February 2024 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ...

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

Deadline is 06z Feb 1st. (late Wednesday evening in EST) 

 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

  1.5        1.2       1.4          1.4        0.3       2.1         1.6       1.1       -0.4

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

1.0        1.0       0.5          0.0        1.0      1.5        1.0        1.5      0.0

[rainsucks]

DCA: +4.0

NYC: +4.3

BOS: +4.5

ORD: +6.5

ATL: 0.0

IAH: +1.9

DEN: +1.6

PHX: -0.5

SEA: +0.8

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

1.5        2.0         2.2        2.8        0.8      1.6       2.0        1.5        0.5

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

  1.4        1.6      1.5          4.5       -0.1      0.6        3.0       0.0       3.0

[Rhino16]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 
 

-1.0 _ -1.5 _ -0.8 __ 0.5 _ -1.2 _ -0.1 __ 0.1 _ -0.2 _ 0.3

[bkviking]

DCA: +1.2

NYC: +1.2

BOS: +1.0

ORD: +0.9

ATL: +0.4

IAH: +1.0

DEN: +2.3

PHX: +1.6

SEA: +1.2

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -0.2

NYC:  +0.6

BOS:  +0.8

ORD: +1.2

ATL: -0.9

IAH: -0.3

DEN: +0.6

PHX: -1.1

SEA:  +0.5

[Tom]

DCA: +0.6

NYC: +0.8

BOS: +1.1

ORD: +1.2

ATL:  -0.6

IAH:  -0.3

DEN: +0.7

PHX: +0.6

SEA: +1.1

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

 0.3        1.9       1.0          3.5       0.0      1.8         0.8       -1.3      -0.2

[Stormchaserchuck1]

DCA 0.0 NYC 0.0 BOS 0.0 ORD +3.0 ATL -2.3 IAH -1.8 DEN +2.0 PHX +1.0 SEA +2.5

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

+1.4      +1.5      +1.8      +5       -.5       -1       +1.9       -1.3       +2

Going to a go a little more extreme than I typically do in a few locations and see how it fairs.

[Roger Smith]

-1.5 _ -1.7 _ -1.7 __ -1.3 _ -2.0 _ -1.5 __ +0.9 _ +1.2 _ +2.0

[Roger Smith]

 

Table of forecasts for February 2024

 

__FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

rainsucks ________________________ +4.0 _ +4.3 _+4.5 __ +6.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.9 __ +1.6 _ -0.5 _ +0.8

RJay _____ (-10%) ________________ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +3.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ +3.0 __0.0 _ +2.0

wxallannj ________________________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 __ +2.8 _ +0.8 _ +1.6 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.5

hudsonvalley21 __________________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 __ +1.4 _ +0.3 _ +2.1 ___ +1.6 _ +1.1 _ -0.4 

DonSutherland1 _________________ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.5 __ +4.5 _ -0.1 _ +0.6 ___ +3.0 __ 0.0 _ +3.0

so_whats_happening ____________ +1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +5.0 _ -0.5 _ -1.0 ___ +1.9 _ -1.3 _ +2.0

BKViking _________________________+1.2 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.4 _ +1.0 ___ +2.3 _ +1.6 _ +1.2

___ Consensus __________________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +2.1 __ 0.0 _ +0.3 ___+1.6 _ +0.3 _+1.0

Scotty Lightning _________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0

Tom ______________________________+0.6 _ +0.8 _ +1.1 ___ +1.2 _ -0.6 _ -0.3 ___ +0.7 _ +0.6 _ +1.1

 RodneyS ________________________ +0.3 _ +1.9 _ +1.0 __ +3.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.8 ___ +0.8 _ -1.3 _ -0.2 

Stormchaser Chuck _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ +3.0 _ -2.3 _ -1.8 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5

___Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

wxdude64 ________________________-0.2 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 __ +1.2 _ -0.9 _ -0.3 ___ +0.6 _ -1.1 _ +0.5

Rhino16 ___________________________-1.0 __ -1.5 _ -0.8 __ +0.5 _ -1.2 _ -0.1 ___ +0.1 _ -0.2 _ +0.3

Roger Smith ______________________ -1.5 __ -1.7 __-1.7 ___ -1.3 _ -2.0 _ -1.5 ___ +0.9 _ +1.2 _ +2.0  

 

___ Persistence __ (Jan 2024) _____+2.3 _ +3.3 _ +3.2 __ +1.1 _ -0.5 _ -3.0 __ -3.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.0

(differential of persistence and consensus is 370 points)

________________________________

warmest and coldest forecasts color coded, Normal is colder than all forecasts for DEN

Consensus of 14 forecasts is average of 7th and 8th ranked (not incl Normal). 

