TheClimateChanger Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Bridgeville is about to flood. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Looks like so much more rain to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0153 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 744 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, western Virginia, and western Maryland Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 112343Z - 120543Z Summary...A focused axis of training convection is resulting in a prolonged period of 0.25-1.00 inch/hr rates. Areas of flash flooding (locally significant) are likely to continue through 05Z. Discussion...Recent convective trends have exhibited a focused axis of convection extending from near BKW (Beckley, WV) north-northeastward to near Pittsburgh Metro. The band was aligned with strong deep layer convergence on the western side of strong, southerly 850mb flow over the Mid-Atlantic. The band was also oriented parallel to strong south-southwesterly steering flow aloft and immediate downstream of a mid-level wave providing forcing for ascent across the area. 500 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.3 inch PW values were also located within the pre-convective airmass across the region supporting the ongoing convection. The net result of the pattern was an elongated axis of 1-2 inch rainfall totals over the past 3 hours (estimated per MRMS) along with occasional spots of 1 inch/hr rates, all exceeding FFG thresholds across the area and resulting in excessive runoff (locally significant near the Pittsburgh area). The ongoing scenario will persist over the next 4-6 hours, with only a slow translation eastward of the band of convection during that timeframe. This will result in a continued risk of flash flooding across the discussion area. Although slight boundary layer cooling may occur ahead of the band, ascent/cooling aloft associated with the mid-level wave centered over Kentucky and continued warm advection ahead of the band should maintain at least 500 J/kg SBCAPE ahead of the convective band. Ongoing flash flood impacts are expected to continue through 05Z. Cook ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX... RNK... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...NERFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 42077899 41977785 41117744 39457746 37927863 36667984 36258102 37428231 38408286 39148216 40438105 41138046 41917963 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Almost tropical like efficiency with this system. Probably will end up with 3-4” for the second week in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Officially the wettest spring day on record, surpassing last Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 If we could only get this kind of training and efficiency for a snowstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Big upgrade for our area for today, as the enhanced risk has been expanded all the way into eastern Ohio. Includes a 5-10% risk of tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted April 14 Author Share Posted April 14 Absolutely perfect out there right now. Looks like our first 80 degree day of the year. Feels nice with the low dew points too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 My weather station hit 80 with dew points rising but still only 52 and pressure dropping. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Hmmmm. The activity around Canton is dissipating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted April 14 Author Share Posted April 14 The line around Slippery Rock looks vicious, but looks like Allegheny largely misses the worst as they slide south east. Thats good to me, already lost power twice today with the, don't want to see damage or more rain at this point. We just don't need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: The line around Slippery Rock looks vicious, but looks like Allegheny largely misses the worst as they slide south east. Thats good to me, already lost power twice today with the, don't want to see damage or more rain at this point. We just don't need it. Yep works for me. Rather not deal with the wind and possibly losing power. Severe weather doesn't excite me like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Interesting the way the western end of that line just died. We just seemed pretty starved for moisture which is fine after the last week and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 82/44 officially for the high & low. I had 83.8/39.9 on the home station. Looks like the storms may miss us, which would certainly be welcome with all the recent rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 Storms still back building a bit into Ohio and slowly shifting south. I think we will still get some of this moving in after 10:00. Probably not severe though. A nice light show going on to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 1 hour ago, north pgh said: Storms still back building a bit into Ohio and slowly shifting south. I think we will still get some of this moving in after 10:00. Probably not severe though. A nice light show going on to our north Looks like a good call. Mother natures firework show lighting up the sky right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Looks like a good call. Mother natures firework show lighting up the sky right now. I’m out on my deck watching. Beautiful show and nice summer breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 Man the storm that hit us last night was wild. So much lightning my room was lit up. The rain and hail was so intense and loud. If you zoom in you will see some pink to purple returns of 60-69dbz 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 Now up to third place all time for April precipitation since 1836. The record is 9.27" from 1852, which was observed at Allegheny Arsenal in present-day Lawrenceville by the U.S. Army Signal Corps. The highest total since the formation of the Weather Bureau [now National Weather Service] is 8.11" in 1901 from the downtown city office. With about two weeks left in the month, the current tally is 7.63 inches. Surprisingly, it's been quite a while (1987) since we had an April on this list (although 1998 & 2011 saw 5.00" and 5.13" respectively). Source: https://www.weather.gov/media/pbz/records/prec.