Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[Ji]

By the way I was right. The 00z control turned that wave into a Mid Atlantic hit. Lala land but at least it’s an example of a more winter storm conducive pattern starting Feb 14-15


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Snow map or it didn’t happen

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

Snow map or it didn’t happen

Put it here

 

[MDScienceTeacher]

12 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS way to go but 2 big hits for the 15th.

 

 

I would venture to say that any run of the GEFS from December to February on a 15 day lead time would show at least one good snow storm for our region 

Unless the majority of the members are saying the same thing, 15 days is too far out to take seriously.  

[Heisy]

From our Philly forum…


00z 06 GFS show a PV split btw right around mid month. If we have some blocking at that time could even enhance everything. Ensembles just stretch it, just seems everything is lining up at just the right time.




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[CAPE]

It appears we are getting the 'ideal' pattern with all the teleconnections in the desired phase. With the coupled PNA/EPO ridge and the NAO ridge building westward and squeezing the TPV southward, the NS is going to be busy and chaotic. Tracking is going to be 'fun', with models struggling to resolve wave interactions and timing between the northern and southern streams.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It appears we are getting the 'ideal' pattern with all the teleconnections in the desired phase. With the coupled PNA/EPO ridge and the NAO ridge building westward and squeezing the TPV southward, the NS is going to be busy and chaotic. Tracking is going to be 'fun', with models struggling to resolve wave interactions and timing between the northern and southern streams.

I believe at the peak of the  pattern and possibly afterwards for a bit we will have some bizarre  storm evolutions, such as loops, stalls and retrogrades.  Looks crazy. 

[frd]

34 minutes ago, Heisy said:

From our Philly forum…


00z 06 GFS show a PV split btw right around mid month. If we have some blocking at that time could even enhance everything. Ensembles just stretch it, just seems everything is lining up at just the right time.




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The signal for the mid month weakening has been there for a bit combined with slower winds and a gradual movement of the PV Southward in a wobbling fashion through hours 384.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, frd said:

I believe at the peak of the  pattern and possibly afterwards for a bit we will have some bizarre  storm evolutions, such as loops, stalls and retrogrades.  Looks crazy. 

I think our best chances will come PD and beyond as the pattern evolves and matures a bit.

[paulythegun]

Can somebody tell me the exact moment when the wave breaks? I'm very excited for the wave to break. Also, when does the snow pattern make landfall? Have we sampled it yet? What about 06z/18z? Do we need more balloons?

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think our best chances will come PD and beyond as the pattern evolves and matures a bit.

I think I figured out what I didn't like under the hood. My best guess right now based on everything I see is the pattern flip will preceded by a west track rain/front sometime around the 12-15th then we go dry for a bit and wait for something to undercut the pna. Guidance is kinda dry after the trough hits and it seems to last. If the northern stream is quiet and all precip events are lower slower southern stream waves, there's typically a 5-7 day gap in between. Maybe the goods are still a week beyond where ens guidance ends. Looking forward to the flip getting closer so I can track analog guidance. Analogs still look pretty bad irt snow chances 

 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Can somebody tell me the exact moment when the wave breaks? I'm very excited for the wave to break. Also, when does the snow pattern make landfall? Have we sampled it yet? What about 06z/18z? Do we need more balloons?

Here ya go

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think I figured out what I didn't like under the hood. My best guess right now based on everything I see is the pattern flip will preceded by a west track rain/front sometime around the 12-15th then we go dry for a bit and wait for something to undercut the pna. Guidance is kinda dry after the trough hits and it seems to last. If the northern stream is quiet and all precip events are lower slower southern stream waves, there's typically a 5-7 day gap in between. Maybe the goods are still a week beyond where ens guidance ends. Looking forward to the flip getting closer so I can track analog guidance. Analogs still look pretty bad irt snow chances 

 

It could go like that. It will be painful for some. The antsy and impatient will be regular visitors to the panic room lol.

[IronTy]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Here ya go

Pamela Anderson remembers...

[Kmlwx]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think I figured out what I didn't like under the hood. My best guess right now based on everything I see is the pattern flip will preceded by a west track rain/front sometime around the 12-15th then we go dry for a bit and wait for something to undercut the pna. Guidance is kinda dry after the trough hits and it seems to last. If the northern stream is quiet and all precip events are lower slower southern stream waves, there's typically a 5-7 day gap in between. Maybe the goods are still a week beyond where ens guidance ends. Looking forward to the flip getting closer so I can track analog guidance. Analogs still look pretty bad irt snow chances 

 

I peeked at the CPC analogs yesterday and yeah they were some turds. 

[blizzardmeiser]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It could go like that. It will be painful for some. The antsy and impatient will be regular visitors to the panic room lol.

only 20 days out.  We've got this. 

[frd]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It could go like that. It will be painful for some. The antsy and impatient will be regular visitors to the panic room lol.

CANSIPS for Feb . Basically cooler but seems like an extended dry period.  Versus split flow in the long range by various ensembles.  

I imagine need to see how  high + the PNA gets.

Too much of a good thing and we might go drier. 

[brooklynwx99]

15 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I peeked at the CPC analogs yesterday and yeah they were some turds. 

well yeah, they're centered when the pattern looks like this, of course the analogs are going to be pretty crappy

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, frd said:

CANSIPS for Feb . Basically cooler but seems like an extended dry period.  Versus split flow in the long range by various ensembles.  

I imagine need to see how  high + the PNA gets.

Too much of a good thing and we might go drier. 

These drool worthy patterns have failure modes same as imperfect/flawed ones often give us a path to victory. In a Nino the stacked PNA/EPO ridge can complicate things. 

[Bob Chill]

24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It could go like that. It will be painful for some. The antsy and impatient will be regular visitors to the panic room lol.

