psuhoffman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 I think there are going to be multiple good threats but looking at the way the pattern is progressing I think our best chance at a MECS+ storm might be centered within a couple days either side of Feb 24th. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 It looks like Baltimore is coming in +3.3 for January, DC +2.3 and Dullus +3. Seasonals had -1 to -3. Looks like right now the same kind of deal for the first 2 weeks of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Then if you believe both extended ensemble systems the whole pattern recycles with a second deep blocking cycle and another very strong storm signal centered in early March. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Then if you believe both extended ensemble systems the whole pattern recycles with a second deep blocking cycle and another very strong storm signal centered in early March. 57-58 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think there are going to be multiple good threats but looking at the way the pattern is progressing I think our best chance at a MECS+ storm might be centered within a couple days either side of Feb 24th. I expect us to be tracking something within a weeks time. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Holy moly 14 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 16 minutes ago, Ji said: but shooting blanks the first 2 weeks of February after those tasty Feb charts from the seasonals? If the last two weeks of February into the beginning of March verify as they are modeled at the moment - you couldn't say that the seasonals were completely off base. They're used as a guide to the longwave pattern progression, no one is using them to pinpoint exact week-by-week shifts. Being off by two weeks and then getting it right would be a crazy good win for the seasonals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 46 minutes ago, Weather Will said: The snow means are horrible the next 15 days on all the ensembles. I guess we need "wave breaks" and cooling for our last gasp of winter. Hope to see an uptick by next weekend. WB 12Z EPS. Do better, man. Seriously. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Holy moly pretty scary thought---because if we dont see a big snow or two......this hobby is pretty much done 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 minute ago, Ji said: pretty scary thought---because if we dont see a big snow or two......this hobby is pretty much done Yep time to take up crocheting or something if we can't snow in that look. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 minutes ago, Ji said: pretty scary thought---because if we dont see a big snow or two......this hobby is pretty much done If the guidance is even close with the coming period Feb 15-March 15, it would be really really difficult for us to escape without at least one significant snowstorm. I am NOT saying a HECS, those take some luck even in the best patterns, but if we don't get at least one significant snowstorm I would be very surprised. I think my over under would be one MECS and one SECS storm...more would take a little luck, less would take bad luck. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 5 minutes ago, Ji said: pretty scary thought---because if we dont see a big snow or two......this hobby is pretty much done For the record the control which produced that 7 day mean I posted does snow on us 3 times. One MECS and 2 SECS level events. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If the guidance is even close with the coming period Feb 15-March 15, it would be really really difficult for us to escape without at least one significant snowstorm. I am NOT saying a HECS, those take some luck even in the best patterns, but if we don't get at least one significant snowstorm I would be very surprised. I think my over under would be one MECS and one SECS storm...more would take a little luck, less would take bad luck. Yeah, that'll be what it takes for us to beat climo by a decent margin. Add one more SECS and we'll put this as one of the better nino winters in the books. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 if this is looking this good and the blocking signal is strengthening around the middle of next week, I'm going all in on this. everything seems to be coming together 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 42 minutes ago, Ji said: 57-58 or 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: if this is looking this good and the blocking signal is strengthening around the middle of next week, I'm going all in on this. everything seems to be coming together How does the Pineapple Express about to hit West Coast set up for East Coast as we go further into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: The snow means are horrible the next 15 days on all the ensembles I guess we need "wave breaks" and cooling for our last gasp of winter. Hope to see an uptick by next weekend. WB 12Z EPS. This is the mean for the 12-15th window on the 12z GEFS, which is right at the beginning of the pattern transitioning to more favorable. This is horrible? