Blue Dream Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2 minutes ago, frd said: You need to visit other forums in the East and conduct therapy, because if you think its a bummer here at times other forums are even worse. I totally get it though. Its been a very long time for some areas. I understand the frustration. The NYC forum is the worst for sure 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: The Canadian has been more bullish on the idea of a strong west based -NAO. Maybe the better models will get there. GEFS is a lot blockier today. it has a strong progressive bias so it would struggle with blocking due to wave breaking… that often features anomalous troughs to get it going 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: Maybe the better models will get there. "The better models"... you mean Mr. 4th place GFS? I voted it gets demoted to the JV with the Icon and the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: just a beautiful retrograding -NAO here alongside split flow and a roaring STJ. trough is in the east by the 13th, as well. no can kick in sight But where's my +PNA? i was told there would be a +PNA. @Stormchaserchuck1 promised me a +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: But where's my +PNA? i was told there would be a +PNA. @Stormchaserchuck1 promised me a +PNA. Patience… it’s coming. Where’s the faith in Chuck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Not sure it was posted, this is just for fun with the range , but wow… that’s like a HECS setup cold dome over us and STJ gearing up. . 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 15 minutes ago, Heisy said: Not sure it was posted, this is just for fun with the range , but wow… that’s like a HECS setup cold dome over us and STJ gearing up. . Verbatim (yeah, I know, ops at 384h!!!) the surface is not great, nor is the 850 hPa level. As depicted it looks a bit too far north? But yeah, definitely agree with you on the overall "look", even if it's a bit off in this run. (ETA: There is actually a surface low forming off the SC/GA coast at that time as well.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Boy howdy, GEFS is purty at the end. Woof woof aleet aleet 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Boy howdy, GEFS is purty at the end. Woof woof aleet aleet Folks??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Hey guys! Today's LR ensembles look really good for a possible storm around Feb 19th. https://ibb.co/r4tx7cj The -EPO is what I really like to see, because that has the biggest net difference to our Winter snowfall (temps+precip together). +PNA's are cold, and they favor low pressure on the coastline, but sometimes they can be as moisture starved as they are cold. This setup looks really good for ~Feb 19... the N. Pacific low east of the Aleutian island/+PNA spot, is really good for our active STJ and a potential monster storm! The LR hasn't been trending favorably inside 12 days lately, so that's the only negative... but as guidance looks now, I'd say big potential likely ~ Feb 19 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 If chucks in I'm in lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: just a beautiful retrograding -NAO here alongside split flow and a roaring STJ. trough is in the east by the 13th, as well. no can kick in sight This one looks even better for coming SECS/MECS, especially if that NE trough becomes a 50/50 low. The N. Pacific low south of the Gulf of Alaska is in the perfect position, with active energy along the STJ in the southern US. Let's see if it holds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Hey guys! Today's LR ensembles look really good for a possible storm around Feb 19th. https://ibb.co/r4tx7cj The -EPO is what I really like to see, because that has the biggest net difference to our Winter snowfall (temps+precip together). +PNA's are cold, and they favor low pressure on the coastline, but sometimes they can be as moisture starved as they are cold. This setup looks really good for ~Feb 19... the N. Pacific low east of the Aleutian island/+PNA spot, is really good for our active STJ and a potential monster storm! The LR hasn't been trending favorably inside 12 days lately, so that's the only negative... but as guidance looks now, I'd say big potential likely ~ Feb 19 PDIII… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 45 minutes ago, Heisy said: Not sure it was posted, this is just for fun with the range , but wow… that’s like a HECS setup cold dome over us and STJ gearing up. Right rear entrance of northern jet + Front left exit of southern jet = double jet signature! 3 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 i like how the euro has the 850 line south of us at Day 10..feb 12th 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Boy howdy, GEFS is purty at the end. Woof woof aleet aleet you’re telling me. wow 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Boy howdy, GEFS is purty at the end. Woof woof aleet aleet Does "Woof woof aleet aleet" mean it's gon' snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 32 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Right rear entrance of northern jet + Front left exit of southern jet = double jet signature! Not sure if the Vince memes really are appropriate right now lol 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 9 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: Does "Woof woof aleet aleet" mean it's gon' snow? Nope. Just means that, as of today, we have as good a chance at a big snow as we’ve had in years. Let’s revel in that for now! