February 2024

[gravitylover]

32/32 and snowing hard with huge flakes. It's funny though how it's so wet it won't accumulate more than this half inch thick layer of goop and it's not really doing any good on the existing snow either. This is the biggest flakes of the year which is nice considering it may be the last. 

[TheClimateChanger]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

We have had a Virginia winter temperature regime in place since the +13.3 December 2015. NYC has been at a new winter average of 38.5° lasting almost an entire decade. The previous 1981-2010 winter average was 35.1° So that is +3.4 warmer over a 9 winter period. Plus this is a regional event for the East and many other sites have made a shift like this in December 2015 and are at +3 to +4 over 1981-2010 climate normals. I am not aware of any other region of the country that has ever had nearly a decade at +3.4° above the previous 30 year climate normals. It’s seems like the frequent marine heatwaves in the Eastern IO to WPAC have loaded the dice for more forcing in these regions which is warm for us. I don’t really know what it would take to shift this pattern. 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
Mean	41.0	35.7	38.8	38.5
2023-2024	44.6	37.0	39.4	40.4
2022-2023	38.5	43.5	41.1	41.0
2021-2022	43.8	30.3	37.3	37.1
2020-2021	39.2	34.8	34.2	36.1
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.1	39.2
2018-2019	40.1	32.5	36.2	36.3
2017-2018	35.0	31.7	42.0	36.1
2016-2017	38.3	38.0	41.6	39.3
2015-2016	50.8	34.5	37.7	41.0

 

That's child's play. How about +5.1F over a 9-year period? The coldest February is the same average as the 1981-2010 mean for the month, and the coldest winter season 1.5F above the 1981-2010 mean.

1981-2010 Averages

[ILoveWinter]

4 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Im impressed with snow cover remaining in Westchester. Granted we have hills. Enjoying last licks. 36F light rain

Drove up to the Berkshires today and was also impressed with the snow cover - especially in northern Westchester into Putnam. Funny enough snow cover dropped to almost nil once I got into central Dutchess county and it continued that way the rest of the drive up! The far northern areas did not cash in at all during the past two events. It is quite eery to be up here in Feb and not see much of any snow on the ground.

[TheClimateChanger]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

We have had a Virginia winter temperature regime in place since the +13.3 December 2015. NYC has been at a new winter average of 38.5° lasting almost an entire decade. The previous 1981-2010 winter average was 35.1° So that is +3.4 warmer over a 9 winter period. Plus this is a regional event for the East and many other sites have made a shift like this in December 2015 and are at +3 to +4 over 1981-2010 climate normals. I am not aware of any other region of the country that has ever had nearly a decade at +3.4° above the previous 30 year climate normals. It’s seems like the frequent marine heatwaves in the Eastern IO to WPAC have loaded the dice for more forcing in these regions which is warm for us. I don’t really know what it would take to shift this pattern. 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
Mean	41.0	35.7	38.8	38.5
2023-2024	44.6	37.0	39.4	40.4
2022-2023	38.5	43.5	41.1	41.0
2021-2022	43.8	30.3	37.3	37.1
2020-2021	39.2	34.8	34.2	36.1
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.1	39.2
2018-2019	40.1	32.5	36.2	36.3
2017-2018	35.0	31.7	42.0	36.1
2016-2017	38.3	38.0	41.6	39.3
2015-2016	50.8	34.5	37.7	41.0

 

Also BTV. Most recent 9 year period [March - February calendar] is averaging 48.8F versus a 45.9F average from 1981-2010. So that's about 3 degrees for the entire year, not just winter.

March 1980 - February 2010 Average 

Note: The warmest 12-month period from 3/80 - 2/10 is 0.7F below the mean of the last nine years. 

[RU848789]

6 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Im impressed with snow cover remaining in Westchester. Granted we have hills. Enjoying last licks. 36F light rain

Deep winter still here in Metuchen. Have had 2+" otg here since last Tuesday (10 days), which is nice.  24.6" on the season, which is more than anyone on the entire NE corridor from VA to Boston - not sure that's ever happened for me in my 30 years here, as we've gotten quite lucky this winter, especially with the amazing 11.25" on Saturday, which, in retrospect, is, I think, the most snow I've ever had over a 5 hour period, as it was just pouring with 4"/hr over one 30 minute period.  Top 5 all-time storm for me because of the sustained heavy snow and the huge overperformance relative to forecasts.  

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

That's child's play. How about +5.1F over a 9-year period? The coldest February is the same average as the 1981-2010 mean for the month, and the coldest winter season 1.5F above the 1981-2010 mean.