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: . I think my over under would be one MECS and one SECS storm...more would take a little luck, less would take bad luck. That would put me in excellent position to win the snowfall contest 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 I wonder if LR models have a relative potential energy weight.. like it seems like when we are warm on the initial day or days +0-5, the LR goes crazy with cold at days 17-24. Like, warm now, is cold later, like a see-saw. Maybe not? It just seems like we have to have this 5-7 day running +departure to clear for more realistic LR model estimates to verify. Maybe because super LR output is new? I wouldn't bet against cold after Feb 14/15, but maybe it won't be as crazy as these -430dm -NAO's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If the guidance is even close with the coming period Feb 15-March 15, it would be really really difficult for us to escape without at least one significant snowstorm. I am NOT saying a HECS, those take some luck even in the best patterns, but if we don't get at least one significant snowstorm I would be very surprised. I think my over under would be one MECS and one SECS storm...more would take a little luck, less would take bad luck. I agree and I believe the greatest opportunity is Feb. 20 - March 15 based on the Euro weeklies. Some may say, well this is only 25 days. Historically, we have been buried in 15 days with several storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is the mean for the 12-15th window on the 12z GEFS, which is right at the beginning of the pattern transitioning to more favorable. This is horrible? Dude, it’s Weather Will. He’ll post a 5,327 hour map and say the snow mean is great and then the next day post a 540hr paltry map and say things are terrible. Love him or hate him, he’s family. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 GFS lol. That's like 4-5" in a very small area. Also has a bit of snow flirting with the MA beaches just beyond this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 I know there are those in this forum who think early March snow (i.e., first half of the month) is a waste, but we've had some really good cold shots and snows in the first part of that month. We've also had some epically cold periods in February (2007 and 2015 come to mind). Who cares if it's not something that would necessarily stay on the ground for a week or two. Really! If these current indications on the extended and weeklies are correct, we could well easily be tracking things not only the 2nd half or so of February, but also into March. I say bring it on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Dude, it’s Weather Will. He’ll post a 5,327 hour map and say the snow mean is great and then the next day post a 540hr paltry map and say things are terrible. Love him or hate him, he’s family. The snow mean for July 4 weekend is a disaster!! Totally sucks! Summertime HECS cancel! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS lol. That's like 4-5" in a very small area. Also has a bit of snow flirting with the MA beaches just beyond this. Lol. My mom’s gets crushed. Calling her now to tell her to stock up. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I know there are those in this forum who think early March snow (i.e., first half of the month) is a waste, but we've had some really good cold shots and snows in the first part of that month. We've also had some epically cold periods in February (2007 and 2015 come to mind). Who cares if it's not something that would necessarily stay on the ground for a week or two. Really! If these current indications on the extended and weeklies are correct, we could well easily be tracking things not only the 2nd half or so of February, but also into March. I say bring it on! I take what I can get. If there’s a chance of an April snowstorm that melts 20 minutes after it falls, I’ll take it. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Just now, stormtracker said: Dude, it’s Weather Will. He’ll post a 5,327 hour map and say the snow mean is great and then the next day post a 540hr paltry map and say things are terrible. Love him or hate him, he’s family. I sometimes worry that he won't make it. Cracked that 120 open yet? If not you have more restraint than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I think there are going to be multiple good threats but looking at the way the pattern is progressing I think our best chance at a MECS+ storm might be centered within a couple days either side of Feb 24th. So think our usual PD weekend MECS+ threshold would be too soon? (It's not scientific, but the fact it's never happened the last week of Feb is not something I wanna bet on, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Just now, CAPE said: I sometimes worry that he won't make it. Cracked that 120 open yet? If not you have more restraint than me. I’m worried about him not making it too. We gotta prop him up. The self restraint is amazing. Holding until the Super Bowl or the happy hour like 3 days before a FOLKS storm, whichever comes first. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 17 minutes ago, stormy said: I agree and I believe the greatest opportunity is Feb. 20 - March 15 based on the Euro weeklies. Some may say, well this is only 25 days. Historically, we have been buried in 15 days with several storms. We had a ~3 week period from Feb. 14-March 5 or so in 2015 that was absolutely amazing around here. And that followed a rather craptastic pattern at the end of January and into early February. Yet we had epic cold starting Valentine's Day that year along with several decent events. No HECS or anything, but wow, what a stretch of cold and snow! That February ended up at like a -10 departure on temperatures, even after a relatively warm first week or so. (ETA: And even the record-breaking winter 2009-10, the winter came in concentrated waves...we had 14 days of amazing winter from the end of January through mid-February, and maybe another week or so in December around the HECS that month). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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