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Folks??? Great screen name, btw. “There’s nothing quite so bad as that which is not so bad”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 11 minutes ago, das said: Great screen name, btw. “There’s nothing quite so bad as that which is not so bad”. Thanks! And it's a great movie, too! That quote you give is one of many good ones in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 weeklies seem to be keying in on the 23rd. the fact that you can actually see a wave from the STJ deepen at this range is nuts. retrograding block and 50/50 in place 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: weeklies seem to be keying in on the 23rd. the fact that you can actually see a wave from the STJ deepen at this range is nuts. retrograding block and 50/50 in place Sweet Jesus! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: weeklies seem to be keying in on the 23rd. the fact that you can actually see a wave from the STJ deepen at this range is nuts. retrograding block and 50/50 in place The pattern progression has been keying on that date for a while now, and as you said, now the guidance is actually starting to pick up on a specific wave even in the window. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: weeklies seem to be keying in on the 23rd. the fact that you can actually see a wave from the STJ deepen at this range is nuts. retrograding block and 50/50 in place That is effing nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern progression has been keying on that date for a while now, and as you said, now the guidance is actually starting to pick up on a specific wave even in the window. all this talk about Feb 22-23 is super scary. its 20 days away. The EPS snowchart lit up today for threats way before then 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern progression has been keying on that date for a while now, and as you said, now the guidance is actually starting to pick up on a specific wave even in the window. you’re also getting SPV weakening that’s coupled. we could be in through early March 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 6 minutes ago, Ji said: all this talk about Feb 22-23 is super scary. its 20 days away. The EPS snowchart lit up today for threats way before then We got 2 snowstorms before Feb 5 2010. And one after. And that was what made that period our best ever, epic, every adjective you can throw at it, vs just a good period. But from 2 weeks out in 2010 we had identified the period around Feb 5 as the best chance for a big storm. This is similar. Saying that around Feb 23 looks really really good for a big snowstorm doesn't mean it can't snow before or after that. The pattern isn't awful prior to that. I wouldn't be shocked if we got multiple hits from this coming period. But if you look at how things are evolving, NAO really starting to tank around Feb 15, peaking around Feb 18-20 then retrograding/relaxing some...STJ getting active during that window, and the NS waves prior to Feb 20 having carved the thermal boundary to our south...everything is set up perfectly for that period. If you want to put money down on a HECS between Feb 21-25 is the absolute best chance. I wouldn't kick the Feb 17-20 period out of bed though, just it might be a little too soon in the progression. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: We got 2 snowstorms before Feb 5 2010. And one after. And that was what made that period our best ever, epic, every adjective you can throw at it, vs just a good period. But from 2 weeks out in 2010 we had identified the period around Feb 5 as the best chance for a big storm. This is similar. Saying that around Feb 23 looks really really good for a big snowstorm doesn't mean it can't snow before or after that. The pattern isn't awful prior to that. I wouldn't be shocked if we got multiple hits from this coming period. But if you look at how things are evolving, NAO really starting to tank around Feb 15, peaking around Feb 18-20 then retrograding/relaxing some...STJ getting active during that window, and the NS waves prior to Feb 20 having carved the thermal boundary to our south...everything is set up perfectly for that period. If you want to put money down on a HECS between Feb 22-25 is the absolute best chance. I wouldn't kick the Feb 18-22 period out of bed though, just it might be a little too soon in the progression. picture perfect progression here. just shows how the split flow comes together with the 50/50 to lead to a bomb 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern progression has been keying on that date for a while now, and as you said, now the guidance is actually starting to pick up on a specific wave even in the window. Couldn't agree more. I haven't posted much lately but echoed pretty similar thoughts wrt the pattern progression a day or so ago in my home forum. This is going to require an insane amount of patience, especially as we sift thru a rainer (or 2?) to get closer to this threat window. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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