LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s called El Niño, amped up pac jet and allot of onshore flow. We haven’t had your normal winter polar/arctic highs which bring days of brilliant sunshine. It seems like a weird el nino la nina hybrid. I remember several el ninos when we had nice arctic shots that cleared out all the cloud pollution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: We had a great run up until 2021. A long stretch in which we had many above average snowfall winters. That couldn't last forever. We were overdue for a few bad winters. This isn't a surprise. It's frustrating now, but it's hard to complain after the long run that we had. I grew up in the 70s on LI. The concept of a 6”+ storm basically did not exist at that time. The greatest amounts that were ever forecasted were 4-8” by AW because that was as big a storm as there could be or so it seemed. We had two storms of about 7” during that period and that was it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 hours ago, qg_omega said: Not boring…..Not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 11 minutes ago, Tatamy said: I grew up in the 70s on LI. The concept of a 6”+ storm basically did not exist at that time. The greatest amounts that were ever forecasted were 4-8” by AW because that was as big a storm as there could be or so it seemed. We had two storms of about 7” during that period and that was it. That's something I like about the Poconos, no matter what you'll always get at least one 6 inch snowstorm there. The best storms I found were the daylong light snow events with absolutely nothing showing on radar. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 29 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Absolutely. I've said it several times but all summer and fall has been very wet and gloomy. We need a pattern shift this spring. And the wildfire smoke!! Awful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Not boring…..Not At least Mexico can cash in 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Shut it down: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Omega block looks to roll east 2nd week of February while the weekend cold shot trends milder. One of the quietest first two weeks of February I’ve seen modeled. Makes sense we would regress a bit from the epic wet pattern of the past many months 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, ag3 said: Shut it down: As I had said 10 days or more ago 2/3-2/8 was probably going to be the warmest stretch...it may be more 2/6-2/10 but fairly close 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: And the wildfire smoke!! Awful At least April and May were good before we got smoked out in June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: As I had said 10 days or more ago 2/3-2/8 was probably going to be the warmest stretch...it may be more 2/6-2/10 but fairly close How warm are we talking about though? Highs in the 40s aren't so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Omega block looks to roll east 2nd week of February while the weekend cold shot trends milder. One of the quietest first two weeks of February I’ve seen modeled. Makes sense we would regress a bit from the epic wet pattern of the past many months Less rain is really good news, now let's work on the sunshine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: That's something I like about the Poconos, no matter what you'll always get at least one 6 inch snowstorm there. The best storms I found were the daylong light snow events with absolutely nothing showing on radar. Yes we did get ours this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Yes we did get ours this year. That 12-15 inch snowstorm withstood the two rainstorms that came after it, the snowcover was resilient! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 22 minutes ago, ag3 said: Shut it down: Even if the pac flips mid month where is the cold coming from? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Sne having their wettest two month period ever and little snow to show for it Interior SNE isn't doing that bad. 2 hours ago, psv88 said: Yea people are losing their minds over the lack of sunshine. This has been a truly horrific month. Im loving this minus the fact this winter sucks. 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Even if the pac flips mid month where is the cold coming from? So everyone will be wrong about a flip in February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Even if the pac flips mid month where is the cold coming from? The… North Pole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: this looks like a repeat of January with a week to 10 days of winter like weather and at least a couple of snowstorm chances........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Interior SNE isn't doing that bad. Im loving this minus the fact this winter sucks. So everyone will be wrong about a flip in February? How could you not like the sun? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 38 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The big change always at least 15 days away, so when they're wrong people will have forgotten and if by chance he's right, will never hear the end of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Even if the pac flips mid month where is the cold coming from? That’s a very good point. If Canada and the CONUS gets inundated with PAC air the next 2 weeks, not only is the arctic cold gone but you are going to loose a lot of snow and ice pack, also, it’s a hell of a lot easier to put Canada back in the freezer in January (like we just saw) than it is in mid-late February. Even if the pattern flips on 2/15, it’s going to take awhile to seed Canada with arctic air again. It’s not instant. I’m sure @SnowGoose69 will agree with this 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 9 hours ago, NEG NAO said: its more about the el nino moving faster and stronger into the central regions (modoki el nino) but indications now are a complete faster collapse of the entire el nino and the beginning of la nina conditions by early spring The El Niño isn’t collapsing at all. In fact, there is a massive WWB (westerly wind burst) forming right now and the Nino is strengthening again. Nino region 3.4 is starting to warm as we speak. This is only going to extend the strong Nino through late February now. See: Nino 3.4 staying strong and warming again: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The El Niño isn’t collapsing at all. In fact, there is a massive WWB (westerly wind burst) forming right now and the Nino is strengthening again. Nino region 3.4 is starting to warm as we speak. This is only going to extend the strong Nino through late February now. See: Nino 3.4 staying strong and warming again: we are currently going through whats called an el nino "burst" which is going to cause a very active southern stream. Omega Block developing and heights will rise in Canada and colder air will be sent into the lower 48 just like January and we will have a wintry period the middle to latter part of February similar to January with snow chances here along the way ........ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: That’s a very good point. If Canada and the CONUS gets inundated with PAC air the next 2 weeks, not only is the arctic cold gone but you are going to loose a lot of snow and ice pack, also, it’s a hell of a lot easier to put Canada back in the freezer in January (like we just saw) than it is in mid-late February. Even if the pattern flips on 2/15, it’s going to take awhile to seed Canada with arctic air again. It’s not instant. I’m sure @SnowGoose69 will agree with this cross polar flow develops quickly. it's a pretty rapid flip 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Not shocking, we lost the direct shot of artic air this weekend. Now it’s glancing at best, whole setup shifted east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 For the snow starved, from Vermont (Weston and Londonderry) 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 People excited about mid February to mid March . Let's pray. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: That’s a very good point. If Canada and the CONUS gets inundated with PAC air the next 2 weeks, not only is the arctic cold gone but you are going to loose a lot of snow and ice pack, also, it’s a hell of a lot easier to put Canada back in the freezer in January (like we just saw) than it is in mid-late February. Even if the pattern flips on 2/15, it’s going to take awhile to seed Canada with arctic air again. It’s not instant. I’m sure @SnowGoose69 will agree with this A "hell" of a lot easier for Canada to be put back in the freezer in Jan vs. mid Feb? Come on man, I know you are a warm weenie but that's pushing it. Also it's not like there was a ton of snowpack before the January cool down and it still happened - and quite fast mind you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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