Jebman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 hours ago, benjammin said: Road trip to Mammoth Lakes? Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk We have a truly Olympic winnah. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge The Ski Patrol will be TRULY, TRULY punked out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Take one week at a time to keep expectations in check. No snow this week. VD storm on life support week 2. My focus is now on President's week. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Sorry Will. That reply was gahooee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Take one week at a time to keep expectations in check. No snow this week. VD storm on life support week 2. My focus is now on President's week.This is why we lose people. We’re looking 3 weeks ahead (fine… 2.5) and have been tracking epic patterns for weeks. I think it’s actually a credit to modeling that I’m starting to go insane. We’ve seen this look for so long you’d swear up and down it’s been 15 days away for a month. And it’s still 15 days away. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 This time, next week we're going start seeing some interesting and trackable stuff showing up. Get your rest and relaxation this week, chill...watch the SB then prepare yourselves. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: This is why we lose people. We’re looking 3 weeks ahead (fine… 2.5) and have been tracking epic patterns for weeks. I think it’s actually a credit to modeling that I’m starting to go insane. We’ve seen this look for so long you’d swear up and down it’s been 15 days away for a month. And it’s still 15 days away. Yeah, that's the thing. We know it's coming, we're just impatient. Personally, I don't want to see any big storm beyond 200 hours, so I don't mind not seeing anything right now. I get the excitement of seeing it tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, that's the thing. We know it's coming, we're just impatient. Personally, I don't want to see any big storm beyond 200 hours, so I don't mind not seeing anything right now. I get the excitement of seeing it tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Well, I'm in this Saturday night, got a beer and some guilty pleasure salt bombs known Ramen Cup of Noodles. Might as well analyze the GFS for fun. Maybe we'll get the fantasy storm this run. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 The pattern will change and most normal people will not even notice it unless there is alot of snow. 35-40 is not going to impress anyone and people will call it a bust Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: This is why we lose people. We’re looking 3 weeks ahead (fine… 2.5) and have been tracking epic patterns for weeks. I think it’s actually a credit to modeling that I’m starting to go insane. We’ve seen this look for so long you’d swear up and down it’s been 15 days away for a month. And it’s still 15 days away. The sooner you realize models are clueless beyond a few days the less you'll pay attention to that nonsense and maintain your sanity.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 A storm the 13th would give us something good to track during the super bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 A storm the 13th would give us something good to track during the super bowl. Get that storm 57 miles more south Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Strong moisture signal for pd3Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Eps 850 Feb 13Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 7 hours ago, Ji said: The pattern will change and most normal people will not even notice it unless there is alot of snow. 35-40 is not going to impress anyone and people will call it a bust Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk This is why I'm not engaged. I don't doubt a good snow pattern showing up (I'm as certain as anyone) but without snow it will feel like average boring late winter. Chilly in the wind, warm in the sun, daylight dinners and frosty mornings. If we were tracking an arctic blast like 2015, I'd be a laser. Once I see something that has higher odds than another longshot letdown, I'll be locked and loaded. Maybe this month, maybe March, or maybe next winter lol 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 8 hours ago, stormtracker said: This time, next week we're going start seeing some interesting and trackable stuff showing up. Get your rest and relaxation this week, chill...watch the SB then prepare yourselves. Head back to Mexico.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 You guys are gonna get demolished. I can feel it in my bones. It may happen several times, too. You are DUE. It's coming. Do NOT forget the Scraff Beer Fridge Index. Bolster it by stockin up on 7700 IPAs. Get five fridges and stock up but good. Let's bring these snowstorms home and put the Reaper out of business for good. We've got this! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 WB 6Z GEFS, we can only go up from here.... 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 9 hours ago, Ji said: The pattern will change and most normal people will not even notice it unless there is alot of snow. 35-40 is not going to impress anyone and people will call it a bust Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk We've only had 1 week of winter this year. It's been a real snoozefest and these big predictions of above average snow are in real danger. 3 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Positive news for WB 6Z GEFS, cold air gets reestablished President's weekend. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We've only had 1 week of winter this year. It's been a real snoozefest and these big predictions of above average snow are in real danger. Some of these comments (especially by those who should know better) are getting to be a real snooze-fest in this thread. Put that crap in Banter or the Panic Room. Sure, the "big snow" forecasts might not materialize in reality but can't we just let things evolve and see where things go? Rather than go "OMG, if we don't get X number of inches this year everything is doomed for years!" Even if we get a couple of solid storms and/or a HECS-level event. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 WB 6Z EURO, 2 weeks is an eternity in tracking storms...remember this one from 10 plus days ago? Patience is needed. Remember our 2 moderate storms in January popped in the short range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough At this point I’m wondering if the Feb 19-20 system is just the appetizer for the next one. We might get something from it, or at least reinforce the cold air from that point on 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: We've only had 1 week of winter this year. It's been a real snoozefest and these big predictions of above average snow are in real danger. Yep. I have 7.5" for the winter. A good chance I don't even make double-digits. At least last year featured a notable Christmas cold snap. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: We've only had 1 week of winter this year. It's been a real snoozefest and these big predictions of above average snow are in real danger. that week in january was objectively the best looking at the AWSSI values at the three airports from the past 7 years and even for all time it ranked within the top 1-2% of weeks winter-wise if people are complaining about a week like that then maybe u shld move somewhere else cuz ur expectations are way too high 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: that week in january was objectively the best looking at the AWSSI values at the three airports from the past 7 years and even for all time it ranked within the top 1-2% of weeks winter-wise if people are complaining about a week like that then maybe u shld move somewhere else cuz ur expectations are way too high He's not complaining about the week. He's complaining that it's the only week. What about the other 8 weeks of this winter, how do they rank? 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, Jebman said: You guys are gonna get demolished. I can feel it in my bones. It may happen several times, too. You are DUE. It's coming. Do NOT forget the Scraff Beer Fridge Index. Bolster it by stockin up on 7700 IPAs. Get five fridges and stock up but good. Let's bring these snowstorms home and put the Reaper out of business for good. We've got this! What I love about Jeb’s consistent positivity is it’s JUST AS REAL and appropriate as anyone consistently writing “I’m not sure” (anyone can say that lol) or “this is gonna bust!!”. Keep it up Jeb -thank God you’re not a DEB!! Hahahaha!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Latest MJO. I am hopeful that as we approach President Day timeframe this continues to amp into 8 heading into 1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Latest MJO. I am hopeful that as we approach President Day timeframe this continues to amp into 8 heading into 1. Yeah, that's a stronger MJO 8 signal. Normally, I want it weaker and inside COD. But in this case, we don't want it to collapse into COD and then reemerge into the warm phases. So for this year, we want it to stay stronger as we circle through the cold phases. It may not contribute to giving us deep arctic air, but we don't need it to get that cold even in late February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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