CAPE Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 In addition to the 2 threats mentioned in my previous 2 posts, the GEFS is still hinting at surface low development along the SE coast leading up to PD. We do have trackable possibilities in front of us. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 A legit NA blocking pattern is being depicted on all 3 ens means. Canadian has led the way on a stout, west-based -NAO and the latest GEFS and EPS runs are now more bullish on the idea. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: A legit NA blocking pattern is being depicted on all 3 ens means. Canadian has led the way on a stout, west-based -NAO and the latest GEFS and EPS runs are now more bullish on the idea. The West based block increases the odds for a more significant snowfall event for our area I believe. I was just commenting yesterday about the CMC and how it might over do blocking, but as you mentioned, other models have trended to it . Awesome looks there !! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 All those ensemble means showing troughing in the 50/50 region as well. I don’t know if we get a HECS, but seems like it would take incredible bad luck to not get a really nice event later this month. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: All those ensemble means showing troughing in the 50/50 region as well. I don’t know if we get a HECS, but seems like it would take incredible bad luck to not get a really nice event later this month. To me that's what makes it a legitimate atmospheric block with some staying power. Looks like it is evolving into a Rex(dipole) configuration. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 47 minutes ago, CAPE said: A legit NA blocking pattern is being depicted on all 3 ens means. Canadian has led the way on a stout, west-based -NAO and the latest GEFS and EPS runs are now more bullish on the idea. Good stuff. I know many are skeptical but there are reasons I’ve been so bullish even from what might seem an illogical range. 1) nao blocking has not failed us the last 8 years. Everything else has. We’ve actually had some incredibly impressive blocking regimes recently. Just often they’ve been muted by a god awful pacific. But seeing the mjo progressing towards 7/8 in a Nino combined with our two previous blocking regimes this winter left me with little doubt that the nao block would be legit. 2) if you look at all the best analogs to this winter, 1958, 1966, 1987, 2010, 2016, there was a period at some point where things lined up and we got this look. There is variability to when it happened. There is chaos within the patterns. But they all at some point lined up for a period conducive to big snowstorms. The only basin wide strong Ninos that didn’t were the fluke seasons of 92 and 95 where we got no nao help all winter. This just makes sense. It’s supported by everything we see now. Mjo progression. SPV state. Tanking soi. Historically it fits. This is why I said the bar this season has to be high. This really is the rare once a decade type season where we have the potential to go way above avg snowfall. We have to take advantage of it. I think there is a very good chance we do. 23 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 To me that's what makes it a legitimate atmospheric block with some staying power. Looks like it is evolving into a Rex(dipole) configuration.This has to slow down the flow and allow easier energy consolidation. Just wish it was happening now and not during Ian’s sun angle season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Wonder how far South suppression is ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 The 14-15th has trended a bit colder on the GEFS so that is one window to monitor. The period beyond that around PD is starting to look more interesting- colder air in place and more like a typical Nino event with a discrete wave tracking across the south, and less NS interaction. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 31 minutes ago, frd said: Wonder how far South suppression is ? Not worried about suppression for now. Storm tracks almost always shift further north as they get closer (as long as there isn’t an omega block right over us). Sure someone may get hit in NC or even northern SC in one of those threats, but the primary storm track won’t set up that far south. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Snowmageddon memories from 14 years ago are popping up. Hopefully modeling will start coming through soon to keep hopes high around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 The 14-15th has trended a bit colder on the GEFS so that is one window to monitor. The period beyond that around PD is starting to look more interesting- colder air in place and more like a typical Nino event with a discrete wave tracking across the south, and less NS interaction.I’m still intrigued by this period. We normally don’t score during the first wave of a pattern change but I do think if the shortwaves progress correctly we could time something. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Not worried about suppression for now. Storm tracks almost always shift further north as they get closer (as long as there isn’t an omega block right over us). Sure someone may get hit in NC or even northern SC in one of those threats, but the primary storm track won’t set up that far south. Yea suppression is least of my worries. This winter has not lacked precip. Let’s just get the good pattern here and worry about that later . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 38 minutes ago, Heisy said: I’m still intrigued by this period. We normally don’t score during the first wave of a pattern change but I do think if the shortwaves progress correctly we could time something. . True. Though the period around the 18-19th would not actually be the first wave? Unless I misinterpret what you mean. Seems that around the 14th would be the so-called "first wave chance" which would be pretty borderline at best around these parts, though some others may score something from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 @griteater…could this strat weakening be similar to early January? Where a growing -NAO helped weaken the strat vortex which reinforced -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 If this was like 200 hours and under, I'd be prepping to say the F word. GFS has the look..sadly it's la la land range and that's been changing with every run so...take it for what it is. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I'm getting antsy. You know the good part of the movie is coming and you wanna just get to it. We're going to head into the Endgame and win this mofo. We're gonna lose a few along the way, but let us remember the sacrifice they have made. 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I'm getting antsy. You know the good part of the movie is coming and you wanna just get to it. We're going to head into the Endgame and win this mofo. We're gonna lose a few along the way, but let us remember the sacrifice they have made.I’m on pins and needles waiting for the Feb. 16 cutter 2 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Is mid Feb (10th to 19th) still on or delayed to 20th to 29th? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 multiple massive 50/50s with strong blocking and a cold air feed. wow 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 multiple massive 50/50s with strong blocking and a cold air feed. wowGfs having a hard ejacualting shortwaves from the west 1 1 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Gfs having a hard ejacualting shortwaves from the west I totally understand the pattern is epic and I don’t know why I’m taking on the role of deb but how come we still can’t buy a digital snowstorm within 16 days 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I totally understand the pattern is epic and I don’t know why I’m taking on the role of deb but how come we still can’t buy a digital snowstorm within 16 days Today Feb 2. The magic window apparently js pd weekend and beyond so not in range. Euro control has plenty apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Today Feb 2. The magic window apparently js pd weekend and beyond so not in range. Euro control has plenty apparently I remember when I pulled the EURO control for last week (as in seeing how much snow it showed for the week we just went through) and it had an area wide 4-10” with like 3 back to back events. At least when that becomes the OP we’ll have fun outcomes to look at again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I remember when I pulled the EURO control for last week (as in seeing how much snow it showed for the week we just went through) and it had an area wide 4-10” with like 3 back to back events. At least when that becomes the OP we’ll have fun outcomes to look at again Euro control is like gfs before they ruined it and it stopped giving us digital blue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I totally understand the pattern is epic and I don’t know why I’m taking on the role of deb but how come we still can’t buy a digital snowstorm within 16 days It's like back when you were 13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 It's like back when you were 13 2013-2014 was a great winter! I’d take that again. Hopefully that’s where we’re going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Doug K. Forecast is really going to come down to these next 4 weeks or so. He went big on his winter snowfall forecast. Make or break for him. Of course he canceled last winter with his snow fall forecast and was right. Let's hope he's right about this year. I believe he has my area in the 38 to 50 range so I've got some work to do to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: Is mid Feb (10th to 19th) still on or delayed to 20th to 29th? I'd say it's on (~ Feb 19) unless the upper latitude index pattern changes (which it hasn't yet). It also looks like an active STJ starting around that time so well have to just time something right in trend. It was always suppose to be warm before Valentines Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 12z ENS roundup so far. stellar 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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