Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 Crazy if we get rain with this H5 https://ibb.co/YR9gdSH I guess they will back off of it on future runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wouldn’t say that. Mean precip week 3 week 4 week 5 Looks not dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 no ensemble member in the magic window should be giving us rain. Not one Is that our HECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Is that our HECS? HECF Historical East Coast Fail 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Is that our HECS? Do you really believe that?? Ji is being Ji............................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Is that our HECS? Hard to find one that is snow. Next winter will rock the casbah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: EPS weeklies are dry with the progression with that H5 look Brooklynn posted?? I was referring to the EPS(not the weeklies) wrt the period after mid month through the end of the run. Doesn't have much of anything beyond the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Is that our HECS? Yes.. something is going to need to change between H5 and the surface though. -EPO is an underrated cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 Just now, BristowWx said: Hard to find one that is snow. Next winter will rock the casbah There is a Panic Room thread, folks... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: There is a Panic Room thread, folks... Don’t be throwing around that F word so loosely. This is a family site. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 What keeps me awake at night???? February - March 1 will witness several threats but southward suppression will disappoint many. I fear the NS will be too strong. I hope I'm wrong but I must be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 10 minutes ago, stormy said: What keeps me awake at night???? February - March 1 will witness several threats but southward suppression will disappoint many. I fear the NS will be too strong. I hope I'm wrong but I must be honest. Panic Room... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 What keeps me awake at night???? February - March 1 will witness several threats but southward suppression will disappoint many. I fear the NS will be too strong. I hope I'm wrong but I must be honest.We need a Nino man. Much less ns dominant type winters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I wouldn’t say that. Mean precip week 3 week 4 week 5 Here are the corresponding pattern looks on the Euro Weeklies for weeks 3, 4, & 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 4 minutes ago, Ji said: We need a Nino man. Much less ns dominant type winters There is a prominent southward displaced jet in a Nino that is absent in a Nina, but with an amped PNA/EPO ridge and split flow there certainly can be a 'busy' NS at times. Once the pattern matures as the HL block develops, the NS energy will be focused more in the 50-50 region. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 the euro weeklies control run is still weenie with regionwide 18"+ lmao i hate the controls runs of the weeklies especially, but it's just surprising to me how for the last 6 runs or so it just hasn't given up on the idea of a MECS+ storm with this pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 the euro weeklies control run is still weenie with regionwide 18"+ lmao i hate the controls runs of the weeklies especially, but it's just surprising to me how for the last 6 runs or so it just hasn't given up on the idea of a MECS+ storm with this patternIt looked like the gfs was about to light us up at 384 and then the show ended 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 3 minutes ago, Ji said: It looked like the gfs was about to light us up at 384 and then the show ended yeah it looked like it was about to drop a nice one and maybe even a bigger one if u extrapolate far enough to where that aleutian low ejects a vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 1 hour ago, CAPE said: I was referring to the EPS(not the weeklies) wrt the period after mid month through the end of the run. Doesn't have much of anything beyond the 12th. Yea we might have to wait for the blocking to start to retro and relax some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 I don’t think it’s a coincidence both these models (control, GFs) have absolutely massive blocks at the end of there runs. Looks, it’s possible we get shutout a few days into the pattern change, but I’ll roll the dice with a massive AO block end of Feb into March. Just have to hopefully avoid -PNA and ridge link up. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 the euro weeklies control run is still weenie with regionwide 18"+ lmao i hate the controls runs of the weeklies especially, but it's just surprising to me how for the last 6 runs or so it just hasn't given up on the idea of a MECS+ storm with this patternThe control has the one MECS blow through on Mar. 14. I won’t make it that long 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 3, 2024 Share Posted February 3, 2024 Road trip to Mammoth Lakes? Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 49 minutes ago, benjammin said: Road trip to Mammoth Lakes? Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk Snow showers. Meh 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: The control has the one MECS blow through on Mar. 14. I won’t make it that long Well, quite honestly by March 14th pretty much we are done so you better have something to show by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 Like I said, the meltdowns are gonna be epic. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 WB latest extended GEFS for President's week. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 12 minutes ago, IronTy said: Like I said, the meltdowns are gonna be epic. I'm here for it. I got a week with 5+ inches on the ground and highs below 33 inside the beltway. Felt like 1878. Anything else is gravy. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 Take one week at a time to keep expectations in check. No snow this week. VD storm on life support week 2. My focus is now on President's week. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 For the PD potential: Developing rex block. NS energy now directed into the low pressure region of the block- the 50-50 low. Indication of a significant shortwave in the southern stream. Primary question is how much gain in latitude the deep moisture can make underneath the block. Need the STJ to be juiced/north biased, not weaker/suppressed south. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 1 hour ago, IronTy said: Like I said, the meltdowns are gonna be epic. Might need to write-up an unprecedented deb manifesto. For All-Time. But, we ARE getting the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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