cyclone77 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 MSP now has ~48" less snow than this time last year. Talk about going from one extreme to the other, wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: might as torch Not CAD but SAD( seasonable and dry) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 With 0% chance now of sustaining a snowpack and the extended looking seasonable and dry, give me an early spring. This two week winter was not one to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 There was a lot of talk on here and other places last fall about how this strong/super Nino would be different due to where the greatest forcing was, how the MEI wasn't in strong Nino territory, etc. However, when February ends, the winter temp anomalies over the US are going to look exactly like a strong/super Nino. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 There was a lot of talk on here and other places last fall about how this strong/super Nino would be different due to where the greatest forcing was, how the MEI wasn't in strong Nino territory, etc. However, when February ends, the winter temp anomalies over the US are going to look exactly like a strong/super Nino. We didn't bet against the warmth here for that reason. I think the biggest difference vs. expectations has been the precipitation being above average due to December and January being active.That might be due to the influence of the -PDO causing more periods of La Niña like conditions with a -PNA. Without that, we probably don't have the very active stretch in January and no shot of getting near normal snow at our climate sites (ORD and RFD), which is still doable because of the solidly above normal snowfall January. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 13 hours ago, fluoronium said: Can't forget January 3rd in IL and January 16th in IA just last year either. Models certainly have grabbed my interest for Thursday, although dews look pretty marginal. It's too bad about the gulf getting swept right before this. RRFS actually holding serve on subsequent runs. Marginal risk introduced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Prelim data in, and a warmer Jan driven by the stronger anoms in the N sub is in the books. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 A bit of rain in the offing starting later today with some light snow on the back side. Looks like 0.25-0.50" expected. Take what we can get. Precip needed no matter rn or sn. Then temps cool down to seasonably mild conditions. Been a warm start to the month. Very mellow wx wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Seagulls were soaking up the sun and going for rides on ice flows in the Detroit River today. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Going to need cross polar flow to get any real cold air here. Without that, there is no cold air source. Maybe that’s what the GFS is struggling with.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 22 hours ago, Chambana said: With 0% chance now of sustaining a snowpack and the extended looking seasonable and dry, give me an early spring. This two week winter was not one to remember. Been in this mindset since mid Jan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, King James said: Been in this mindset since mid Jan we're positioned for a brutal spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Unbelievable SCORCHING start to the month. The average high at MSP has been more than 4F above any other year over this same 7-day period, and DSM has been nearly 2F above any prior year. Chicago has its warmest first 7 days of February since 1882! Expect eastern sections to climb over the next few days. Many places could see their warmest first 10 days of February on record by average high temperature. Here are some rankings for average high temperature over the first 7 days of February: Minneapolis/St. Paul (1st) Chicago (2nd) Green Bay (2nd) Des Moines (1st) Indianapolis (5th) International Falls (2nd) LaCrosse, WI (1st) Milwaukee (5th) Toledo, OH (5th) Detroit (7th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Finally saw some precipitation. 0.12” of rain this morning, just about doubling our total for the year to 0.25” Also saw a pair of trumpeter swans looking for open water on the still frozen lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Unbelievable SCORCHING start to the month. The average high at MSP has been more than 4F above any other year over this same 7-day period, and DSM has been nearly 2F above any prior year. Chicago has its warmest first 7 days of February since 1882! Expect eastern sections to climb over the next few days. Many places could see their warmest first 10 days of February on record by average high temperature. Here are some rankings for average high temperature over the first 7 days of February: Minneapolis/St. Paul (1st) Chicago (2nd) Green Bay (2nd) Des Moines (1st) Indianapolis (5th) International Falls (2nd) LaCrosse, WI (1st) Milwaukee (5th) Toledo, OH (5th) Detroit (7th) Honorable mention shout out to LSE. More than a degree over second place (1878), which itself is nearly SIX degrees warmer than 3rd place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 At MSP, this is the warm weather equivalent to 1895, which at -11.7F is the coldest by 3.4F (second place: 1936, -8.3F). Warmest First 7 Days of February Coldest First 7 Days of February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Yeah yeah cromartie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 So nice outside right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Although it will most likely end up being a very warm month area wide, the colder air coming in the second half of the month will knock it down some. It’s not a sure bet that it’ll end up the warmest Feb on record at any given location by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 If I didn’t know any better I’d think it was a warm November day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just went through a MJO well into phase 6-7, strong +NAO & strong +AO. Highly predicable warm start to the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Unbelievable SCORCHING start to the month. The average high at MSP has been more than 4F above any other year over this same 7-day period, and DSM has been nearly 2F above any prior year. Chicago has its warmest first 7 days of February since 1882! Expect eastern sections to climb over the next few days. Many places could see their warmest first 10 days of February on record by average high temperature. Here are some rankings for average high temperature over the first 7 days of February: Minneapolis/St. Paul (1st) Chicago (2nd) Green Bay (2nd) Des Moines (1st) Indianapolis (5th) International Falls (2nd) LaCrosse, WI (1st) Milwaukee (5th) Toledo, OH (5th) Detroit (7th) I-Falls record isn't that good. Pretty short. I looked at this and was rather bummed to see how much data is missing prior to 1948. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Nice looking meso low moving through S MN with a band of rain, and maybe thunder. Looks like its heading in my direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 It is 65º here and I just heard a rumble of thunder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 5 hours ago, roardog said: Although it will most likely end up being a very warm month area wide, the colder air coming in the second half of the month will knock it down some. It’s not a sure bet that it’ll end up the warmest Feb on record at any given location by any means. Knowing by early Fall that the nino was pretty much a sure bet to be strong, it was a guarantee that winter in the overall mean would be mild here. That's literally how every single strong el nino winter on record has gone without exception. So I kind of was prepared for an overall stinker winter but I was hoping that we would get a few good spells and good storms. Those few weeks in january definitely exceeded my expectations for a strong el nino, but on the other hand the rest of the winter is kind of even worse than I imagined, especially farther north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Not to interrupt your winter weather but I now have a tornado warning. In February, this seems contrary to the proper order of things. Albany, WI, to be precise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 New record high at MLI today with 67 degrees, DVN hit 66. Hit 63 here. Spring fever in the air with towering cu building up and temps in the 60s. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Might as well go straight to April 1st pls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Might as well go straight to April 1st pls Well, it absolutely feels like April 1 here in Chicago. 54° and thunderstorms actually probably more like May 1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Tornadoes in Wisconsin. Can’t make this stuff up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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