I'm absolutely not convinced about a west track rain around the 12th-15th. Only how it looks to me right now. We've had a ton of rain last 2 months so dry hasn't been a problem at all. Would be a real ass chapper if we get a couple weeks of good air with no precip to mix with it lol

 

 

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

These drool worthy patterns have failure modes same as imperfect/flawed ones often give us a path to victory. In a Nino the stacked PNA/EPO ridge can complicate things. 

you do have a potent STJ undercutting, so I think it increases the odds. the mid-Jan pattern had no STJ and it still managed to produce

[CAPE]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'm absolutely not convinced about a west track rain around the 12th-15th. Only how it looks to me right now. We've had a ton of rain last 2 months so dry hasn't been a problem at all. Would be a real ass chapper if we get a couple weeks of good air with no precip to mix with it lol

 

 

 

 

Yeah I made a couple posts about that period. Looks convoluted with NS energy involved. No way to know how it will go at this juncture. Could end up a Miller B/hybrid deal. Currently on the ens means everything looks a bit too north for us mid month.

[brooklynwx99]

I also think that a lot of the extended modeling showing a dry month for Feb are skewed by how dry the first 10 days or so are. storm track looks active once we actually get into that more favorable pattern

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

well yeah, they're centered when the pattern looks like this, of course the analogs are going to be pretty crappy

 

 

For reasons above my pay grade, this entire winter never had a good analog set except for the time it snowed. Even when the mean looked good at times, nothing good ever matched. Imo- this year is far less a warmer earth problem than it is just a stubborn bad winter. Most of the analogs the whole trip this year have showed that over and over. 

You can take long lead op runs that look good and still come up with a bunch of turd periods. Very frustrating but far from uncommon. We've had plenty like this in the last 80 years. 

This is just an example. I know long lead ops are the last upper air pattern to pull analogs from but even with a very good look like this... the match dates kinda suck lol

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

For reasons above my pay grade, this entire winter never had a good analog set except for the time it snowed. Even when the mean looked good at times, nothing good ever matched. Imo- this year is far less a warmer earth problem than it is just a stubborn bad winter. Most of the analogs the whole trip this year have showed that over and over. 

You can take long lead op runs that look good and still come up with a bunch of turd periods. Very frustrating but far from uncommon. We've had plenty like this in the last 80 years. 

This is just an example. I know long lead ops are the last upper air pattern to pull analogs from but even with a very good look like this... the match dates kinda suck lol

I see what you mean, I would just wait until we get a better Aleutian low to form with + heights poking into AK, analogs should be much better by that point. that looks too overwhelming at that moment, which is probably why 1998 is the top analog lmao

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you do have a potent STJ undercutting, so I think it increases the odds. the mid-Jan pattern had no STJ and it still managed to produce

It did, but we were on the southern edge and had some luck. I would take a duplicate of that with a little more contribution from the southern stream. An active STJ with a quieter NS would be better for the big dog hunters.

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It did, but we were on the southern edge and had some luck. I would take a duplicate of that with a little more contribution from the southern stream. An active STJ with a quieter NS would be better for the big dog hunters.

this time, it looks like we do indeed have a dominant SS with a weaker NS coming over the top. this is what you want for bigger, moisture laden storms

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

It appears we are getting the 'ideal' pattern with all the teleconnections in the desired phase. With the coupled PNA/EPO ridge and the NAO ridge building westward and squeezing the TPV southward, the NS is going to be busy and chaotic. Tracking is going to be 'fun', with models struggling to resolve wave interactions and timing between the northern and southern streams.

There is amazing consistency between the extended GEFS and EPS on the patter evolution.  Both indicate our best chance of a big storm still looks to be between Feb 22-25.  Both have the NAO reaching a peak around Feb 18-20 and then retrograding/fading a bit.  This is not to say we won't have legit threats before that window, just according to the progression that period, as the NAO relaxes and retrogrades, is when we have a very high probability, and both ensemble systems track several waves to our south during this period of interest.   Looking way out, both then recycle the same pattern in late Feb early March.  

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is amazing consistency between the extended GEFS and EPS on the patter evolution.  Both indicate our best chance of a big storm still looks to be between Feb 22-25.  Both have the NAO reaching a peak around Feb 18-20 and then retrograding/fading a bit.  This is not to say we won't have legit threats before that window, just according to the progression that period, as the NAO relaxes and retrogrades, is when we have a very high probability, and both ensemble systems track several waves to our south during this period of interest.   Looking way out, both then recycle the same pattern in late Feb early March.  

Agree. Something either side of VD is still on the table but for now the means favor north. The advertised pattern evolution supports increased chances for our region beginning around PD.

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

For reasons above my pay grade, this entire winter never had a good analog set except for the time it snowed. Even when the mean looked good at times, nothing good ever matched. Imo- this year is far less a warmer earth problem than it is just a stubborn bad winter. Most of the analogs the whole trip this year have showed that over and over. 

You can take long lead op runs that look good and still come up with a bunch of turd periods. Very frustrating but far from uncommon. We've had plenty like this in the last 80 years. 

This is just an example. I know long lead ops are the last upper air pattern to pull analogs from but even with a very good look like this... the match dates kinda suck lol

I would argue those match dates aren't bad.  There were a couple nice coastals in early March 1998 that were just a bit too warm.  It looks colder this time heading in than 1998.  That 1978 date is right after a big storm.  1958 lead to a couple big storms.  1980 a HECS missed just to our south.  1969 had a couple HECS storms that just didn't come together perfectly for us, our area they were SECS level events.  There was a MECS near the 1987 date and 1960 was right before one of our best late season runs ever.  

[Terpeast]

Looking at analog matches centered on Feb 11 seems a tad too early. I'd want to see what the matches look like centered around Feb 18th or so.