1981-2010 Averages

 

5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Also BTV. Most recent 9 year period [March - February calendar] is averaging 48.8F versus a 45.9F average from 1981-2010. So that's about 3 degrees for the entire year, not just winter.

March 1980 - February 2010 Average 

Note: The warmest 12-month period from 3/80 - 2/10 is 0.7F below the mean of the last nine years. 

wow, the amount of added heat needed to create these kind of long term changes must be absolutely amazing

[the_other_guy]

9 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

Drove up to the Berkshires today and was also impressed with the snow cover - especially in northern Westchester into Putnam. Funny enough snow cover dropped to almost nil once I got into central Dutchess county and it continued that way the rest of the drive up! The far northern areas did not cash in at all during the past two events. It is quite eery to be up here in Feb and not see much of any snow on the ground.

I noted the same thing on Sunday. There’s a hard line just north of Duchess and the snow doesn’t start again till Lake George.

Crazy winter. Im glad its over.

Sad state of affairs

[Allsnow]

7 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Deep winter still here in Metuchen. Have had 2+" otg here since last Tuesday (10 days), which is nice.  24.6" on the season, which is more than anyone on the entire NE corridor from VA to Boston - not sure that's ever happened for me in my 30 years here, as we've gotten quite lucky this winter, especially with the amazing 11.25" on Saturday, which, in retrospect, is, I think, the most snow I've ever had over a 5 hour period, as it was just pouring with 4"/hr over one 30 minute period.  Top 5 all-time storm for me because of the sustained heavy snow and the huge overperformance relative to forecasts.  

Finally our small little town was a local jackpot…

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

That's child's play. How about +5.1F over a 9-year period? The coldest February is the same average as the 1981-2010 mean for the month, and the coldest winter season 1.5F above the 1981-2010 mean.

Bradford was actually warmer than the winter of 01-02 for 2 years in a row now.

Time Series Summary for BRADFORD REGIONAL AIRPORT, PA - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023-2024	32.7	7
2	2022-2023	32.0	0
3	2001-2002	30.9	0
4	1997-1998	30.2	8
5	2016-2017	29.3	0
-	2015-2016	29.3	0
6	2011-2012	29.2	0
7	2012-2013	28.9	0
8	2019-2020	28.8	0
9	2021-2022	27.4	1
10	1998-1999	27.3	0

 

 

[MJO812]

Models look so ugly and boring 

Sad 

[Volcanic Winter]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

 

wow, the amount of added heat needed to create these kind of long term changes must be absolutely amazing

The scary thing is most of the added/excess heat energy is taken up by the oceans (~90% IIRC), so it’s not difficult to see the intense marine heatwaves as a major caution flag right now, IMO. 

I think it was Hansen’s paper that determined since sometime in the 2000’s the earth has entered a major energy disequilibrium which corresponds to a period of intense warming (as well as a lag effect as the earth tries to recalibrate). I know that recent paper has its critics and can be seen as a very extreme view, but I’m not among them. His conclusions are well supported, IMO. 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models look so ugly and boring 

Sad 

Enjoy the torch, it's the only torch ya got.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Enjoy the torch, it's the only torch ya got.

I am still looking at my phone in the morning when I wake up to see if the models show anything exciting. 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The scary thing is most of the added/excess heat energy is taken up by the oceans (~90% IIRC), so it’s not difficult to see the intense marine heatwaves as a major caution flag right now, IMO. 

I think it was Hansen’s paper that determined since sometime in the 2000’s the earth has entered a major energy disequilibrium which corresponds to a period of intense warming (as well as a lag effect as the earth tries to recalibrate). I know that recent paper has its critics and can be seen as a very extreme view, but I’m not among them. His conclusions are well supported, IMO. 

Ocean acidification is also an growing issue.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I am still looking at my phone in the morning when I wake up to see if the models show anything exciting. 

One last shot likely mid-March IMO.   A 5-7 day stretch where there's some cold around and maybe we get a marginal event like the one in mid Feb.

[Volcanic Winter]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Ocean acidification is also a growing issue.

Anoxic ocean events correspond with many of the major heat pulses in previous climate states. Turning nutrient rich water columns into aquatic deserts.

[ILoveWinter]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

I noted the same thing on Sunday. There’s a hard line just north of Duchess and the snow doesn’t start again till Lake George.

Crazy winter. Im glad its over.

Sad state of affairs

It did end up snowing a few inches in the Berks overnight, beautiful fluffy snow. Happy I got one more mini event under my belt lol. Will be a nice day to ski!

