brooklynwx99 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I am not sure you could draw that CMC ENS any better if you were trying to describe perfection. seriously screen saver worthy it'll look better in a few days when it has the -NAO retrograding 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Now it looks like target date for pattern change is 2/15. It was starting to move into the 12-13d yesterday, but today at 12z it's back to 13-15d, with 384hr being the best signal. Been like that for 8 days now. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Now it looks like target date for pattern change is 2/15. It was starting to move into the 12-13d yesterday, but today at 12z it's back to 13-15d, with 384hr being the best signal. Been like that for 8 days now. what are you talking about? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 There are a couple waves of interest on the 12z GEFS- one around the 12th and the next for the 15th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: what are you talking about? I said in my post it's still in the 13-day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 nothing has gotten pushed back... it's been very consistently modeled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 384hr has had a +PNA since 1/22. It's been slowly bleeding into the sooner frames, and we even have it at day-13 today, but it's been stuck in the LR. Today's 384hr has the best trough over the EC of the cycle, but we also had some pretty big changes in the Pacific toward more -PNA for the first 2 weeks of February now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: There are a couple waves of interest on the 12z GEFS- one around the 12th and the next for the 15th. I originally had this pegged as a cutter, but if we can get any frozen out of that, it’d be a big win before the best pattern comes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, mattie g said: At 384...congrats northern 1/3 of Old Mexico! That's usually about once every 3 or 4 years and mostly in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I originally had this pegged as a cutter, but if we can get any frozen out of that, it’d be a big win before the best pattern comes. As advertised lack of cold might be a problem with that one. The mid month potential might be more convoluted as the NAO builds west towards Baffin and the TPV gets squeezed south. Long way to go but it appears the legit cold comes in with/behind that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: I don’t know if I look at that and see dead… I see long shot. Seen a few folks on Twitter arguing it’s trending better. We’ve got a cou ple days to make something happen This is 8 days out. I would not say it's dead yet. If this solution is shown on Feb 4th its dead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 happy Vday 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Eps Looks like what the cmc ensembles have been advertising for a few runs now. Pretty much all on board. How that actual pattern evolves to get here we’ll find out, may have a storm threat around 12-15 if there’s good sequence/timing of waves, but all the ensembles generally get to this point now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 minutes ago, Ji said: happy Vday I can't get over the agreement between the 3 models so far out. (Mr. +PNA should be in Heaven if this verifies ) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 7 minutes ago, Heisy said: Eps Looks like what the cmc ensembles have been advertising for a few runs now. Pretty much all on board. How that actual pattern evolves to get here we’ll find out, may have a storm threat around 12-15 if there’s good sequence/timing of waves, but all the ensembles generally get to this point now . im actually getting bored of these maps. We are running out of time...we need to be chasing 3 storms before this movie ends 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Just now, Ji said: im actually getting bored of these maps. We are running out of time...we need to be chasing 3 storms before this movie ends and the fact that @Bob Chilldoes not like this mjo 8, +PNA,-NAO-AO, active STJ, polar vortex weakening pattern is a little scary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: it'll look better in a few days when it has the -NAO retrograding bump 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: bump Wow 432 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 The snow means are horrible the next 15 days on all the ensembles. I guess we need "wave breaks" and cooling for our last gasp of winter. Hope to see an uptick by next weekend. WB 12Z EPS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 wave breaking in quotes like it's some voodoo term. I can't 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: The snow means are horrible the next 15 days on all the ensembles. I guess we need "wave breaks" and cooling for our last gasp of winter. Hope to see an uptick by next weekend. WB 12Z EPS. that's only up to Feb 15. The real fun should begin then, not likely before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: The snow means are horrible the next 15 days on all the ensembles. I guess we need "wave breaks" and cooling for our last gasp of winter. Hope to see an uptick by next weekend. WB 12Z EPS. I would expect them to look horrible till the 15th. The 15th is when things should get going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I would expect them to look horrible till the 15th. The 15th is when things should get going. weather Will doing his usual doomsday thing. There isnt much else to do in Brusnwick Md 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 The point I am unsuccessfully trying to make is that between next weekend and the 15th we should have a discrete threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 i will say---if you would of showed me this chart after the September European seasonal monthlies came out....i would of been truly shocked for this time period. Not at all what i envisioned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 For example, latest WB 12Z EPS weekly control has a snow storm 19-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 I will go away after this post: there were several experts that predicted a lull. Lull was expected to end as early as the 10th. 13-15 seems to be locking in; great forecasting. Gives us a few weeks to score before the calendar catches up with us. Hopefully it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 7 minutes ago, Ji said: i will say---if you would of showed me this chart after the September European seasonal monthlies came out....i would of been truly shocked for this time period. Not at all what i envisioned Wall to wall cold and snow for a chosen two week period during the winter is just absolutely never a guarantee when you live in and around the MA region. Mod El-Nino or not, breaks and warm ups happen even in our greatest of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Just now, Alfoman said: Wall to wall cold and snow for a chosen two week period during the winter is just absolutely never a guarantee when you live in and around the MA region. Mod El-Nino or not, breaks and warm ups happen even if the greatest of years. but shooting blanks the first 2 weeks of February after those tasty Feb charts from the seasonals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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