February 2024 General Discussion

[TheClimateChanger]

10 minutes ago, roardog said:

I don’t think many people comprehend how little snow has to fall in a winter for futility records around this region. I mean look how bad things have been in the UP for businesses that rely on winter, yet a place like Calumet is already well above their futility records and it’s only mid February. 

I mean this is a little suspect, no? Ends in 2000, but you get the point... snow depth trend would probably be more pronounced if there were still observations at the airport.  Somehow snow depth was higher 100+ years ago, despite snowfall being 50% of recent decades. 

If average seasonal snowfall doubled, why has mean snow depth decreased if every season? Certainly, the temperatures have warmed somewhat, but it's still mainly below freezing in Keweenaw.

Mean Snow Depth (Winter)

Mean Snow Depth (Spring)

Mean Snow Depth (Fall)

Mean Snow Depth (Annual)

[TheClimateChanger]

Same with GRR. Mean snow depth no trend (less than 0.1" increase) over POR, yet regression shows 33" increase in yearly snowfall. Of course, no change since 1950, when snowfall measurements became more standardized.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 2/14/2024 at 8:36 PM, michsnowfreak said:

What's interesting is 1930-31 and 1925-26 are on the top of Duluths snowless list. Yet 1925-26 was Detroits 3rd snowiest winter with 78.0". Must have been an interesting storm track. 1930-31 was a drought winter and bad in most places, but a March snowstorm did save face some in the southern Lakes.

Not surprised. Weather in the UP is often wildly different from the lower Great Lakes.

The high-water mark  for snow depth in the CMX station thread was the winter of 1936-37, which was the least snowy on record at Detroit.

Maximum Winter Season Snow Depth (1888-2000)

Mean Winter Season Snow Depth (1888-2000) - sorted by highest.

Some of those winters that don't look very impressive in recorded snowfall totals in the 1920s and 1930s, nevertheless resulted in very high snow depths.

It is true, however, that most of those low snowfall years were quite bad for snow depth, particularly 1925-1926, which apparently was the polar opposite of 1936-37.

[michsnowfreak]

34 minutes ago, roardog said:

I don’t think many people comprehend how little snow has to fall in a winter for futility records around this region. I mean look how bad things have been in the UP for businesses that rely on winter, yet a place like Calumet is already well above their futility records and it’s only mid February. 

The UP is a different ballgame, especially with their lake belts, terrain, etc, but for Detroit, if you REALLY want futility, everything has to go wrong, not just some things. Some examples would be a warm, wet Nino that turns cold, dry & suppressed. Or a wall to wall warm winter where the cold shots have little snow with them. Its futility for a reason. Anytime we get an undesirable winter, people talk futility. And its way worse after being spoiled rotton with a parade of record snow seasons from the mid-2000s to mid-2010s. Look at this season as a whole. December was horrible...doesnt mean Oct/Nov snow doesnt count. Yeah, winter was largely confined to 2 weeks in January. But we had a parade of snows, one after the other. It wasnt just a little 1 inch snow followed by 10 days of brutal cold. Plow drivers were putting in 100-hour weeks in that 10-day spell. That all count. Yesterdays snow didnt last a full day. It counts. And so does whatever happens the rest of the way.

[michsnowfreak]

34 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I mean this is a little suspect, no? Ends in 2000, but you get the point... snow depth trend would probably be more pronounced if there were still observations at the airport.  Somehow snow depth was higher 100+ years ago, despite snowfall being 50% of recent decades. 

If average seasonal snowfall doubled, why has mean snow depth decreased if every season? Certainly, the temperatures have warmed somewhat, but it's still mainly below freezing in Keweenaw.

Mean Snow Depth (Winter)

Mean Snow Depth (Spring)

Mean Snow Depth (Fall)

Mean Snow Depth (Annual)

Houghton has never been whats considered a 1st-order station. You can never trust any of that data. Marquette didnt become a 1st order station until 1961.

