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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

JenkinsJinkies

By JenkinsJinkies,
in Mid Atlantic

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Blue Dream

Blue Dream

Posted
Posted
  On 2/2/2024 at 5:51 PM, frd said:

You need to visit other forums in the East and conduct therapy, because if you think its a bummer here at times other forums are even worse.  I totally get it though.  Its been a very long time for some areas. I understand the frustration.  

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The NYC forum is the worst for sure

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stormtracker
stormtracker

As many of you know, we have lost a lot of your comrades.  This is going to be a rough, trying and particularly dangerous situation developing as we wait for the pattern change.  There will be tempers

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

Good stuff. I know many are skeptical but there are reasons I’ve been so bullish even from what might seem an illogical range.  1) nao blocking has not failed us the last 8 years. Everything e

brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

then, you have the 2nd! and the 6th! and the 12th... and the 17th....... and the 20th

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted
  On 2/2/2024 at 5:46 PM, CAPE said:

The Canadian has been more bullish on the idea of a strong west based -NAO. Maybe the better models will get there.

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GEFS is a lot blockier today. it has a strong progressive bias so it would struggle with blocking due to wave breaking… that often features anomalous troughs to get it going 

IMG_4538.thumb.png.1210dc7af3e158a5bc29f07ce1377202.png

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
  On 2/2/2024 at 6:23 PM, Heisy said:

Not sure it was posted, this is just for fun with the range , but wow… that’s like a HECS setup cold dome over us and STJ gearing up. 5031498aec7734ef2765e43ae0003e67.jpg
6b23157e73f4771ee663d63030317d1c.jpg


.

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Verbatim (yeah, I know, ops at 384h!!!) the surface is not great, nor is the 850 hPa level.  As depicted it looks a bit too far north?  But yeah, definitely agree with you on the overall "look", even if it's a bit off in this run.

(ETA:  There is actually a surface low forming off the SC/GA coast at that time as well.)

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
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Hey guys! Today's LR ensembles look really good for a possible storm around Feb 19th. 

https://ibb.co/r4tx7cj

The -EPO is what I really like to see, because that has the biggest net difference to our Winter snowfall (temps+precip together). +PNA's are cold, and they favor low pressure on the coastline, but sometimes they can be as moisture starved as they are cold.  This setup looks really good for ~Feb 19... the N. Pacific low east of the Aleutian island/+PNA spot, is really good for our active STJ and a potential monster storm!

The LR hasn't been trending favorably inside 12 days lately, so that's the only negative... but as guidance looks now, I'd say big potential likely ~ Feb 19

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
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  On 2/2/2024 at 5:41 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

just a beautiful retrograding -NAO here alongside split flow and a roaring STJ. trough is in the east by the 13th, as well. no can kick in sight

IMG_4536.thumb.png.a16b7d902d2609112bb6b30f1ef92d42.png

 

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This one looks even better for coming SECS/MECS, especially if that NE trough becomes a 50/50 low. The N. Pacific low south of the Gulf of Alaska is in the perfect position, with active energy along the STJ in the southern US. Let's see if it holds

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snowmagnet

snowmagnet

Posted
Posted
  On 2/2/2024 at 6:49 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Hey guys! Today's LR ensembles look really good for a possible storm around Feb 19th. 

https://ibb.co/r4tx7cj

The -EPO is what I really like to see, because that has the biggest net difference to our Winter snowfall (temps+precip together). +PNA's are cold, and they favor low pressure on the coastline, but sometimes they can be as moisture starved as they are cold.  This setup looks really good for ~Feb 19... the N. Pacific low east of the Aleutian island/+PNA spot, is really good for our active STJ and a potential monster storm!

The LR hasn't been trending favorably inside 12 days lately, so that's the only negative... but as guidance looks now, I'd say big potential likely ~ Feb 19

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PDIII… 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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  On 2/2/2024 at 8:26 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

weeklies seem to be keying in on the 23rd. the fact that you can actually see a wave from the STJ deepen at this range is nuts. retrograding block and 50/50 in place 

IMG_4543.thumb.gif.f2df05ebdcca194fd1b9e1c6ba685657.gif

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The pattern progression has been keying on that date for a while now, and as you said, now the guidance is actually starting to pick up on a specific wave even in the window.  

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
  On 2/2/2024 at 8:42 PM, psuhoffman said:

The pattern progression has been keying on that date for a while now, and as you said, now the guidance is actually starting to pick up on a specific wave even in the window.  

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all this talk about Feb 22-23 is super scary. its 20 days away. The EPS snowchart lit up today for threats way before then

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted
  On 2/2/2024 at 8:42 PM, psuhoffman said:

The pattern progression has been keying on that date for a while now, and as you said, now the guidance is actually starting to pick up on a specific wave even in the window.  

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you’re also getting SPV weakening that’s coupled. we could be in through early March

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 2/2/2024 at 8:45 PM, Ji said:

all this talk about Feb 22-23 is super scary. its 20 days away. The EPS snowchart lit up today for threats way before then

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We got 2 snowstorms before Feb 5 2010.  And one after.  And that was what made that period our best ever, epic, every adjective you can throw at it, vs just a good period.  But from 2 weeks out in 2010 we had identified the period around Feb 5 as the best chance for a big storm.  This is similar.  Saying that around Feb 23 looks really really good for a big snowstorm doesn't mean it can't snow before or after that.  The pattern isn't awful prior to that.  I wouldn't be shocked if we got multiple hits from this coming period.  But if you look at how things are evolving, NAO really starting to tank around Feb 15, peaking around Feb 18-20 then retrograding/relaxing some...STJ getting active during that window, and the NS waves prior to Feb 20 having carved the thermal boundary to our south...everything is set up perfectly for that period.  If you want to put money down on a HECS between Feb 21-25 is the absolute best chance.  I wouldn't kick the Feb 17-20 period out of bed though, just it might be a little too soon in the progression.  

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted
  On 2/2/2024 at 8:50 PM, psuhoffman said:

We got 2 snowstorms before Feb 5 2010.  And one after.  And that was what made that period our best ever, epic, every adjective you can throw at it, vs just a good period.  But from 2 weeks out in 2010 we had identified the period around Feb 5 as the best chance for a big storm.  This is similar.  Saying that around Feb 23 looks really really good for a big snowstorm doesn't mean it can't snow before or after that.  The pattern isn't awful prior to that.  I wouldn't be shocked if we got multiple hits from this coming period.  But if you look at how things are evolving, NAO really starting to tank around Feb 15, peaking around Feb 18-20 then retrograding/relaxing some...STJ getting active during that window, and the NS waves prior to Feb 20 having carved the thermal boundary to our south...everything is set up perfectly for that period.  If you want to put money down on a HECS between Feb 22-25 is the absolute best chance.  I wouldn't kick the Feb 18-22 period out of bed though, just it might be a little too soon in the progression.  

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picture perfect progression here. just shows how the split flow comes together with the 50/50 to lead to a bomb

IMG_4544.thumb.gif.4e066e56906762077c156d5f50a75edb.gif

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
  On 2/2/2024 at 8:42 PM, psuhoffman said:

The pattern progression has been keying on that date for a while now, and as you said, now the guidance is actually starting to pick up on a specific wave even in the window.  

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Couldn't agree more. I haven't posted much lately but echoed pretty similar thoughts wrt the pattern progression a day or so ago in my home forum. This is going to require an insane amount of patience, especially as we sift thru a rainer (or 2?) to get closer to this threat window.

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