Burghblizz Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 5 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Will we ever see this again in our lifetimes? We’d be panicking that shit was sliding east 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 If this was 2024 we would somehow get dry slotted and Akron would get 3 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 2 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: If this was 2024 we would somehow get dry slotted and Akron would get 3 feet. Or dissolve inside of 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 These maps hit different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 1 hour ago, PghPirates27 said: These maps hit different IMHO, the 90's TWC graphics overall were sharper and less washed out than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 3 hours ago, PghPirates27 said: These maps hit different I remember looking real close to make sure the white area made it all the way to the Ohio line (in retrospect, it was understated) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Just had marble size hail blow through here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Lines of storms split and went right around central Allegheny County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, north pgh said: Lines of storms split and went right around central Allegheny County Storms are already in mid season form. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 11 hours ago, north pgh said: Lines of storms split and went right around central Allegheny County Very weird microclimate we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 On 3/13/2024 at 10:13 PM, Burghblizz said: We’d be panicking that shit was sliding east After watching that reanalysis loop we still could have used a bit of a west trend. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 So far in 2024 we have had 17 days that were 15+ degrees above normal and 16 days that were below normal by any amount. The last day that was 15+ degrees below normal was 5/3/23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 The Gfs for next Saturday is like a microcosm of this nino winter. The positive aspects are outweighed by the negative. This winter had plenty of SS vorts to provide moisture, unfortunately the tendency for NS vorts to stay north was amplified more so, preventing any phasing below our latitude. Hope this makes somewhat sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Second warmest start to the month, through yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Vernal equinox being tomorrow night, winter will "officially" close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 When will be our first below normal month? Any guesses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Also, on the topic of snowfall. Currently sixth lowest seasonal total [since 1880-1881]. Last year's total was eighth least but may drop to ninth (as shown below) if there is no additional significant snowfall this year. Limiting to snowfall records taken at one of the two airport sites (1935-1936 to present), makes it even worse. There had only been 3 years with less than 20" at either airport site (1937-1938, 1973-1974, and 1990-1991) and we are currently in danger of a second straight year with less than 20 inches. I blame @Burghblizz. He had noted we haven't had to deal with any 20" or less seasons shortly before the March 2018 storm were a lot of people were complaining about the lack of snowfall in recent winters. Of course, 2017-2018 had a crazy ending with 10.5" from the big storm and another 7.3" over the first few weeks of April. Now we've had two straight [likely], and just barely exceeded that total in 2019-2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: When will be our first below normal month? Any guesses? I’m going to go with August 2025. It’s the month that has gone the longest without being below normal (last time was 2017, which broke a streak of 18 straight above normal months), but it’s going to be a hot summer and won’t happen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 On 3/26/2024 at 3:29 PM, TimB said: I’m going to go with August 2025. It’s the month that has gone the longest without being below normal (last time was 2017, which broke a streak of 18 straight above normal months), but it’s going to be a hot summer and won’t happen this year. A slightly above average summer with below average number of 90 degree days. That's the theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 3/26/2024 at 2:35 PM, TheClimateChanger said: Also, on the topic of snowfall. Currently sixth lowest seasonal total [since 1880-1881]. Last year's total was eighth least but may drop to ninth (as shown below) if there is no additional significant snowfall this year. Limiting to snowfall records taken at one of the two airport sites (1935-1936 to present), makes it even worse. There had only been 3 years with less than 20" at either airport site (1937-1938, 1973-1974, and 1990-1991) and we are currently in danger of a second straight year with less than 20 inches. I blame @Burghblizz. He had noted we haven't had to deal with any 20" or less seasons shortly before the March 2018 storm were a lot of people were complaining about the lack of snowfall in recent winters. Of course, 2017-2018 had a crazy ending with 10.5" from the big storm and another 7.3" over the first few weeks of April. Now we've had two straight [likely], and just barely exceeded that total in 2019-2020. Haha - I did say that. For a bunch of years it was the NFL equivalent of having non-losing seasons and losing in the playoffs. Got snow, but missed in the big games (storms). My positive spin was that at least we are practically guaranteed 20”+ regardless of how bad it was. At that point, it had happened maybe 1-2 times in 40 years. The funny thing is in the last 6-7 years we’ve had a decent group of 8-12” storms. The lack of those for a while was causing a lot of whining. But obviously 3 seasons in that period have been historically low overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Flood Watch National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 148 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024 OHZ039-040-048>050-PAZ021-029-073-074-WVZ001>003-020345- /O.EXA.KPBZ.