[Rjay]

DCA: +2.0

 

NYC: +2.0

 

BOS: +2.0

 

ORD: +3.0

 

ATL: 0.0

 

IAH: 0.0

 

DEN: +3.0

 

PHX: 0.0

 

SEA: +2.0

[Roger Smith]

RJay, I saw your post in the NYC banter thread, and I see the above forecast. As you know, I did try to alert you to the late forecast situation. I will ask the gang here how much leniency I could show == as you know, I don't want to be punitive in a fun contest, especially with a regular entrant, but I can't accept a forecast without any late penalty during seriously late time periods (I have looked the other way for just about everybody here once or twice on 1st afternoon/evening and gone very lenient on 2nd). So hang in there, I will see what we can do about this one. Part of my decision would be based on how much advantage could you have gained by looking at charts on 3rd and posting the above, having not looked yet, I don't know how different your forecast is from others. (okay now I looked, it's fairly close to consensus ... and I don't believe guidance has changed a lot since I looked at it on Jan 31st)

By the way, still cannot send you private message, tried just now. I am going to suggest 10% if anyone wants to comment on that send me a p.m. 

[Roger Smith]

_ Tracking anomalies ...

___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

__ (anom Feb 1-14) ______ +6.4 _ +7.1 _ +6.2 __+12.1 _ +5.7 _ +4.6 __ +5.1 _ -2.3 _ +0.9

__ (p anom Feb 29) ______ +2.5 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +6.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __+3.0 _ -1.0 _ +1.5

___ (anom Feb) ___________+4.4 _ +4.2 _ +3.4 _ +10.7_ +4.6 _ +4.2 __+4.9 _ +1.5 _ +0.3

 

___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

Snowfall to date ___________ 8.0 __ 7.5 __ 9.7 ____ 21.2 _ 22.6 _ 59.6 ___ 29.1 _ 0.0 _ 36.2

 

[Roger Smith]

 

Final scoring for February 2024

 

 

__FORECASTER __________________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west___TOTALS

 

rainsucks ________________________ 92 _ 98 _ 78 __ 268__ 61 _ 44 _ 56 __ 161 _ 429 _ 34 _ 60 _ 90 __184 ____ 613

wxallannj _________________________42 _ 56 _ 76 __ 174 __ 26 _ 56 _ 50 __ 132 _ 306 _ 52 _100 _ 96 __248 ____ 554

hudsonvalley21 __________________ 42 _ 40 _ 60 __ 142 __ 18 _ 48 _ 60 __ 126 _ 268 _ 34 _ 92 _ 86 __ 212 ____ 480

BKViking _________________________36 _ 40 _ 52 __ 128 __ 08 _ 52 _ 38 __ 098 __226 _ 48 _ 98 _ 82 __ 228 ____ 454

DonSutherland1 _________________ 40 _ 48 _ 62 __ 150 __ 42 _ 42 _ 30 __ 114 _ 264 _  62 _ 70 _ 46 __ 178 ____ 442

Scotty Lightning _________________ 32 _ 36 _ 42 __ 110 __ 00 _ 60 _ 48 __ 108 _ 218 __ 22 _100_ 94 __ 216 ____ 434

___ Consensus __________________34 _ 40 _ 54 __ 128 __ 20 _ 44 _ 24 __ 108 _ 236 _ 34 _ 76 _ 86 __ 196 ____ 432

 

RJay _____________________________ 52 _ 56 _ 72 __ 180 __ 28 _ 44 _ 18 __ 090 _ 270 _ 62 _ 70 _ 66 __ 198 _(468)

RJay _____ (-10%) ________________ 47 _ 50 _ 65 __ 162 __ 25 _ 40 _ 16 __ 081 _ 243 _  56 _ 63 _ 59 __ 178 ____ 421

RodneyS _________________________ 18 _ 54 _ 52 __ 124 __ 33 _ 44 _ 44 __ 121 _ 245 __ 18 _ 44 _ 90 __ 152 ____ 397

so_whats_happening ____________ 40 _ 46 _ 68 __ 154 __ 47 _ 34 _ 00 __ 081 _ 235 _ 40 _ 44 _ 66 __ 150 ____ 385