[Brian D]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I mean this is a little suspect, no? Ends in 2000, but you get the point... snow depth trend would probably be more pronounced if there were still observations at the airport.  Somehow snow depth was higher 100+ years ago, despite snowfall being 50% of recent decades. 

If average seasonal snowfall doubled, why has mean snow depth decreased if every season? Certainly, the temperatures have warmed somewhat, but it's still mainly below freezing in Keweenaw.

Mean Snow Depth (Winter)

Mean Snow Depth (Spring)

Mean Snow Depth (Fall)

Mean Snow Depth (Annual)

You need SWE data along with that analysis. That would be helpful, but don't think there's any early data with that metric. If there is, take a look at that. Early data also tends to have more missing data, as well.

 

Oh, and that stn is also threaded. Actual proximity to the lakeshore, and elevation in it's history is a big player.

[Dalfy]

St. Louis finally cashing in on a >1'' event lol. .18'' rain equivalent has fallen as of 12:51, I'd garner 2-3'' on the ground with maybe 2 hours to go. Rates have been really good [~1''/hr in the last hour] and we've had a few reports of thundersnow in south city. Temp is 31, wind steady 16 with 20 gusts. Trying to enjoy this assuming it may be the last full snow storm of the year in our parts.

[TheClimateChanger]

16 minutes ago, Dalfy said:

St. Louis finally cashing in on a >1'' event lol. .18'' rain equivalent has fallen as of 12:51, I'd garner 2-3'' on the ground with maybe 2 hours to go. Rates have been really good [~1''/hr in the last hour] and we've had a few reports of thundersnow in south city. Temp is 31, wind steady 16 with 20 gusts. Trying to enjoy this assuming it may be the last full snow storm of the year in our parts.

Incredible. Looks like it will be one of the top 10 daily snowfalls to have occurred in the last 10 years.

[Dalfy]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Incredible. Looks like it will be one of the top 10 daily snowfalls to have occurred in the last 10 years.

Yea our snow climo is not so good. Storms usually get suppressed south [N Arkansas and missouri bootleg] or miss us north [NE MO cashes]. 

[Chinook]

loop of 250mb, for the first 15 days of this 29 day month

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Feb_1_15_2024_250mb_loop.html

[weatherbo]

Measured 4.7 inches so far today on my deck railing.  Brings the total here to 16.2 inches since Tuesday night.  Temp reached 17 for a high at 2 pm and has since fallen to 13.  Squalls have been very impressive. At one point the sky looked as if a thunderstorm was moving in.  Nice mini bout of winter.

[cyclone77]

Picked up 0.3" of snow here today.  MLI had 0.6", DVN with 0.5"

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Recorded a high of 14 yesterday, below guidance for a change. Overnight we’ve fallen to 8 so far, which is one of the colder low temps in this “winter”

[weatherbo]

As expected, snow showers tapered off overnight.  Low of -2 here at the house, back up to 0 as lake clouds pass through. Should see a bit of an uptick in snow early this afternoon, another inch or two possible.  Gonna spend the day out on the ice and hopefully bring home some dinner.

[KokomoWX]

Yesterday was a surprise over performing system. Widespread 4-6" reports.  Half of my seasonal snowfall came yesterday.  Spring returns quickly with near 60 by mid week.

[fluoronium]

Scored a nice surprise 3" of snow with the system that came through yesterday. Plus, I saw the IL tornado on the 8th, so I'm pretty happy with how this month has gone so far.

[mississaugasnow]

22 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The UP is a different ballgame, especially with their lake belts, terrain, etc, but for Detroit, if you REALLY want futility, everything has to go wrong, not just some things. Some examples would be a warm, wet Nino that turns cold, dry & suppressed. Or a wall to wall warm winter where the cold shots have little snow with them. Its futility for a reason. Anytime we get an undesirable winter, people talk futility. And its way worse after being spoiled rotton with a parade of record snow seasons from the mid-2000s to mid-2010s. Look at this season as a whole. December was horrible...doesnt mean Oct/Nov snow doesnt count. Yeah, winter was largely confined to 2 weeks in January. But we had a parade of snows, one after the other. It wasnt just a little 1 inch snow followed by 10 days of brutal cold. Plow drivers were putting in 100-hour weeks in that 10-day spell. That all count. Yesterdays snow didnt last a full day. It counts. And so does whatever happens the rest of the way.

