February 2024

[snowman19]

The fat lady is standing at the mic and she’s warming up her vocal cords…..

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The fat lady is standing at the mic and she’s warming up her vocal cords…..
 

That's about it if that happens...however the cold will come 4/1 lol

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's about it if that happens

Yep. And look at where all the arctic cold is…locked on the complete opposite side of the pole in Eurasia and it stays there into March. This winter is not only on life support, the Priest has given it Last Rights and the heart monitor is starting to flatline…..

[vegan_edible]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The fat lady is standing at the mic and she’s warming up her vocal cords…..
 

Do-Re-Mi-Fa-So-La-Ti...

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's about it if that happens...however the cold will come 4/1 lol

I still believe we have a shot in March. These don't look bad at all.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I still believe we have a shot in March. These don't look bad at all.

White rain city at best like last March-there is no cold air and you need arctic cold in March

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I still believe we have a shot in March. These don't look bad at all.

You’ve been saying this since November 

[the_other_guy]

The winter is over for NYC after this week.

Dont need a chart or a model or an MJO number to tell you that.

 

Look at the date, look at the weather over next 10 days and youre down to one off events in mid March. Given the warmth this winter, it is unlikely

Game over

 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. And look at where all the arctic cold is…locked on the complete opposite side of the pole in Eurasia and it stays there into March. This winter is not only on life support, the Priest has given it Last Rights and the heart monitor is starting to flatline…..

That's where the cold air was earlier this season.   I was shocked when we got anything that came close to winter this year.  For intent and purposes, looks like its over.  Can never rule out a March "storm"...

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1939)
NYC: 69 (1939)
LGA: 70 (2018)


Lows:

 

EWR: 1 (2015)
NYC: 2 (2015)
LGA: 3 (2015)

 

Historical:

 

1805 - The Potomac River was opened after being closed by ice for a period of two months. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1898 - Eastern Wisconsin experienced their biggest snowstorm of record. Racine received thirty inches, and drifts around Milwaukee measured fifteen feet high. (David Ludlum)

 

1912: A strong area of low pressure produced snow in Amarillo and high winds to Austin, Texas. In the warm sector of the low, severe storms developed and produced an estimated F3 tornado in Shreveport, Louisiana. The tornado killed nine people and injured 50 others. The tornado passed near Centenary College, where windows were damaged, and the grandstand at the ballpark was partially damaged. In addition, significant damage occurred in the Freewater section, where an estimated 75 to 100 houses were demolished. 

 

1912: During the 20th and 21st, a severe snowstorm attended by high winds lasting from 34 to 30 hours swept over Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The amount of snow that fell in this storm was not only large, but it drifted severely. In many places, snowbanks 5 feet and higher were formed, railroad cuts were filled, highways in many places were impassable, electric service wires of all kinds were temporarily put out of commission, all trade and traffic generally demoralized. This snowstorm was part of a general disturbance that developed over the southwest on the 20th and moved northeastward over the Central and Eastern States, increasing in strength during the 21st and 22nd, and which proved to be one of the most severe and most extensive general disturbances that have passed over this section of the country for several years past. Besides the heavy snow in the northern part of the storm, heavy rains, gales, and destructive thunderstorms attended over most of the southern and eastern portions. Wind velocities of 50 to 75 miles per hour were reported at many places during the passage of this storm. Some wind blew steadily at high velocities for several hours. 

1953 - A snowstorm in Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and Minnesota produced drifts ten feet high which derailed trains. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm system over Arizona spread heavy snow from the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains Region. Thunderstorms in central Texas produced golf ball size hail about the same time north central Texas was being blanketed with up to 8 inches of snow, closing many schools. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Snow and strong northerly winds ushered arctic air into the Great Lakes Region. The temperature at Sault Ste Marie MI plunged from 30 degrees at 5 AM to one below zero by 3 PM, with a wind chill reading of 40 degrees below zero. Five cities in Florida reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 90 degrees at Lakeland was just a degree shy of their February record. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing during the early afternoon produced severe weather from eastern Texas to Alabama and northwest Florida. Thunderstorms spawned a dozen tornadoes during the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms also produced 90 mph winds around Vicksburg MS, and 100 mph winds around Jackson MS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Heavy snow spread into southwestern Kansas and the panhandle region of Oklahoma and Texas. Heavier snowfall totals included 12 inches at Boise City OK, 11 inches at Liberal KS, and 10 inches at Spearman TX. Blowing and drifting snow closed roads in the Oklahoma panhandle. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1995: The temperature at the Civic Center in Los Angeles, California, soared to 95 degrees, the highest ever recorded at the location during February.

[snowman19]

That's where the cold air was earlier this season.   I was shocked when we got anything that came close to winter this year.  For intent and purposes, looks like its over.  Can never rule out a March "storm"...

Once we get to mid-March we will be fighting spring climo, sun angle and length of day. It’s over at our latitude at that point minus some freak, anomalous event

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

That's where the cold air was earlier this season.   I was shocked when we got anything that came close to winter this year.  For intent and purposes, looks like its over.  Can never rule out a March "storm"...

We can make a lot happen with even marginal conditions-the storm a week ago was a setup that most would say isn’t ideal for NYC and it was still a widespread warning event for most. The Sat storm came in and was at least an advisory event everywhere. In Jan we did have the 2 minor events. I remember that as lousy as Winter 18-19 was, we still did have a good March period. It’s just a matter of setting up a good enough pattern for even a few days to get the pieces together for a MECS. Too bad that couldn’t happen this year (or is very unlikely to), the background state and especially Pacific are just too hostile. 