Tom ______________________________ 24 _ 32 _ 54 __ 110 __ 12 __ 32 _ 12 __ 056 _ 166 _ 16 _ 82 _ 84 __ 182 ____ 348

___Normal _______________________ 12 _ 16 _ 32 __ 060 __ 00 _ 44 _ 18 __ 062 _ 122 _ 02 _ 70 _ 94 __166 ____ 288

wxdude64 ________________________ 08 _ 28 _ 40 __ 076 __ 12 _ 26 _ 12 __ 050 _ 126 _ 14 _ 48 _ 96 __ 158 ____ 284

Stormchaser Chuck ______________ 12 __16 _ 32 __ 060 __ 28 _ 00 _ 00 __ 028 _ 088 _ 42 _ 90 _ 56 __ 188 ____ 276

Rhino16 ___________________________ 00 _ 00 _ 16 __ 016 __ 05 _ 20 _ 16 __ 041 _ 057 _ 04 _ 66 _100__ 170 ____ 227

Roger Smith _______________________00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 05 _ 00__ 005 _ 005 _ 20 _ 94 _ 66 __ 180 ____ 185

 

___ Persistence __ (Jan 2024) _____ 58 _ 78 _ 96 __ 232 __ 10 _ 34 _ 00 __ 044 _ 276 _ 00 _ 50 _ 74 __ 124 ____ 400

===================================

 

Extreme forecast report

DCA, NYC, BOS _ three wins for Rainsucks with highest forecasts. 

ORD _ Also a win for Rainsucks with highest forecast.

ATL _ A win for Scotty L with highest forecast.

IAH _ A win for hudsonvalley21 with highest forecast.

DEN _ A win for DonSutherland1 with highest forecast.

PHX _ A loss for BKViking and a win wxallannj and Scotty L with next highest forecasts. 

SEA _ Did not qualify as an extreme forecast.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Man Roger tough luck. 

[wxdude64]

Posting for March, just in case I can't 'computer' in a couple days lol

IF I can, may update before cutoff. Thanks

DCA:  +0.8

NYC:  +1.4

BOS:  +1.7

ORD:  +0.9

ATL: -0.4

IAH: -0.5

DEN:  -0.3

PHX: -0.8

SEA: +1.6

[Roger Smith]

I will open March contest now, and will remember the above forecast is posted if I don't see an update.

 

[Roger Smith]

=== === .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Feb 2024 ==== .......... === ===

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL

 

wxallannj _______________120 _118 _146 __ 384 __ 94 _142 _ 66 __ 302 _ 686 __ 112 _176 _186 __474 _____1160

rainsucks _______________184 _194 _178__ 556 __103 _104 _ 56 __ 263 _ 819 __ 34 _110 _148 __ 292 _____ 1111

RodneyS ________________ 68 _108 _120 __ 296 __129 _120 _ 94 __ 343 _ 639 __110 _144 _178 __432 ____ 1071

so_whats_happening ___ 122 _112 _138 __ 372 __ 99 _128 _ 60 __ 287 _ 659 __ 94 _128 _162 __ 384 ____ 1043 

DonSutherland1 _________116 _110 _130 __ 356 __120 _134 _ 74 __ 328 _ 684 __ 98 _158 _102 __ 358 _____1042

___ Consensus _________ 112 _100_122 __ 334 __120_138 _ 64 __322 _ 656 __ 56 _158 _158 __ 372 _____1028

hudsonvalley21 _________126 _ 98 _124 __ 348 __104 _126 _ 78 __ 308 _ 656 __ 38 _132 _182 __ 352 _____1008

BKViking ________________130 _116 _136 __ 382 __ 86 _126 _ 52 __ 264 _ 646 ___58 _158 _138 __ 354 _____1000

RJay ____________________ 131 _114 _131 __ 376 __ 97 _ 110 _ 16 __ 223 _ 599 __ 76 _133 _119 __ 328 ____927 (974)*

wxdude64 _______________54 _ 66 _ 92 __ 212 __ 112_ 122 _ 74 __ 308 _ 520 __ 70 _130 _172 __ 372 _____ 892

Scotty Lightning _________96 _ 60 _ 58 __ 214 __ 58 _130 _ 68 __ 256 _ 470 __ 42 _160 _184 __ 386 _____ 856

