greenland Ridge is the only game in town if you want a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Winter in 4 weeks https://www.instagram.com/reel/C1um-I7xhao/?igsh=MW96bjE1d29udmpxYg== 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Winter in 4 weekshttps://www.instagram.com/reel/C1um-I7xhao/?igsh=MW96bjE1d29udmpxYg== I don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 here’s a good example of why the GEFS having a temporary “Pacific onslaught” isn’t really bad at all. the same thing happened in 2016. there was a surge eastward of the aleutian trough, leading to even some ridging into the C US and Great Lakes. a wave slipped underneath, the trough retrogrades, leading to a transient +PNA and boom 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, frd said: I was not aware how dramatic the North America snow cover has declined. Pretty remarkable. Interesting post by @bluewave below. < The record low snow cover may be part of the reason the surface temperatures days 11-15 will be significantly warmer than the 850mb temperatures. > Surface temps only matter during precipitation events. I only look at 850mb temp anomalies at range, since those tell us where the anomalously warm and cold airmasses are or are going. Saying that surface temps are warmer than 850 temps as far as anomalies go is a bit misleading, though. This would hold true if it’s a bright sunny cloudless day, especially with no snowcover, when you could have cold 850mb temps but with dry adiabatic mixing you’ll probably reach average or even slightly above at the surface. But if it’s dry and sunny, who cares. Take the same 850mb temps during a precipitation event, you’re almost certainly getting snow. That’s when we’d check the sfc temps, or better, the soundings. The poster who said that may be a good researcher, but he conveniently left all of the above out. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 hours ago, cbmclean said: Interesting to note that the Greenland Ridge is the only game in town if you want a HECS. Not if you think about what it takes to get a hecs. To get 20” we need a lot of WAA. We’re too far SW to get that much from a coastal CCB like NYC and Bos can sometimes. Coastal simply aren’t developed and intense enough by our latitude to get those kinds of totally purely from the CCB like further north. I’m not saying it’s impossible but it’s highly unlikely. To get hecs totals here we need WAA precip in advance of the coastal. Ideally we even want the wave to try to cut to our west and throw a crap ton of gulf moisture at us. But the problem is we need it not to cut. We need it to start west so that we get gulf moisture fetch thrown at us but we need the wave to hit a brick wall and be forced to transfer under us. The only mechanism to do that is a coupled nao block with 50/50 low. Sometimes the wave might only have an inverted trough attached to an anchor NS upper feature like 1996. But we need a sw flow of gulf moisture ahead of the eventual coastal and the only way out thermals can survive that is with a stout block. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, Jersey Andrew said: Do you still have confidence this favorable pattern develops mid month and beyond? I think we could be setting up for a monster a la ‘83 but concerned about MJO. I am 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Gfs was super close to a dump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Gfs was super close to a dump discrete, trackable event by the end of the weekend? by god, @WxUSAF pulled off his call. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Yeah...closer than it's ever been 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 For those keeping track at home 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 discrete, trackable event by the end of the weekend? by god, [mention=51]WxUSAF[/mention] pulled off his call. It’s got to be strong but south for it to work in the marginal cold. No breathing room but 2nd run in a row there shortwave tracked just below us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 For those keeping track at home Geez that is close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 That's agonizing. I would rather it be a total miss or rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 That's agonizing. I would rather it be a total miss or rain.You got any old friends left in hgr lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 You got any old friends left in hgr lol?If @psuhoffman doesn’t agree to host all of us for the night, what is this board even for? 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 It’s got to be strong but south for it to work in the marginal cold. No breathing room but 2nd run in a row there shortwave tracked just below us It’s the year of the last minute southern trend. All we need to do is create 3 threads before the storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Pd 7 incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 It’s the year of the last minute southern trend. All we need to do is create 3 threads before the storm I’m going to try to be positive the next 6 weeks despite the rough start to the pattern change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: If @psuhoffman doesn’t agree to host all of us for the night, what is this board even for? I’ve offered to host chasers before 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, Ji said: I’m going to try to be positive the next 6 weeks despite the rough start to the pattern change I will support you in this endeavor (there's gonna have to be some kind of penalty if you fall of the wagon though.t.like something you genuinely hate doing, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I can’t stand southerners. They don’t deserve snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I can’t stand southerners. They don’t deserve snow lol those morons can’t snow with a 1060 high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Yea we’re getting a hecs before winter is over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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