It's interesting that your futility records are so low. Toronto, Rochester, Syracuse are still well within futility records. 

[michsnowfreak]

Some popcorn snow squalls today. Been a while since we have had these type where snow varies literally every few yards. Some areas had whiteouts, others just flurries. I received 0.2" in Wyandotte. Looking at freeway webcams earlier was crazy. The SW of DTW there was nothing and NW of DTW easily 1-1.5". I drove a straight west-east road for a 5-mile stretch and saw it go from dusting to inch back to dusting in that 5 miles. Very airy fluff, settling/evaporating in the cold wind.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

It's interesting that your futility records are so low. Toronto, Rochester, Syracuse are still well within futility records. 

One of the "fortunate" products of a slightly warmer winter climate has been an increase in precip and snowfall. When I look at the top 10 least snowy winters for Detroit, 5 of them were terrible, mild non-winters almost everywhere, but the other 5 can be blamed on terrible luck and the warm & wet to cold, dry & suppressed pattern. 

[Cary67]

This winter should enhance this map nicely.

[michsnowfreak]

22 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

This winter should enhance this map nicely.

That is only thru mid-Feb last year, but its easily overdone in all of southern MI.

Flint averages 52.0”
2019-20: 53.7”
2020-21: 48.6”
2021-22: 60.5”
2022-23: 46.5”
4-year cumulative +1.3”

Detroit averages 45.0”
2019-20: 43.7”
2020-21: 44.9”
2021-22: 47.1”
2022-23: 37.1”
4-year cumulative -7.2”

Grand Rapids averages 77.2”
2019-20: 53.5”
2020-21: 46.1”
2021-22: 71.0”
2022-23: 110.7”
4-year cumulative -27.5”

[weatherbo]

Didn't see much in the way of snow today only a brief period of light snow out on the lake and just a dusting fell here at home.  Did however catch two nice trout which I'll have with some buttered rice and broccoli.

Lake had 9" of ice and about a foot of snow on it.  High of 21 but I was a toasty 60 degrees.  Life is good. 

[Cary67]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

That is only thru mid-Feb last year, but its easily overdone in all of southern MI.

Flint averages 52.0”
2019-20: 53.7”
2020-21: 48.6”
2021-22: 60.5”
2022-23: 46.5”
4-year cumulative +1.3”

Detroit averages 45.0”
2019-20: 43.7”
2020-21: 44.9”
2021-22: 47.1”
2022-23: 37.1”
4-year cumulative -7.2”

Grand Rapids averages 77.2”
2019-20: 53.5”
2020-21: 46.1”
2021-22: 71.0”
2022-23: 110.7”
4-year cumulative 

It seems accurate for my area but maybe not so much for others. Have to think this winter will only further the departures shown in a lot of the midwest that are lagging in snowfall over the last five winters.

[beavis1729]

You’re all measuring “futility” wrong.
 

Instead of total snowfall, try looking at SDDs, or average temperature, or # of days with snow cover, or # of days with the high temperature below freezing.

Those are much more important metrics when determining the grade of a winter. If a 6” snowfall occurs and then melts in a day, it doesn’t really do much. But if a 6” snowfall occurs at the end of November that helps to usher in cold temps and snow cover through the end of December, it makes the winter a lot better. 

[IWXwx]

[TheClimateChanger]

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

That is only thru mid-Feb last year, but its easily overdone in all of southern MI.

