Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

  On 2/1/2024 at 8:44 PM, Weather Will said:

The days are getting longer and the sun is getting stronger, but the H5 anomalies say hold on a little longer; will it snow before the daffodils grow, only God really knows....

no snow maps today:)

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I know.. the sun has been really bright around late February/early March the last few years especially.. I feel like we are going against trends to get this cold Feb 15th+

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 2/1/2024 at 8:44 PM, Weather Will said:

The days are getting longer and the sun is getting stronger, but the H5 anomalies say hold on a little longer; will it snow before the daffodils grow, only God really knows....

no snow maps today:)

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That an original? If so, well done 

[Jebman]

  On 2/1/2024 at 8:44 PM, Weather Will said:

The days are getting longer and the sun is getting stronger, but the H5 anomalies say hold on a little longer; will it snow before the daffodils grow, only God really knows....

 

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Classical sig material

[BlizzardNole]

  On 2/1/2024 at 7:00 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Big energy dropping into the SW on the 12z GEFS.. Almost perfect position of the N. Pacific low, strong snowstorm potential ~ Feb 19th, maybe all the way down to Atl/NC if this is to be believed

https://ibb.co/gDMrtYM

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Cue the music -- ...party like it's 1979

[Weather Will]

MJO finally moving into Phase 8 by the 15th.

[psuhoffman]

The snow means on the extended guidance is now responding as I would expect and shows 2 very clear signals in coordination with the cycles of the nao. As expected by the way the high latitudes are progressing one is centered around Feb 22-26 and the next around March 4-10.  The look outside these two periods isn’t bad and we very well could snow from any of the waves after Feb 12 or so but those are the two best opportunities for big storms. 

[Ji]

  On 2/1/2024 at 9:37 PM, psuhoffman said:

The snow means on the extended guidance is now responding as I would expect and shows 2 very clear signals in coordination with the cycles of the nao. As expected by the way the high latitudes are progressing one is centered around Feb 22-26 and the next around March 4-10.  The look outside these two periods isn’t bad and we very well could snow from any of the waves after Feb 12 or so but those are the two best opportunities for big storms. 

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ooof--try to sell that to the winter is over crowd

[psuhoffman]

Oh and F all these twitter Johnny come latelies who want to jump on this now when we’ve been tracking it in here so long I think the first thread was chiseled with rock and stone. 

[psuhoffman]

  On 2/1/2024 at 9:53 PM, Ji said:

ooof--try to sell that to the winter is over crowd

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Screw those people too. I don’t have to sell anyone anything. Snow is snow. The same people who complain about not getting any snow then are gonna be super picky about when it needs to snow and their idea of “too late” tosses like 1/3 of our snow climo. No. Not engaging in that BS nonsense. 

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 2/1/2024 at 9:37 PM, psuhoffman said:

The snow means on the extended guidance is now responding as I would expect and shows 2 very clear signals in coordination with the cycles of the nao. As expected by the way the high latitudes are progressing one is centered around Feb 22-26 and the next around March 4-10.  The look outside these two periods isn’t bad and we very well could snow from any of the waves after Feb 12 or so but those are the two best opportunities for big storms. 

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This month is may test the non-scientific slightly superstitious theory of whether we can get a MECS or HECS to hit the last week of Feb...lol (I won't argue too much but given all the misses, I'll personally never be comfortable with that week until it does) Sounds like you're saying we'd actually need more luck BEFORE that week? (I.e. the waves coming after the 12th?)

[stormy]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:10 PM, psuhoffman said:

Screw those people too. I don’t have to sell anyone anything. Snow is snow. The same people who complain about not getting any snow then are gonna be super picky about when it needs to snow and their idea of “too late” tosses like 1/3 of our snow climo. No. Not engaging in that BS nonsense. 

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Give em hell boss, I have to be in your camp!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:03 PM, psuhoffman said:

Oh and F all these twitter Johnny come latelies who want to jump on this now when we’ve been tracking it in here so long I think the first thread was chiseled with rock and stone. 

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[stormy]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:16 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

This month is may test the non-scientific slightly superstitious theory of whether we can get a MECS or HECS to hit the last week of Feb...lol (I won't argue too much but given all the misses, I'll personally never be comfortable with that week until it does) Sounds like you're saying we'd actually need more luck BEFORE that week? (I.e. the waves coming after the 12th?)

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When it snows, it snows, whether in 1824 or 2024.  Don't waste your life trying to time snow!

[IronTy]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:18 PM, stormy said:

Give em hell boss, I have to be in your camp!

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I'll fall on the sword, March is too late for snow for me.  I'm ready to start gardening and for moth season by then.  But I'm in SoMD and we haven't had any good storms down here in March since I've been here so I'm ok with you guys getting a big storm and me missing out.  Sloppy wet snow isn't worth it in my book.  

[CAPE]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:22 PM, IronTy said:

I'll fall on the sword, March is too late for snow for me.  I'm ready to start gardening and for moth season by then.  But I'm in SoMD and we haven't had any good storms down here in March since I've been here so I'm ok with you guys getting a big storm and me missing out.  Sloppy wet snow isn't worth it in my book.  

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But you own a mountain right? It can be deep winter out there until mid April.

[Ji]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:10 PM, psuhoffman said:

Screw those people too. I don’t have to sell anyone anything. Snow is snow. The same people who complain about not getting any snow then are gonna be super picky about when it needs to snow and their idea of “too late” tosses like 1/3 of our snow climo. No. Not engaging in that BS nonsense. 

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i remember a heavy snow in late February back in 2005,2006..etc...it was the last week of the month. It was a really nice coastal but it had a super hard time getting to 5 inches. I think it was one of those dry noreasters where the map looked great but it had a really narrow shield but that storm gave me a bad taste in my mouth for late February storms. 

