February 2024

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Would not surprise me if the tail end of February and March torch, then a huge -NAO block shows up in April and we keep getting backdoored for 30 days

P3/4 are cold for March so I wouldn’t be shocked if the month flipped after a warm start 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

P3/4 are cold for March so I wouldn’t be shocked if the month flipped after a warm start 

Yea, possibly, if we believe that MJO progression is correct, but my guess is March averages warmer to much warmer than normal. Early March at least looks way above average. Past strong El Nino events had warm early-mid March’s but they did get cooler after mid-March. We’ll see

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

10 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't think we have been experiencing the lower then normal seasonal snowfall region wide long enough to come to any decisive conclusions. I agree about "too warm". What happens with the snowfall theory when we get another 5 - 10 year period of above normal ? And as witnessed this season so far that might not include NYC Central Park because there are numerous factors affecting its ability to accumulate snow .............

If you changed the last two words of your statement to measure snow, you would be right on target.

I hate to keep beating a dead horse but in this case it's that simple, there are years they get it right, but more often than not they don't. The last three years they have been abysmal again. They go through periods where they don't seem to care that much about getting snowfall totals correct in the Park. I won't bore you with all of the reason again.

 

[snowman19]

Would be totally fitting for the big stalled upper low to show up south of the Maritimes again for April. 
If the snow this week is it for us so be it, at least a half decent finish in a sea of trash. 

The warmth from November through today has been staggering and it’s not done yet, it looks to continue into early March….at least. Hard to believe actually. Even for a super El Niño this is just ridiculous:

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thank Don. Also, during the larger storm the intense banding just missed CPK, a little west and perhaps up to 25 inches.

I agree with you on how warming is affecting our snowfall. I do not think we hit a snow wall after 2018 and we will struggle to hit 50% of current average moving forward, but rather a slow steady decline as a backdrop to normal cyclical patters. 

I am not as aggressive as you are however, as I believe the decline will be relatively slow due to volatility/potential for historic events. An example would be if NYC is the new Philly from 1996, where Philly was closer to the moisture and received over 30 inches during the blizzard while NYC started with virga due to the temps in the teens at the start and low dew points (resulting in 20.5 I believe). Our latitude and closer proximity to the water would fuel such extreme events similar to 2016.

I do have a question, if we were to have a repeat of 70 through 85, which was at times extremely cold and suppressed, wouldn't we see an increase of snowfall due to higher fees and less suppression from the PV? Just contemplating.

 

The 1970-85 storm tracks might result in more snowfall than during that period, as warmer air holds more moisture and it would be sufficiently cold for snow.

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and had that been the case, Don, JFK would likely have been over 20" and have had its first double digit snowstorm in many years!

 

Saturday’s storm probably would have exceeded 10” had the snow band been 30 miles farther north.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The warmth from November through today has been staggering and it’s not done yet, it looks to continue into early March….at least. Hard to believe actually. Even for a super El Niño this is just ridiculous:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Take a look at the visible satellite in the midwest and lower Canada-almost no snowcover which just makes it warmer

[donsutherland1]

The cool, but not exceptionally cold pattern responsible for the snowiest week of Winter 2023-24 is nearing an end. Milder weather will likely begin to overspread the region by Wednesday.

Afterward, aside from a brief push of cooler air next weekend, temperatures should remain generally above normal once the milder pattern develops. The potential exists for the closing days of February to wind up much warmer than normal. Little or no additional snowfall is likely in the New York City or Philadelphia areas through the remainder of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade.  

The SOI was -5.48 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.225 today.

On February 17 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.056 (RMM). The February 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.278 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.6° (3.7° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 40.3°-40.8°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. It would also be the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with 40.0° or above mean temperatures. Since 1869, there have been six winters with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above. Five have occurred since 2000.

 

[TheManWithNoFace]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Take a look at the visible satellite in the midwest and lower Canada-almost no snowcover which just makes it warmer

Yeah I thought about that yesterday. It was a stiff northwest wind, but it didn't have that bite to it that you'd expect on the backend of a winter storm with a 290 vector. I quickly realized "it's because the source region isn't cold."

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

Yeah I thought about that yesterday. It was a stiff northwest wind, but it didn't have that bite to it that you'd expect on the backend of a winter storm with a 290 vector. I quickly realized "it's because the source region isn't cold."