Flint averages 52.0”
2019-20: 53.7”
2020-21: 48.6”
2021-22: 60.5”
2022-23: 46.5”
4-year cumulative +1.3”

Detroit averages 45.0”
2019-20: 43.7”
2020-21: 44.9”
2021-22: 47.1”
2022-23: 37.1”
4-year cumulative -7.2”

Grand Rapids averages 77.2”
2019-20: 53.5”
2020-21: 46.1”
2021-22: 71.0”
2022-23: 110.7”
4-year cumulative -27.5”

Interesting. Using 1981-2010 normals for winter of 2019-2020, and 1991-2020 normals for all other years [including retroactively applying them to the entire winter of 2020-2021], with to date values used for 2023-2024, I computed the following running 5-year cumulative deficits for CLE's CWA:

Cleveland: -122.6" [181.2" observed versus 303.8" normal]

Mansfield: -120.3" [110.5" observed versus 230.8" normal]

Akron-Canton: -59.3" [163.1" observed versus 222.4" normal]

Toledo: -55.5" [120.3" observed versus 175.8" normal]

Youngstown: -98.6" [216.4" observed versus 315.0" normal]

Erie: -226.3" [267.6" observed versus 493.9" normal]

Looks like by the end of the winter, the 5-year deficit should range from 5-10 feet below normal areawide.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. Using 1981-2010 normals for winter of 2019-2020, and 1991-2020 normals for all other years [including retroactively applying them to the entire winter of 2020-2021], with to date values used for 2023-2024, I computed the following running 5-year cumulative deficits for CLE's CWA:

Cleveland: -122.6" [181.2" observed versus 303.8" normal]

Mansfield: -120.3" [110.5" observed versus 230.8" normal]

Akron-Canton: -59.3" [163.1" observed versus 222.4" normal]

Toledo: -55.5" [120.3" observed versus 175.8" normal]

Youngstown: -98.6" [216.4" observed versus 315.0" normal]

Erie: -226.3" [267.6" observed versus 493.9" normal]

Looks like by the end of the winter, the 5-year deficit should range from 5-10 feet below normal areawide.

As I've noted before, the disparity in snowfall the past several winters between SE Michigan & NW Ohio has been greater than is usual. That's just going by a lot of visuals many storms, another thing is Toledo's measurements are taken well south and West of the actual city, so it's probably even worse than the city itself the past several years. It seems that's usually the case in the real mild winters. The difference in colder winters is much less and every once in a while Toledo can even beat Detroit.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, Cary67 said:

It seems accurate for my area but maybe not so much for others. Have to think this winter will only further the departures shown in a lot of the midwest that are lagging in snowfall over the last five winters.

2019-20 thru 2021-22 came out as close to average as you can get here. Last winter was below average but nothing crazy. This year certainly seems ripe for a much larger negative departure but again, I hate discussing stuff like this in a matter of fact way considering we have 2 more months that we can get snowfall.

 

Some lean snowfall years were practically a given. I would write the script a lot differently. Personally, I'd prefer a cold and dry winter if we're gonna do low snowfall (then maybe we'll have good snowcover). But most areas racked up such an excess of snow from the 2000s to mid-2010s that it would be an unrealistic dream to have that continue, and one would expect the 30-year rise in avg snowfall to level back off a bit.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

You’re all measuring “futility” wrong.
 

Instead of total snowfall, try looking at SDDs, or average temperature, or # of days with snow cover, or # of days with the high temperature below freezing.

Those are much more important metrics when determining the grade of a winter. If a 6” snowfall occurs and then melts in a day, it doesn’t really do much. But if a 6” snowfall occurs at the end of November that helps to usher in cold temps and snow cover through the end of December, it makes the winter a lot better. 

Actually, I do use that when I give my unofficial grade here. But there's nothing wrong with discussing the snowy and not snowy seasons too.

[michsnowfreak]

Sunset pic from today. Brisk wind too. Current wind chill is 0°. 

 

The weenie in me just realized something. After a stretch unlike anything in the climate record, repeatedly toppling heavy snow records in February like dominoes, this is now 2 very lean Februarys in a row. Shows that things always try to even out some. This is good news for a reversal of our dingy December trend