Normal __________________ 66 _ 50 _ 68 __ 184 __ 78 _134 _ 58 __ 270 _ 454 __ 32 _150 _174 __ 356 _____ 810

Stormchaser Chuck _____ 68 _ 98 _128 __ 294 __110 _ 00 _ 00 __ 110 _ 404 __ 62 _190 _136 __ 388 _____ 792

Rhino16 __________________50 _ 22 _ 36 __ 108 __103 _118 _ 56 __ 277 _ 385 __ 48 _158 _156 __ 362 _____ 747

Tom _____________________62 _ 44 _ 68 __ 174 __ 46 _ 104 _ 50 __ 200 _ 374 __ 42 _160 _152 __ 354 _____ 728

Roger Smith _____________44 _ 24 _ 32 __ 100 __ 98 _ 95 __ 22 __ 215 _ 315 __ 20 __ 98 _ 66 __ 184 _____ 499

* (note: tracking RJay raw score before Feb late penalty of 47 pts ... at current scoring, would not affect ranks)

Persistence _____________124 _134 _158 __ 416 __ 10 _ 72 _ 02 __ 084 _ 500 __ 00 _ 50 _ 84 __ 134 _____ 634

-----------------------------------

 

Best forecasts

 

* tied wins (one per * ) 

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL 

wxallannj ________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 0 

rainsucks ________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb 

RodneyS ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan

so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 

DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 

___ Consensus _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 

hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 

BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 

RJay _____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ______ 0 

wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 

Scotty Lightning _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 

Normal __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 

Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 _____ 0 

Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ______ 0 

Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0  

Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 

 

 

EXTREmE  FORECAST  REPORT 

so far, a total of 12 qualified (ten for warmest, two for coldest) ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0. 

* tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col.

FORECASTER ________________ Jan _ Feb ____ TOTAL __ adj for ties

rainsucks ____________________ 2-0 _ 4-0 ____ 6-0

wxdude64 ____________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 ____ 1-0

DonSutherland1 _______________0-0 _ 1-0 ____ 1-0

Scotty Lightning ______________ 0-0 _ 2*-0___ 2-0 ___ 1.5 - 0

RodneyS ______________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 ____ 1-0

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 ____ 1-0

wxallannj ______________________0-0 _ 1*-0____ 1-0 ___ 0.5 - 0

___ Consensus ________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 ____ 1-0

BKViking ______________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 ____ 0-1

Stormchaser Chuck ___________ 0-2 _ 0-0____ 0-2

RJay, Tom, RogerS, Rhino16, swh __0-0 _ 0-0____ 0-0

 

[Roger Smith]

 

Four Seasons Contest __ Winter 2023-24

Points for four seasons ... 10 for first (total 3 scores), 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, 1 point for all entrants with 2/3 or 3/3 

 

FORECASTER ___________________ DEC ___ JAN-FEB ___ TOTAL ___ Points

wxallannj ________________________ 576 ______ 1160 ______ 1736 ______10

DonSutherland 1 _________________482 ______ 1042 ______ 1524 ______ 7

RodneyS _________________________426 ______ 1071 ______ 1497 ______ 6

so_whats_happening ____________444 ______ 1043 ______ 1487 ______ 5

hudsonvalley21 __________________442 ______ 1008 ______ 1450 ______ 4

___ Consensus ___________________380 ______ 1028 ______ 1408 ______3.3

RJay _____________________________464 _______ 927 ______ 1391 ______ 3 __ (974) (1438) before late pen _ Con would be 2.8

BKViking ________________________ 336 ______ 1000 ______ 1336 ______ 2

Scotty Lightning _________________328 _______ 856 ______ 1184 ______ 1

rainsucks ________________________ -- -- _____ 1111 _______ 1111 _______ 1

wxdude64 _______________________206 ______ 892 ______ 1098 ______ 1

Tom _____________________________ 310 _______ 728 ______ 1038 ______ 1

___ Normal ________________________192 ______ 810 ______ 1002 ______ 1

Roger Smith _____________________294 _______ 499 _______ 793 ______ 1

Stormchaser Chuck _____________ -- -- ______ 792 _______ 792 ______ 1

Rhino16 _________________________ -- -- ______ 747 _______ 747 _______ 1

=====================

Persistence (Nov 2023) __________338 ______ 634 ______ 972 ______ 1