Yep-you'd normally have temps in the 20's this time of year given the source region-instead it's 35-40

[tmagan]

Central Park needs 2.5" of snow the rest of the way to avoid consecutive winters with under 10 inches of snow (which would be a first).

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Would not surprise me if the tail end of February and March torch, then a huge -NAO block shows up in April and we keep getting backdoored for 30 days

but why wouldn't it be like other strong el nino to la nina transitions and we torch all spring and summer

don't need or want an nao block after March

 

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but why wouldn't it be like other strong el nino to la nina transitions and we torch all spring and summer

don't need or want an nao block after March

 

Because this season didn’t act like a canonical strong Nino unless you consider 1972-73 which also had a -PDO, but that season has a big SE snow event which we haven’t had. There’s also often a strong Gulf of Alaska trough/vortex which we haven’t had. We had huge Arctic intrusions into the Plains/Rockies in Jan when usually they would be warm and Nino climo would have us colder. 

[jm1220]

Just noticed this cool new feature on the PSU EWall site. Looks like the National Blend of Models-NBM is available here.

NBM MODEL LOOP (psu.edu)

[MJO812]

LOL

[bluewave]

The first 5 years of the 2020s are averaging less than half the snowfall of the 2010s. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	T	0.0	3.3	4.7	8.8	0.4	T	17.1
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	3.1	9.1	M	M	12.2
2022-2023	0.0	T	0.1	T	2.0	0.6	0.0	2.7
2021-2022	0.0	0.1	0.1	14.6	2.3	0.8	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	T	0.0	11.9	3.2	30.6	T	0.0	45.7
2019-2020	0.0	T	4.2	2.7	T	T	T	6.9

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	1.0	1.3	9.8	12.9	15.7	2.2	0.1	43.1
2013-2014	0.0	T	9.4	20.8	30.3	0.2	0.4	61.1
2012-2013	0.0	6.6	1.9	1.4	10.8	8.8	0.0	29.5
2011-2012	5.2	0.0	0.0	3.3	0.3	0.0	0.0	8.8
2010-2011	0.0	T	24.5	37.4	4.1	2.2	T	68.2
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	13.3	1.7	32.9	T	0.0	47.9

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	T	T	3.3	6.8	9.9	0.5	T	20.4
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	5.5	10.1	M	M	15.6
2022-2023	0.0	T	0.8	T	4.1	T	0.0	4.9
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	20.8	4.7	2.0	0.0	27.7
2020-2021	T	T	10.0	3.1	30.7	0.0	0.0	43.8
2019-2020	0.0	T	5.5	4.6	T	T	T	10.1

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.8	1.8	8.8	15.0	17.3	3.4	0.0	47.2
2013-2014	0.0	0.1	10.9	13.4	32.1	0.8	0.1	57.4
2012-2013	0.0	8.4	7.8	4.7	30.4	13.0	0.0	64.3
2011-2012	4.0	0.0	0.0	7.4	2.2	T	T	13.6
2010-2011	0.0	0.4	12.0	42.0	5.0	3.2	T	62.6
2009-2010	T	0.0	13.4	7.7	16.9	0.1	T	38.1

[donsutherland1]

Winter 2023-24 Update:

Looking back at the winter, it appears that a critical assumption that differentiated forecasting success from forecasting failure concerned the kind of El Niño that was likely. The guidance consistently supported an East-based ENSO evolving into a basinwide event. Since 1980 (to reflect the impact of background warming) the outcome for those ENSO events was:

A small number of forecasters incorrectly went against the evidence arguing for the evolution into a Modoki (Central Pacific-based) event. For purposes of this analysis, I included even those events that saw conditions consistent with Modoki events only in February. The outcome associated with those events was:

Not surprisingly, those forecasts favored cold in the eastern United States.

What happened?

In the end, the guidance proved correct. A strong east-based ENSO evolved into a basinwide ENSO. The basinwide ENSO has persisted through February 14th and barring a dramatic cooling in ENSO Region 1+2, February is all but certain to feature a monthly anomaly of +0.5°C or above.
The winter outcome through February 17th:

 

[SnoSki14]

12 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Because this season didn’t act like a canonical strong Nino unless you consider 1972-73 which also had a -PDO, but that season has a big SE snow event which we haven’t had. There’s also often a strong Gulf of Alaska trough/vortex which we haven’t had. We had huge Arctic intrusions into the Plains/Rockies in Jan when usually they would be warm and Nino climo would have us colder. 