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-240403T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Allegheny- Washington-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Hancock- Brooke-Ohio- Including the cities of Canonsburg, Monessen, Lower Burrell, Malvern, Ligonier, Carrollton, Washington, Steubenville, Donegal, Murrysville, Weirton, Dover, Greensburg, Wellsburg, Coshocton, New Philadelphia, Wheeling, Follansbee, New Kensington, Latrobe, Pittsburgh Metro Area, and Cadiz 148 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio, including the following areas, Carroll, Coshocton, Harrison, Jefferson OH and Tuscarawas, Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Allegheny, Higher Elevations of Westmoreland, Washington and Westmoreland, and West Virginia, including the following areas, Brooke, Hancock and Ohio. * WHEN...Through Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday evening. Each will have the potential to produce heavy rain, with a cumulative effect evolving to create increasing potential for excessive runoff with each successive round. Total rainfall estimates through Tuesday evening will likely reach 1 to 2 inches across the Watch area, with locally higher amounts up to 3 inches possible. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People in the watch area, especially those living in areas prone to flooding, should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 11 minutes ago, north pgh said: Flood Watch National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 148 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024 OHZ039-040-048>050-PAZ021-029-073-074-WVZ001>003-020345- /O.EXA.KPBZ.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-240403T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Allegheny- Washington-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Hancock- Brooke-Ohio- Including the cities of Canonsburg, Monessen, Lower Burrell, Malvern, Ligonier, Carrollton, Washington, Steubenville, Donegal, Murrysville, Weirton, Dover, Greensburg, Wellsburg, Coshocton, New Philadelphia, Wheeling, Follansbee, New Kensington, Latrobe, Pittsburgh Metro Area, and Cadiz 148 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio, including the following areas, Carroll, Coshocton, Harrison, Jefferson OH and Tuscarawas, Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Allegheny, Higher Elevations of Westmoreland, Washington and Westmoreland, and West Virginia, including the following areas, Brooke, Hancock and Ohio. * WHEN...Through Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday evening. Each will have the potential to produce heavy rain, with a cumulative effect evolving to create increasing potential for excessive runoff with each successive round. Total rainfall estimates through Tuesday evening will likely reach 1 to 2 inches across the Watch area, with locally higher amounts up to 3 inches possible. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People in the watch area, especially those living in areas prone to flooding, should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. && Severe risk also seems to have really amped up with latest guidance. SPC sounded the alarms with their latest outlook: And PBZ introduced this to the zone forecast for Allegheny County: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Wow. Not sure I've ever seen it this high for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Wow. Not sure I've ever seen it this high for our region. Last Day 2 moderate risk for anywhere in PBZ’s domain was issued on 7/26/2014. That system ultimately produced 2 hail reports and 8 wind reports in PBZ’s area, so we dodged that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Looks like Ohio is this spring's Tornado Alley. I feel like we tend to get our worst severe weather when it's not forecasted, so maybe this will bust. Something to keep an eye on, however, as TimB noted it's been a decade since we've had a "Moderate" risk locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 36 minutes ago, jwilson said: Looks like Ohio is this spring's Tornado Alley. I feel like we tend to get our worst severe weather when it's not forecasted, so maybe this will bust. Something to keep an eye on, however, as TimB noted it's been a decade since we've had a "Moderate" risk locally. Just no hail and extreme wind damage and I'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 12 hours ago, jwilson said: Looks like Ohio is this spring's Tornado Alley. I feel like we tend to get our worst severe weather when it's not forecasted, so maybe this will bust. Something to keep an eye on, however, as TimB noted it's been a decade since we've had a "Moderate" risk locally. Yeah, it does seem like at least anecdotally I've gotten more damage from random Spring / Summer storms than these situations. Obviously not a reason to pay no mind to conditions later this afternoon though as the ingredients are there. Reading some discussions seems like the big jump in threat is due to expected recovery from this mornings storms. If that fails to materialize then that should put a cap on this, but also the chance it could expand further NE. NWS made mention of a special RAOB balloon as well this afternoon. I won't be mad if this busts though, not interested having any extra outdoor cleanup lol. A major shift has been made to the convective outlook for Tuesday afternoon/evening in collaboration with neighboring WFOs and the Storm Prediction Center. A rare Moderate Risk has been added to eastern OH and Enhanced Risk was added for western PA (including much of Allegheny County PA) for the threat for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts. What has prompted this adjustment is the potential for recovery in the wake of early-morning showers/storms in eastern OH. As a warm front lifts north towards Erie, a surge of low-lvl moisture will increase CAPE within a highly sheared environment. This combination will favor supercells within the warm sector as a strong low advances into the Ohio River Valley from the west. After 2pm, the joint probability of 40kt of 0-6km shear and 1000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE increases to 80-90% (especially for eastern OH). The probability significantly drops off northeast of Pittsburgh, where models suggest cloud coverage will remain and buoyancy will be limited. The probability of severe storms could increase farther east and north from the current most-likely outlook area if sufficient heating and moisture advance into west-central PA beyond where currently expected. A special RAOB will likely be launched Tuesday afternoon at PIT to get a sense of atmospheric changes in the wake of morning showers. Overall summary: confidence is high that strong wind shear will be available to organize storms. Destabilization in the wake of the morning showers/storms will be the potential limiting factor in storm severity Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Some decent lighting now around my house. Let's see how the atmosphere recovers after this rolls through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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