Pittsburgh/Western PA Spring 2024

[TheClimateChanger]

It's too bad they don't take weather records downtown anymore. But if we tack on the average 2.6F increase relative to the airport from 1952-1979, then we can surmise the downtown mean would be around 50.8F on the year to date. Which is probably above the 20th century median at places like Oklahoma City and Knoxville, and well within the climate envelope of a place like Huntsville, Alabama and even "Hot-Lanta."

Rumor has it people will still be moving to the sunbelt even when it's hotter here than it ever used to be in the sunbelt.

[TimB]

6 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Either way, second place is guaranteed this year, because, even with the cooldown, the mean of the next 4 days will be somewhat above the existing average of 56.4F. So we can only go up from here - whether its one tenth or two tenths will decide whether we match 1921.

We’re well on our way. PIT has overperformed its way to a high of 75, well above anything that was forecast. So behind a decisive cold front, we’re going to have a day with an above normal low and reaching the normal high. First place is in reach.

[TimB]

On 5/28/2024 at 9:45 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

Would easily be the first seasonal warm record from the airport site. Closest previously is summer 1995, which finished 0.7F below the record hot summer (officially, 1900).

Edit: Actually spring 2012, which finished at 56.3F, 0.3F below 1921. Either way, second place is guaranteed this year, because, even with the cooldown, the mean of the next 4 days will be somewhat above the existing average of 56.4F. So we can only go up from here - whether its one tenth or two tenths will decide whether we match 1921.

Looks like we at least tie the record warmest spring. We’re at 56.6 and both today and tomorrow will average slightly above that.

2nd wettest spring behind 1901 has been clinched.

2nd warmest 1/1 through 5/31 behind only 1880.

2nd wettest 1/1 through 5/31 behind only 1890.

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TimB]

It appears our spring average temperature got to 56.7, which puts us in sole possession of first place for warmest spring ever in the threaded record.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

It appears our spring average temperature got to 56.7, which puts us in sole possession of first place for warmest spring ever in the threaded record.

Yes, warmest and second wettest meteorological spring on record.

[TimB]

The official report said 56.6, so it’s a tie for warmest. 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 6/1/2024 at 10:12 PM, TimB said:

The official report said 56.6, so it’s a tie for warmest. 

Depends on if it's sorted by averaging monthly averages or averaging daily averages. The latter is more accurate, but I think the former [i.e., averaging by monthly averages] is often superior since it mitigates the problem of missing data [which is common especially in the early years in most locations]. For example, if you are missing several days from March or June [which tend to be cooler], then averaging by days would tend to produce an exaggerated temperature for the seasonal mean since March or June is not being weighted equally since fewer data points are available. Averaging by months makes sure each month is equally weighted in its contribution. I always select monthly averaging for this reason unless there's no missing data.

In this case, it's kind of a moot point since both 1921 & 2024 have full data, so averaging by days is fine and more accurate. Although technically, 2024 did edge out 1921 by a fraction of a tenth of a degree, but with rounding the two are equal.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

On a similar note, the NWS often posts misleading graphics like this one. It claims that 1998 & 1918 were warmer in the Wheeling thread, and 1998, 1944, and 1919 were warmer in the Morgantown thread. In fact, 2024 is the warmest spring with full data. 

At Wheeling, 1918 is missing the entire month of March. The mean returned is just the average of April & May. 1998 has data for all three months, but March only has 4 days late in the month which happen to coincide with a 2012-esque heat wave showing a ridiculous 68.3F monthly mean. In this case, utilizing the March data is even more misleading if averaged by month, because the actual monthly mean was undoubtedly 20 or more degrees less than that. So it's artificially tacking on at least nearly 7F to the spring mean [dividing the surplus by 3]. Below, I sorted by daily average to mitigate this to some degree.

At Morgantown, 1998 and 1944 are missing data for the entire month of March. The averages reported are based only on April & May. 1919 is missing the entirety of both March & April. The average reported is simply the mean for May. In fact, it's 0.1F BELOW the current normal for May at Morgantown, and 4.4F cooler than May 2024. 

MGW

HLG

Undoubtedly all of these years would fall below 2024 with full data. The only comparable springs across all sites are 2012 & 1921, which in most cases are generally cooler. For context, 2024 averaged 62.6F in April & May at MGW, and 61.7F at HLG. This is well above all of the months listed without March data. Heck, the April-May average at Morgantown was even higher than the May alone average from 1919.

[TheClimateChanger]

But then again, I saw some boomers on Facebook comment that "it didn't feel that warm" to them. So maybe we ought to sort by people's feelings, instead of actual data.

[TheClimateChanger]

It will be interesting to see if this month will come in below the normal mean temperature. Two days in and it's a bit below normal, which will likely reverse over the next 3-4 days. However, both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks favor below normal temperatures. So looks like decent odds that it will be below normal on the whole through mid month. June 2023 was the last below normal month officially at KPIT. Some of the other climo stations may have managed a below normal month somewhere in that period.