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February 2024 General Discussion


Spartman
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There was a lot of talk on here and other places last fall about how this strong/super Nino would be different due to where the greatest forcing was, how the MEI wasn't in strong Nino territory, etc. However, when February ends, the winter temp anomalies over the US are going to look exactly like a strong/super Nino. 

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There was a lot of talk on here and other places last fall about how this strong/super Nino would be different due to where the greatest forcing was, how the MEI wasn't in strong Nino territory, etc. However, when February ends, the winter temp anomalies over the US are going to look exactly like a strong/super Nino. 
We didn't bet against the warmth here for that reason. I think the biggest difference vs. expectations has been the precipitation being above average due to December and January being active.

That might be due to the influence of the -PDO causing more periods of La Niña like conditions with a -PNA. Without that, we probably don't have the very active stretch in January and no shot of getting near normal snow at our climate sites (ORD and RFD), which is still doable because of the solidly above normal snowfall January.


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13 hours ago, fluoronium said:

Can't forget January 3rd in IL and January 16th in IA just last year either.

Models certainly have grabbed my interest for Thursday, although dews look pretty marginal. It's too bad about the gulf getting swept right before this.

RRFS actually holding serve on subsequent runs. Marginal risk introduced.

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A bit of rain in the offing starting later today with some light snow on the back side. Looks like 0.25-0.50" expected. Take what we can get. Precip needed no matter rn or sn. Then temps cool down to seasonably mild conditions. Been a warm start to the month. Very mellow wx wise. 

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22 hours ago, Chambana said:

With 0% chance now of sustaining a snowpack and the extended looking seasonable and dry, give me an early spring. This two week winter was not one to remember. 

Been in this mindset since mid Jan

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Unbelievable SCORCHING start to the month. The average high at MSP has been more than 4F above any other year over this same 7-day period, and DSM has been nearly 2F above any prior year. Chicago has its warmest first 7 days of February since 1882! Expect eastern sections to climb over the next few days. Many places could see their warmest first 10 days of February on record by average high temperature.

Here are some rankings for average high temperature over the first 7 days of February:

Minneapolis/St. Paul (1st)

image.png.0a6ec55a27acd9b43514445d48520b0d.png

Chicago (2nd)

image.png.75d0fae225ef7a57087cb5719c7498ea.png

Green Bay (2nd)

image.png.b86196a8290c67bc94949c6d07b2e88b.png

Des Moines (1st)

image.png.4d229063c33b1c6f52660c4af7983996.png

Indianapolis (5th)

image.png.8b583529a57e1c707af52271d214564a.png

International Falls (2nd)

image.png.23359980cc656580be4a3c0fede5cca1.png

LaCrosse, WI (1st)

image.png.7f63d819ff808fb3c97c568aef4181c6.png

Milwaukee (5th)

image.png.096a8f39a8ba3cb5c313b564d8f13cad.png

Toledo, OH (5th)

image.png.b5a22795898717480e3d5434ea442170.png

Detroit (7th)

image.png.65e853f339004b4714d8f14833a427b6.png

 

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4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Unbelievable SCORCHING start to the month. The average high at MSP has been more than 4F above any other year over this same 7-day period, and DSM has been nearly 2F above any prior year. Chicago has its warmest first 7 days of February since 1882! Expect eastern sections to climb over the next few days. Many places could see their warmest first 10 days of February on record by average high temperature.

Here are some rankings for average high temperature over the first 7 days of February:

Minneapolis/St. Paul (1st)

image.png.0a6ec55a27acd9b43514445d48520b0d.png

Chicago (2nd)

image.png.75d0fae225ef7a57087cb5719c7498ea.png

Green Bay (2nd)

image.png.b86196a8290c67bc94949c6d07b2e88b.png

Des Moines (1st)

image.png.4d229063c33b1c6f52660c4af7983996.png

Indianapolis (5th)

image.png.8b583529a57e1c707af52271d214564a.png

International Falls (2nd)

image.png.23359980cc656580be4a3c0fede5cca1.png

LaCrosse, WI (1st)

image.png.7f63d819ff808fb3c97c568aef4181c6.png

Milwaukee (5th)

image.png.096a8f39a8ba3cb5c313b564d8f13cad.png

Toledo, OH (5th)

image.png.b5a22795898717480e3d5434ea442170.png

Detroit (7th)

image.png.65e853f339004b4714d8f14833a427b6.png

 

Honorable mention shout out to LSE. More than a degree over second place (1878), which itself is nearly SIX degrees warmer than 3rd place.

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Although it will most likely end up being a very warm month area wide, the colder air coming in the second half of the month will knock it down some. It’s not a sure bet that it’ll end up the warmest Feb on record at any given location by any means. 

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4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Unbelievable SCORCHING start to the month. The average high at MSP has been more than 4F above any other year over this same 7-day period, and DSM has been nearly 2F above any prior year. Chicago has its warmest first 7 days of February since 1882! Expect eastern sections to climb over the next few days. Many places could see their warmest first 10 days of February on record by average high temperature.

Here are some rankings for average high temperature over the first 7 days of February:

Minneapolis/St. Paul (1st)

image.png.0a6ec55a27acd9b43514445d48520b0d.png

Chicago (2nd)

image.png.75d0fae225ef7a57087cb5719c7498ea.png

Green Bay (2nd)

image.png.b86196a8290c67bc94949c6d07b2e88b.png

Des Moines (1st)

image.png.4d229063c33b1c6f52660c4af7983996.png

Indianapolis (5th)

image.png.8b583529a57e1c707af52271d214564a.png

International Falls (2nd)

image.png.23359980cc656580be4a3c0fede5cca1.png

LaCrosse, WI (1st)

image.png.7f63d819ff808fb3c97c568aef4181c6.png

Milwaukee (5th)

image.png.096a8f39a8ba3cb5c313b564d8f13cad.png

Toledo, OH (5th)

image.png.b5a22795898717480e3d5434ea442170.png

Detroit (7th)

image.png.65e853f339004b4714d8f14833a427b6.png

 

I-Falls record isn't that good. Pretty short. I looked at this and was rather bummed to see how much data is missing prior to 1948.

I-Falls record.gif

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5 hours ago, roardog said:

Although it will most likely end up being a very warm month area wide, the colder air coming in the second half of the month will knock it down some. It’s not a sure bet that it’ll end up the warmest Feb on record at any given location by any means. 

Knowing by early Fall that the nino was pretty much a sure bet to be strong, it was a guarantee that winter in the overall mean would be mild here. That's literally how every single strong el nino winter on record has gone without exception. So I kind of was prepared for an overall stinker winter but I was hoping that we would get a few good spells and good storms. Those few weeks in january definitely exceeded my expectations for a strong el nino, but on the other hand the rest of the winter is kind of even worse than I imagined, especially farther north.

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