Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[psuhoffman]

I know some are getting nervous about "the clock" but we are fine IMO.  Yea of course ideally it would be awesome if this was setting in late January like in 2010.  That was perfect.  But the pattern setting up mid February is not too late.  We have had some epic runs late Feb through March in the past.  1959, 1960, 1964, 2014, 2015.  In 2018 the only reason we didn't get more snow in March was that several storms got suppressed!  1980 there was a HECS to our south in March.   Getting this type of pattern is extremely rare.  It only happens once or twice a decade!  So there is simply a limited sample size and opportunity.  But the times this type of pattern has happened in late Feb or March we had no problem getting snow.  I do not think we are "running out of time" at all.  If the coming pattern is legit we will be able to snow well into March in that look.  

[psuhoffman]

  On 2/1/2024 at 3:58 PM, Terpeast said:

Looking at analog matches centered on Feb 11 seems a tad too early. I'd want to see what the matches look like centered around Feb 18th or so.

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I was thinking that also, but even so I didn't think those dates were that bad.  

[stormy]

  On 1/31/2024 at 11:53 PM, psuhoffman said:

The local results could be similar and 1960 was an amazing late winter period, but 1958 is the better analog because it was a similar strength Nino. And you can see the similarities in the pacific to the coming pattern on the 1958 h5 composite below. 

compare that to 1960 which was an enso neutral year and you see while there is definitely a similar nao blocking regime and subsequent eastern trough, the pacific pattern is not as close a match.  It’s not way off but it’s lacking the canonical Nino central pac low, or at the least is muted. 

This doesn’t mean the ground truth doesn’t end up similar but that’s why people are using 58 more than 60 as an analog. 2010 is an excellent analog to the coming pattern but obviously this is going to be displaced about 2 weeks later than 2010 which makes 1958 the best analog we have imo. 

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Thanks!    Amazingly similar H5 over the MA with significant differences over the Pacific.

[Terpeast]

  On 2/1/2024 at 3:58 PM, psuhoffman said:

I know some are getting nervous about "the clock" but we are fine IMO.  Yea of course ideally it would be awesome if this was setting in late January like in 2010.  That was perfect.  But the pattern setting up mid February is not too late.  We have had some epic runs late Feb through March in the past.  1959, 1960, 1964, 2014, 2015.  In 2018 the only reason we didn't get more snow in March was that several storms got suppressed!  1980 there was a HECS to our south in March.   Getting this type of pattern is extremely rare.  It only happens once or twice a decade!  So there is simply a limited sample size and opportunity.  But the times this type of pattern has happened in late Feb or March we had no problem getting snow.  I do not think we are "running out of time" at all.  If the coming pattern is legit we will be able to snow well into March in that look.  

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Yeah, I'm less worried about the clock running out on us than I was a week ago, or even a few days ago. 

That 540 line is pretty close to us on the D12-15 ensembles... and that's geopotential height, not thicknesses!

[MDScienceTeacher]

  On 2/1/2024 at 4:02 PM, Terpeast said:

and that's geopotential height, not thicknesses!

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Can you explain the difference with this?

[mattie g]

  On 2/1/2024 at 2:32 PM, paulythegun said:

Can somebody tell me the exact moment when the wave breaks? I'm very excited for the wave to break. Also, when does the snow pattern make landfall? Have we sampled it yet? What about 06z/18z? Do we need more balloons?

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I’m not above a little banter in the analysis threads, but I feel the need to point out that this post sucks.

[Terpeast]

  On 2/1/2024 at 4:08 PM, MDScienceTeacher said:

Can you explain the difference with this?

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[Ji]

  On 2/1/2024 at 4:09 PM, mattie g said:

I’m not above a little banter in the analysis threads, but I feel the need to point out that this post sucks.

Yea he is overdoing the comedy and also underdoing it cause it’s not that funny. Some is though

[Heisy]

Similar type progression as last nights euro could set the table mid month for an event. N/S energy advancing ahead for any left over energy in SW



.

[WxUSAF]

  On 2/1/2024 at 4:33 PM, Heisy said:

Similar type progression as last nights euro could set the table mid month for an event. N/S energy advancing ahead for any left over energy in SW



.

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My wag is that we want that northern low to be strong so it can drag in some cold air behind it and set the thermal boundary to our south. We probably also want some better spacing between the northern low and the southern low behind it.