These ENSO events will have less influence as the climate continues to warm. 

[TJW014]

Down to 17* this morning in the Pine Barrens. Looks like NW NJ down to the single digits

[Albedoman]

down to 9 degrees in the LV this morning. Snow pack has helped. Yesterday, I got down to 8 degrees

 

[SACRUS]

 

23 now to 29 now and another bright sunny day.  North/shade snow with another onslaught today.  Overall warmer to close out the month with a day or two in between colder (Sat/Sun).  Mar opens with transient front/cool shot before return to overall warmer to much warmer. 

 

 

[TJW014]

Sun feels fantastic. UV index projected to be a 4 today. Might even be able to get some color working outside today.

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the end, the guidance proved correct. A strong east-based ENSO evolved into a basinwide ENSO. The basinwide ENSO has persisted through February 14th and barring a dramatic cooling in ENSO Region 1+2, February is all but certain to feature a monthly anomaly of +0.5°C or above.
The winter outcome through February 17th:

My guess is that the unusually active MJO 2-7 for such a strong El Niño combined with the record Atlantic SSTs for a much stronger Eastern ridge than usual in an El Niño. Notice how much higher the heights were in the East compared to the Euro seasonal forecast. The -PDO background could also have given an assist. 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that the unusually active MJO 2-7 for such a strong El Niño combined with the record Atlantic SSTs for a much stronger Eastern ridge than usual in an El Niño. Notice how much higher the heights were in the East compared to the Euro seasonal forecast. The -PDO background could also have given an assist. 

 

 

I agree. I believe both factors played an important role in shaping the outcome for Winter 2023-24. They likely made the difference in what will probably be the CONUS's warmest winter on record. We'll probably see more such outcomes when it comes to details, as the warmer oceans and more frequent/widespread marine heatwaves distort the patterns from what might more typically occur during various ENSO cycles.

In my case, I wanted to illustrate how one's going against the guidance to get a basic assumption incorrect could have a large impact on forecast verification.

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Because this season didn’t act like a canonical strong Nino unless you consider 1972-73 which also had a -PDO, but that season has a big SE snow event which we haven’t had. There’s also often a strong Gulf of Alaska trough/vortex which we haven’t had. We had huge Arctic intrusions into the Plains/Rockies in Jan when usually they would be warm and Nino climo would have us colder. 

This seems fine, but the thing is we have had dry and very warm to hot springs the last 2 years, so I don't think it has anything to do with ENSO, because we hit 90+ last April in a la nina pattern.  I just believe we're moving away from -nao, even in the spring time and back door fronts are becoming more rare here.  Based on this and based on the last two springs, I strongly believe the better bet is to go for a very warm to hot and dry spring with multiple 90 degree days, both in April and May.

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. I believe both factors played an important role in shaping the outcome for Winter 2023-24. They likely made the difference in what will probably be the CONUS's warmest winter on record. We'll probably see more such outcomes when it comes to details, as the warmer oceans and more frequent/widespread marine heatwaves distort the patterns from what might more typically occur during various ENSO cycles.

In my case, I wanted to illustrate how one's going against the guidance to get a basic assumption incorrect could have a large impact on forecast verification.

yes and very warm to hot springs with far fewer backdoor fronts.

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that the unusually active MJO 2-7 for such a strong El Niño combined with the record Atlantic SSTs for a much stronger Eastern ridge than usual in an El Niño. Notice how much higher the heights were in the East compared to the Euro seasonal forecast. The -PDO background could also have given an assist. 

 

 

there's no reason not to think we'll have a strong se ridge right through the spring and summer too.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

These ENSO events will have less influence as the climate continues to warm. 

I mean it's already happening, the last two springs were very warm to hot and dry.

I love it-- far fewer allergies for me.

Now we just need to get rid of the rainy summers.

[vegan_edible]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

LOL

that rain sure does look interesting!

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

that rain sure does look interesting!

I think George's expression perfectly encapsulates the feeling lol.