[stormy]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:22 PM, IronTy said:

I'll fall on the sword, March is too late for snow for me.  I'm ready to start gardening and for moth season by then.  But I'm in SoMD and we haven't had any good storms down here in March since I've been here so I'm ok with you guys getting a big storm and me missing out.  Sloppy wet snow isn't worth it in my book.  

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I understand your thoughts completely.  Elevation folks like myself  are accustomed to March snow.

We do your March stuff later in April and especially May.

[HighStakes]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:27 PM, Ji said:

i remember a heavy snow in late February back in 2005,2006..etc...it was the last week of the month. It was a really nice coastal but it had a super hard time getting to 5 inches. I think it was one of those dry noreasters where the map looked great but it had a really narrow shield but that storm gave me a bad taste in my mouth for late February storms. 

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2005. The back to back underachieving Miller A's.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:22 PM, IronTy said:

But I'm in SoMD and we haven't had any good storms down here in March since I've been here

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I take it you weren't here in 2018 then?

[Ji]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:31 PM, HighStakes said:

2005. The back to back underachieving Miller A's.

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haha....there was two of them? I remember one...and it was really wet but very pretty

[WVclimo]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:33 PM, Ji said:

haha....there was two of them? I remember one...and it was really wet but very pretty

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First one was on the 24th and dropped 3-6” across the area.  The one on the 28th looked huge on satellite in the SE but could never consolidate.  I think we ended with 3-4” after it snowed lightly all day and finally started to accumulate well after dark.

[IronTy]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:27 PM, CAPE said:

But you own a mountain right? It can be deep winter out there until mid April.

Idk, I get moth fever hard by April so even out by DCL I don't like seeing snow that late!

Speaking of mountains...I was the first person on the summit of Mount Rainier this past August when me and a co-worker climbed. We got the summit all to ourselves for 45min as the sun came up with 20 below wind chills. I even had to pee on the summit during which time I deduced that I was making the highest elevation pee in the entire lower 48 (airplanes aside) that morning. Life milestone achieved.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

[IronTy]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:32 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I take it you weren't here in 2018 then?

Yes, but that snow wasn't really that great. Good for a March snow, no doubt, but not really a very exciting event.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk


Eta - went back and found a pic - pretty, but barely covered the driveway.

[HighStakes]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:36 PM, WVclimo said:

First one was on the 24th and dropped 3-6” across the area.  The one on the 28th looked huge on satellite in the SE but could never consolidate.  I think we ended with 3-4” after it snowed lightly all day and finally started to accumulate well after dark.

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  On 2/1/2024 at 10:33 PM, Ji said:

haha....there was two of them? I remember one...and it was really wet but very pretty

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The forecast for both storms were 6-10 with up to 12. I think I got around 5 maybe close to 6 in Reisterstown but it was a struggle.

[CAPE]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:36 PM, IronTy said:

Idk, I get moth fever hard by April so even out by DCL I don't like seeing snow that late!

Speaking of mountains...I was the first person on the summit of Mount Rainier this past August when me and a co-worker climbed. We got the summit all to ourselves for 45min as the sun came up with 20 below wind chills. I even had to pee on the summit during which time I deduced that I was making the highest elevation pee in the entire lower 48 (airplanes aside) that morning. Life milestone achieved.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk
 

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Making yellow snow at the summit of Mt Rainier is quite the achievement.

[blizzardmeiser]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:22 PM, IronTy said:

I'll fall on the sword, March is too late for snow for me.  I'm ready to start gardening and for moth season by then.  But I'm in SoMD and we haven't had any good storms down here in March since I've been here so I'm ok with you guys getting a big storm and me missing out.  Sloppy wet snow isn't worth it in my book.  

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Once we change the clocks and it’s getting dark at 7 it’s spring. But happy to see a lot of snow before that point.  

[psuhoffman]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:16 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

This month is may test the non-scientific slightly superstitious theory of whether we can get a MECS or HECS to hit the last week of Feb...lol (I won't argue too much but given all the misses, I'll personally never be comfortable with that week until it does) Sounds like you're saying we'd actually need more luck BEFORE that week? (I.e. the waves coming after the 12th?)

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The waves earlier could work but the nao is going negative. The boundary is also pretty far north to start and there is a lot of NS influence.  It’s not a bad look. I’m not saying the waves around 14-20 have no shot. But as the nao peaks then wanes and retrogrades west there will be a window with the boundary to our south and a relaxing but still blocked flow. That’s when we get a period where all we need is a healthy STJ wave to come along and boom. That’s the simple path to big snowstorms here. The waves before that would require phasing, timing with a 50/50, it’s just more complicated. 

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:31 PM, HighStakes said:

2005. The back to back underachieving Miller A's.

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@Ji those storms don’t fail because of the time of year.  The first was relatively weak. The second failed to phase and intensify. It was a shame. Beautiful pattern. 990 gulf low. Perfect track. But it did this weird fujiwara with the mid and upper features and never fully developed a healthy CCB.  There was just a huge area of light snow.  We wouldn’t have done any better had it been earlier.  

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

GOM moisture!

Associated with my SW vort/weakness energy at 384hr..  to time a storm ~Feb 19th

[Stormchaserchuck1]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:37 PM, IronTy said:

Eta - went back and found a pic - pretty, but barely covered the driveway. 

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Pretty

[PrinceFrederickWx]

  On 2/1/2024 at 10:37 PM, IronTy said:

Yes, but that snow wasn't really that great. Good for a March snow, no doubt, but not really a very exciting event.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk


Eta - went back and found a pic - pretty, but barely covered the driveway.

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I measured 7.3” in that event (3/21/2018). Most of SoMD did very well.