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 4th year in a row that the temp has hit 82 before the halfway point of April. This had never happened in 3 consecutive years prior to this streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 On 4/11/2024 at 9:06 AM, TheClimateChanger said: Currently running 4.6F above normal for the month, with a mean temperature of 52.2F. A rather pedestrian [compared to some recent periods] 24th warmest overall in the threaded record, and 13th warmest at KPIT, for the first 10 days of April. With the warm pattern in place, I projected forward through the 17th using the official NWS forecast for KPIT [with an adjustment for tomorrow for a likely midnight high temperature] and found the month to date mean temperature is projected to increase to around 55.9F by April 17th. Should that come to fruition, it would be the 5th warmest April 1 to April 17th period in the threaded record, and second only to 2010 at KPIT. Looks like a decent shot for a top 10 warmest April unless there is a cooldown at the end of the month. This projection has worked out pretty good. Currently, PIT is at 55.1F for the MTD - up to ninth place. With today factored in, that should rise to around 55.8F, which would be good for 5th warmest for the MTD. Also, up to third place on the YTD rankings in the threaded record. A full 0.5F warmer than 2012, and 0.6F warmer than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Mesoscale Discussion 0472 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Areas affected...extreme eastern IN...much of OH...and western PA Concerning...Tornado Watch 122... Valid 171812Z - 171945Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122 continues. SUMMARY...Storms moving into northwest OH may intensify the next 1-2 hours. All severe hazards remain possible across Tornado Watch 122. A downstream watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours across eastern OH into western PA. DISCUSSION...Convection has slowly intensified into early afternoon as storms move into a somewhat more unstable airmass. Stronger heating has allowed low-level lapse rates to steepen ahead of the line of convection. This will support potential for increasing gusts. Furthermore, low-level instability remains quite large, with 0-3 km MLCAPE greater than 125 J/kg. Regional VWP data shows enlarged, and favorably curved low-level hodographs, and low-level rotation has been noted in velocity signatures via region radars. Further intensification of these cells is expected over the next couple hours across northwest into central Ohio. As convection continues eastward, a similar environment is expected to extend across parts of eastern OH into western PA. A downstream watch will likely be needed by 20z/4pm EDT. ..Leitman.. 04/17/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: This projection has worked out pretty good. Currently, PIT is at 55.1F for the MTD - up to ninth place. With today factored in, that should rise to around 55.8F, which would be good for 5th warmest for the MTD. Also, up to third place on the YTD rankings in the threaded record. A full 0.5F warmer than 2012, and 0.6F warmer than last year. If we compare this to some cities in the Upper South, you can see the last two years, this period has been about on par for what would have been deemed normal for the lower elevations of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia, and well within the limits of normal variability in a place like Knoxville, Tennessee. This is surprising to me because this is heavily weighted toward winter, which tends to be the time of the year when the south is much warmer than western Pennsylvania. In the 30-year period from 1956-1985, only three years were warmer at Charleston, West Virginia [and only 5 were warmer than the same period in 2023 at PIT]. Similar story at Roanoke, Virginia. Only 10 of 30 years had a warmer YTD than Pittsburgh in the period from 1956-1985. And last year too would have placed solidly around the median value. In the Tri-Cities area of Tennessee, only 10 of 30 years had a warmer YTD than this year at Pittsburgh. And last year would have been around the median value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Overperformed our way to a 3rd 80 at PIT today. None of the days were forecast to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 2 minutes ago, TimB said: Overperformed our way to a 3rd 80 at PIT today. None of the days were forecast to get there. This time of the year, I feel like you've got to add a good 3-5 degrees to whatever they are forecasting to account for the lack of vegetation if there's any chance of appreciable sunshine. I'm sure once we get to summer, a lot of those 90-degree forecasts will stall at 88-89 though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted April 17 Author Share Posted April 17 Might actually get nasty this evening. The extra sun probably helped the instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Not going to get lucky tonight unfortunately…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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