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Anoxic ocean events correspond with many of the major heat pulses in previous climate states. Turning nutrient rich water columns into aquatic deserts.

On humanity's present course, the risk of an anoxic ocean event will increase, especially later this century and beyond.

[MJO812]

Cfs ftw

[snowman19]

51 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

One last shot likely mid-March IMO.   A 5-7 day stretch where there's some cold around and maybe we get a marginal event like the one in mid Feb.

Marginal cold won’t cut it near the coast in mid-late March, you would need anomalous arctic air in place at that point and that’s going to be locked in Eurasia

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Marginal cold won’t cut it near the coast in mid-late March, you would need anomalous arctic air in place at that point and that’s going to be locked in Eurasia

My money's on your scenario but you never know N and W of NYC (even here)

[Dark Star]

9 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Deep winter still here in Metuchen. Have had 2+" otg here since last Tuesday (10 days), which is nice.  24.6" on the season, which is more than anyone on the entire NE corridor from VA to Boston - not sure that's ever happened for me in my 30 years here, as we've gotten quite lucky this winter, especially with the amazing 11.25" on Saturday, which, in retrospect, is, I think, the most snow I've ever had over a 5 hour period, as it was just pouring with 4"/hr over one 30 minute period.  Top 5 all-time storm for me because of the sustained heavy snow and the huge overperformance relative to forecasts.  

NOTHING left here in Garwood (cental Union County).  Only piles left from shoveling.  Anything that gone sun (12") melted by Tuesday.  Considering we were near normal temperature wise, and I don't consider mid February to be a bad "sun angle" yet...

[EastonSN+]

This will likely be Central Park's 3rd below average snowfall winter in a row.

The longest streak I could find was 10 consecutive years from 84/85 to 92/93. Most recent 96/97 through 99/00 (4 years). 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Ocean acidification is also an growing issue.

What causes ocean acidification, Don? Does the excess CO2 get absorbed by the oceans and make them more acidic?

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

This will likely be Central Park's 3rd below average snowfall winter in a row.

The longest streak I could find was 10 consecutive years from 84/85 to 92/93. Most recent 96/97 through 99/00. 

Thats impressive... 06-07 and 07-08 were pretty bad too, but then we got to normal snowfall in 08-09

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

NOTHING left here in Garwood (cental Union County).  Only piles left from shoveling.  Anything that gone sun (12") melted by Tuesday.  Considering we were near normal temperature wise, and I don't consider mid February to be a bad "sun angle" yet...

Yep same here, the only snow now left are the small piles on the edge of the parking lot.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Marginal cold won’t cut it near the coast in mid-late March, you would need anomalous arctic air in place at that point and that’s going to be locked in Eurasia

He's probably thinking something like March 1998, and that was about as marginal as it gets lol.

Did we ever get below freezing during that storm?

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Bradford was actually warmer than the winter of 01-02 for 2 years in a row now.

Time Series Summary for BRADFORD REGIONAL AIRPORT, PA - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023-2024	32.7	7
2	2022-2023	32.0	0
3	2001-2002	30.9	0
4	1997-1998	30.2	8
5	2016-2017	29.3	0
-	2015-2016	29.3	0
6	2011-2012	29.2	0
7	2012-2013	28.9	0
8	2019-2020	28.8	0
9	2021-2022	27.4	1
10	1998-1999	27.3	0

 

 

and this is the first time they've ever averaged  a winter above freezing? wow-- I didn't realize you could have that near our latitude, I thought you'd have to go up into the Dacks at least to average that cold....

 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

He's probably thinking something like March 1998, and that was about as marginal as it gets lol.

Did we ever get below freezing during that storm?

It was a night time event too....32-33 degrees the whole storm-was vaporized in about 12 hrs after it stopped too lol

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The scary thing is most of the added/excess heat energy is taken up by the oceans (~90% IIRC), so it’s not difficult to see the intense marine heatwaves as a major caution flag right now, IMO. 

I think it was Hansen’s paper that determined since sometime in the 2000’s the earth has entered a major energy disequilibrium which corresponds to a period of intense warming (as well as a lag effect as the earth tries to recalibrate). I know that recent paper has its critics and can be seen as a very extreme view, but I’m not among them. His conclusions are well supported, IMO. 

It makes a lot of sense and here's another caution flag and this is for those who think nature will balance everything out on its own.... think of what it will take to "recalibrate" and what kind of effects that recalibration will have on us as a species.