[the_other_guy]

what will be our low temperature this year? It was pretty mild. Did it get down to 11 or 12 in NYC?

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

what will be our low temperature this year? It was pretty mild. Did it get down to 11 or 12 in NYC?

No. 17 is the low so far.

[the_other_guy]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

No. 17 is the low so far.

That is very warm for the season low

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

what will be our low temperature this year? It was pretty mild. Did it get down to 11 or 12 in NYC?

My min was 13.6 on 1/22, which is about 6 degrees warmer than my minimum last year which happened in December. Very few nights in the teens for me this winter in the northern edge of the pine barrens, which is unusual. We typically have many. 

Both Jan and Feb averaged 35 degrees and change which was actually about 5 degrees colder than Jan and Feb last year, and about equal to December last year. Dec this year was much warmer at 41. 

[wxallannj]

My coldest here in Clifton so far this winter season is 14 set on January 17th.  My 50 year record for the warmest winter season minimum was 15 set over the 2001-2002 season.

The coldest February temperature so far this month was 20 set on the 18th.   If that stands it would be my warmest February minimum temperature since at least 1973

[TriPol]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The fat lady is standing at the mic and she’s warming up her vocal cords…..
 

There's ALWAYS a storm to chase toward the end of February/Beginning of March. ALWAYS. Every year. 

[Allsnow]

 

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

We have a chance but what this is going to do is delay Spring .

[bluewave]

Even Islip didn’t drop below 17° which is a first.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023-2024	17	10
2	2001-2002	15	0
-	1997-1998	15	0
3	2020-2021	13	0
-	2019-2020	13	0
4	2009-2010	12	0
-	2005-2006	12	0
5	2011-2012	10	0
-	2007-2008	10	0

[Allsnow]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even Islip didn’t drop below 17° which is a first.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023-2024	17	10
2	2001-2002	15	0
-	1997-1998	15	0
3	2020-2021	13	0
-	2019-2020	13	0
4	2009-2010	12	0
-	2005-2006	12	0
5	2011-2012	10	0
-	2007-2008	10	0

Perhaps Saturday night? 

[donsutherland1]

After a cold start, the temperature rose into the upper 30s to around 40° today. Even milder air will begin to overspread the region tomorrow.

Afterward, aside from a brief push of cooler air next weekend, temperatures should remain generally above normal once the milder pattern develops. The potential exists for the closing days of February to wind up much warmer than normal. Little or no additional snowfall is likely in the New York City or Philadelphia areas through the remainder of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade.  

The SOI was +3.27 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.871 today.

On February 18 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.869 (RMM). The February 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.056 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.8° (3.9° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 40.4°-40.8°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. It would also be the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with 40.0° or above mean temperatures. Since 1869, there have been six winters with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above. Five have occurred since 2000.

 

[psv88]

Down to 26 already with the 5” snowpack holding its own. Pretty much cement right now. 
 

my low of the year was 13. 

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Perhaps Saturday night? 

The MOS gets down to 19° but may be able to get closer to 17° again if the winds go calm faster.

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Down to 26 already with the 5” snowpack holding its own. Pretty much cement right now. 
 

my low of the year was 13. 

The snow compressed a lot after it first fell, then the daily melt/refreeze makes it pretty much bulletproof. Lots of water in that snow as well. Helps preserve it well. 

[jm1220]

Down to 23 here. Sheesh 

[JustinRP37]

All these people worried about when winter would be over and many called it over in mid January. I will have two full epic weeks of winter since the snow fell to when the warm up begins. Still have half a foot of snow on the ground. It was a warm start to February but overall the month wasn’t a loss for winter weather enthusiasts. Enjoy what you have as the most godforsaken season of the year is next. Allergies, mud, mosquitos, and flies. If I could “spring bird” to Phoenix from mid March to early June I would. Then summer will be hot and humid, perfect for the beach and pool before summer ends in “October” and we get our one month fall and then who knows what next winter brings. 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

All these people worried about when winter would be over and many called it over in mid January. I will have two full epic weeks of winter since the snow fell to when the warm up begins. Still have half a foot of snow on the ground. It was a warm start to February but overall the month wasn’t a loss for winter weather enthusiasts. Enjoy what you have as the most godforsaken season of the year is next. Allergies, mud, mosquitos, and flies. If I could “spring bird” to Phoenix from mid March to early June I would. Then summer will be hot and humid, perfect for the beach and pool before summer ends in “October” and we get our one month fall and then who knows what next winter brings. 

Epic weeks of winter? What? Nothing about this week has been epic. Sorry 

[Dark Star]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We can make a lot happen with even marginal conditions-the storm a week ago was a setup that most would say isn’t ideal for NYC and it was still a widespread warning event for most. The Sat storm came in and was at least an advisory event everywhere. In Jan we did have the 2 minor events. I remember that as lousy as Winter 18-19 was, we still did have a good March period. It’s just a matter of setting up a good enough pattern for even a few days to get the pieces together for a MECS. Too bad that couldn’t happen this year (or is very unlikely to), the background state and especially Pacific are just too hostile. 

The Tuesday storm started a little later than what was progged a week in advance, allowing the "cooler" air to advance, and the storm was further south.  The cooler air mass was firmly in place for Saturday's storm, so I still say the SNOW Triangle:  Moisture, cold and luck.