Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you’re telling me. wow

If secs threat is "guys", mecs threat is "folks", then is this hecs tease "motherfuckers"? @stormtracker?

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

picture perfect progression here. just shows how the split flow comes together with the 50/50 to lead to a bomb

Look at the expanse of the storm, that would rival 1996 in terms of a NESIS score.  Keep in mind thats straight 10-1 on a low resolution control run, which would be very low given that h5 and surface depiction.  Yes I know its a day 20 snowmap, but it shows the potential of this pattern.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Wish I had the 16day GFS ensemble maps from 10 days ago..  I think in the longer range that everyone is talking about (last week of Feb/early Mar), we might have to worry about the staying power of +pna: It hasn't sustained more than a short time for a very long time. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at the expanse of the storm, that would rival 1996 in terms of a NESIS score.  Keep in mind thats straight 10-1 on a low resolution control run, which would be very low given that h5 and surface depiction.  Yes I know its a day 20 snowmap, but it shows the potential of this pattern.  

Yeah I know this is a snow map way out there for the control member...but damn, that's still quite an expansive area of 12"+!!  I don't know if we've seen that kind of signal yet this year, hopefully it's real.

(ETA:  Just as a matter of interest, since you mentioned it, I believe the 1996 storm is one of only two events that hit NESIS level 5?  March 1993 being the other one.)

[osfan24]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at the expanse of the storm, that would rival 1996 in terms of a NESIS score.  Keep in mind thats straight 10-1 on a low resolution control run, which would be very low given that h5 and surface depiction.  Yes I know its a day 20 snowmap, but it shows the potential of this pattern.  

Beautiful.

[stormtracker]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern progression has been keying on that date for a while now, and as you said, now the guidance is actually starting to pick up on a specific wave even in the window.  

21 days.  We're going to lose a few.  This is going weed out the weaklings. 

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If secs threat is "guys", mecs threat is "folks", then is this hecs tease "motherfuckers"? @stormtracker?

HECS is just the F word in all caps

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

21 days.  We're going to lose a few.  This is going weed out the weaklings. 

Yup, most definitely.  If (if, if, if!!!) this kind of progression actually occurs, you know there will be tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth with every single ops run once it gets within range to appear on the ops.  Of course, if we can manage some event prior to that time, it may mitigate some of that.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

all this talk about Feb 22-23 is super scary. its 20 days away. The EPS snowchart lit up today for threats way before then

Yes it is. I've already made my non-scientific reasoning why...I mean perhaps this year could finally be the year to break the post PD-March 1st bad luck streak! Ya never know.

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

picture perfect progression here. just shows how the split flow comes together with the 50/50 to lead to a bomb

Now THIS here: I'd MUCH rather be bet in something for this weekend...why? Because our history of PD weekends in Niños is frickin' epic! It just "feels" like a better chance (not scientific, just a feel). Now scientifically, what @psuhoffman is saying about the 22nd/23rd being better odds makes sense with the -NAO flexing and all. Now of course...if the timing of the relax of the flex is moved up a few days...then maybe PD 

[Ji]

If we pretend Jan 10-20 was our Dec 2009 then the Feb 20-30 maybe our Feb 2-10 2009. As psu said..:it may be a delayed version of that analog

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Yeah I know this is a snow map way out there for the control member...but damn, that's still quite an expansive area of 12"+!!  I don't know if we've seen that kind of signal yet this year, hopefully it's real.

(ETA:  Just as a matter of interest, since you mentioned it, I believe the 1996 storm is one of only two events that hit NESIS level 5?  March 1993 being the other one.)

Yes 

[snowmagnet]

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at the expanse of the storm, that would rival 1996 in terms of a NESIS score.  Keep in mind thats straight 10-1 on a low resolution control run, which would be very low given that h5 and surface depiction.  Yes I know its a day 20 snowmap, but it shows the potential of this pattern.  

This is an Ensemble Mean for 7 days. That’s some good consensus. But it is the control, so what does that mean? Is the GEFS similar for the time period?

[Heisy]

This is an Ensemble Mean for 7 days. That’s some good consensus. But it is the control, so what does that mean? Is the GEFS similar for the time period?

It doesn’t mean anything except the pattern during this period is conducive for snow


.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

It doesn’t mean anything except the pattern during this period is conducive for snow


.

It does also mean we have a legit shot at a MECS/HECS, which is something that couldn't be said for the last 8 years.

[Ji]

It does also mean we have a legit shot at a MECS/HECS, which is something that couldn't be said for the last 8 years.

We have had several chances for mecs/hecs in the past several years

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

We have had several chances for mecs/hecs in the past several years

Not really, no. Not with support from a background pattern like the plots we're seeing for mid-late month

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

We have had several chances for mecs/hecs in the past several years

Dec 2018 and Feb 1 2021 were really the only two legit changes we’ve had for a hecs storm since 2016 and neither was really as good as this setup. 

[paulythegun]

[NorthArlington101]

Next

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Meh 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dec 2018 and Feb 1 2021 were really the only two legit changes we’ve had for a hecs storm since 2016 and neither was really as good as this setup. 

This is a bit off topic, but I keep remembering there was a massively hyped HECS that was supposed to be a few days after Christmas a few years back. The models I think had it for a very long time up until a few days before. Was that 2018?  

[WxUSAF]

37 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

This is an Ensemble Mean for 7 days. That’s some good consensus. But it is the control, so what does that mean? Is the GEFS similar for the time period?

No, that's the control run.  It's essentially the Euro op run out to Day 45.  

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

This is a bit off topic, but I keep remembering there was a massively hyped HECS that was supposed to be a few days after Christmas a few years back. The models I think had it for a very long time up until a few days before. Was that 2018?  

I think it was early January 2017?  We had this amazing look for a huge overrunning event that was very consistent from like D7-13.  But it got within D7 and the arctic air won and we got a very cold, but mostly dry, week in January.  Think we got a small clipper to drop a dusting-2".  

[stormy]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

No, that's the control run.  It's essentially the Euro op run out to Day 45.  

A few weeks ago many on this board were trashing the "control" as being crap. What gives here?

[SnowGolfBro]

2 minutes ago, stormy said:

A few weeks ago many on this board were trashing the "control" as being crap. What gives here?

It shows lots of snow 

[Terpeast]

Don’t be surprised folks if the next euro control run shows nothing or rain 20 days out. As long as we have the pattern and it moves closer in time, we should be fine

[Ji]

Meh 

Can’t wait till mcgarbage puts it on Twitter

[frd]

 

[stormy]

7 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

It shows lots of snow 

Hey, that's a hell of an observation!!!!! 

It is sometimes amazing how quickly attitudes and beliefs can change!!!  I am not trying to trash the control!  Just making an honest reaction to past opinions.

[frd]