[Kevin Reilly]

  On 2/1/2024 at 2:17 PM, frd said:

I believe at the peak of the  pattern and possibly afterwards for a bit we will have some bizarre  storm evolutions, such as loops, stalls and retrogrades.  Looks crazy. 

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Think we are about to see this on February 6th to 7th just not in the right spot too far east.

[Jebman]

  On 2/1/2024 at 2:10 PM, CAPE said:

It appears we are getting the 'ideal' pattern with all the teleconnections in the desired phase. With the coupled PNA/EPO ridge and the NAO ridge building westward and squeezing the TPV southward, the NS is going to be busy and chaotic. Tracking is going to be 'fun', with models struggling to resolve wave interactions and timing between the northern and southern streams.

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We are gonna be tracking day and night. I can hardly wait.

[frd]

  On 2/1/2024 at 2:01 PM, Heisy said:

From our Philly forum…


00z 06 GFS show a PV split btw right around mid month. If we have some blocking at that time could even enhance everything. Ensembles just stretch it, just seems everything is lining up at just the right time.




.

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[frd]

 

 

As for the - NAO arriving later in Feb, looks like game on.

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Big energy dropping into the SW on the 12z GEFS.. Almost perfect position of the N. Pacific low, strong snowstorm potential ~ Feb 19th, maybe all the way down to Atl/NC if this is to be believed

https://ibb.co/gDMrtYM

[mattie g]

^

I was about to post about the NAO on the 12z GEPS. It's an absolute beast of a block and has a beauty of a corresponding EPO/PNA ridge. Really starts getting established on/around the 13th and is a pig by the 17th (hour 384). GEFS is about 36-48 hours behind but follows the same progression.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I really like how favorable the Pacific is. Usually in +PNA you get a trough over the Aleutian islands, but its placement a little east on the models is the perfect position for our historical strong snowstorms.  

[frd]

  On 2/1/2024 at 7:36 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I really like how favorable the Pacific is. Usually in +PNA you get a trough over the Aleutian islands, but its placement a little east on the models is the perfect position for our historical strong snowstorms.  

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Party on Chuck 

[WxUSAF]

  On 2/1/2024 at 4:42 PM, WxUSAF said:

My wag is that we want that northern low to be strong so it can drag in some cold air behind it and set the thermal boundary to our south. We probably also want some better spacing between the northern low and the southern low behind it.

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This is more what the euro does actually. Drags more cold air behind it. 

[brooklynwx99]

here is where we stand by the 14th on all ENS... seems like a push forward, if anything. all are in very strong agreement

[frd]

3 D Vortex

current 

 

Hour 384 forecast from the GFS.  Notice the bagginess and displacement North South orientation, along with hints of a split at lower levels.  

Overall positive signs for the HL. 

 

[Ji]

  On 2/1/2024 at 7:53 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

here is where we stand by the 14th on all ENS... seems like a push forward, if anything. all are in very strong agreement

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you are showing us the wrong blue

[aldie 22]

CWG calling for above average temps and near average snow for February

[mattie g]

  On 2/1/2024 at 8:24 PM, aldie 22 said:

CWG calling for above average temps and near average snow for February

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Dang. They really know their stuff!

[BristowWx]

  On 2/1/2024 at 8:24 PM, aldie 22 said:

CWG calling for above average temps and near average snow for February

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What’s avg snow at DCA?  Like 5 inches 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Today I'm going to say that the Euro snow maps for Feb 18-20+ is wrong.. and that we'll do well. Wild card is -NAO not happening like the models show, but it seems to be a strong feature on the CMC ensembles

[Ji]

  On 2/1/2024 at 8:24 PM, aldie 22 said:

CWG calling for above average temps and near average snow for February

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hopefully they are not incorporating the first 10 days of Feb

[Stormchaserchuck1]

  On 2/1/2024 at 8:24 PM, aldie 22 said:

CWG calling for above average temps and near average snow for February

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For the first 2 weeks of February, we are like +5. All you have to do is look at models to see that. that would mean it takes a <-5 anomaly the 2nd half of the month to not be above average. 

[Weather Will]

The days are getting longer and the sun is getting stronger, but the H5 anomalies say hold on a little longer; will it snow before the daffodils grow, only God really knows....

no snow maps today:)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is actually a -AO

https://ibb.co/XX6TJ6p