February 2024

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Even if it ended today, for myself personally, I have reached 50% of average annual snowfall at 15.5. 

I went in honestly thinking 97/98 was possible, so from an expectations perspective I am ok.

the el nino was nowhere near as strong as 97-98, it was much closer to 57-58 and 72-73, which shows you can get either extreme-- very snowy or snowless

what this proves and the truth is enso has very little influence on how much snow we get, the only thing that really matters is blocking (and it doesn't have to be nao blocking.)

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 71 (2011)
NYC: 68 (1981)
LGA: 67 (2011)


Lows:

EWR: -1 (1979)
NYC:  0 (1979)
LGA: 0 (1979)

 

Historical:

 

1899 - While much of the central and eastern U.S. was recovering from the most severe cold wave of modern history, the temperature at San Francisco soared to 80 degrees to establish a record for month of February. (David Ludlum)

1959 - Some of the higher elevations of California were in the midst of a five day storm which produced 189 inches of snow, a single storm record for North America. (13th-19th) (David Ludlum)

 

1965: A massive avalanche kills 26 men at the Granduc Copper Mine in British Columbia on this day.

1987 - A small but intense low pressure system combined with northerly upslope winds to produce eight inches of snow in five hours at Meeteetsie WY, located southeast of Cody. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms soaked the Central Gulf Coast Region with heavy rain. Totals in southern Louisiana ranged up to 8.50 inches near the town of Ridge, with 6.55 inches at Plaguemine. Thunderstorms in northern Florida drenched Apalachicola with 5.41 inches of rain in 24 hours, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Mayo. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - An intense but slow moving Pacific storm worked its way across Utah over a two day period. The storm blanketed the valleys with 4 to 12 inches of snow, and produced up to 42 inches of snow in the mountains. Heavy snow also fell across northern Arizona. Williams received 22 inches of snow, and 12 inches was reported along the south rim of the Grand Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992: A thunderstorm spawned a powerful F4 tornado for so far north for the time of the year in southern Van Wert County in Ohio. The tornado touched down just west of US Route 127 and traveled northeastward for about 3 miles. One house was completely leveled, and nine others experienced severe damage. Six people were injured. 

 

 

2003:

 

So interesting we ended a historic 2010-11 winter with 70 degree warmth.

In other news, it's the anniversary of PD2!

 

[SnowGoose69]

29 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

From what I've been told by a former coworker at OKX, the CPK conservancy folks do a better job than the security guards that used to do it. But they're still not trained observers like FAA contract observers and probably still lower quality than good long-running COOP sites and diligent CoCoRaHS observers.

If I were to guess, they too often or mostly adhere only to the 6-hour board clearing and don't take intermediate measurements when the situation (melting and/or sublimation of fallen snow) requires it.

 

I always wondered how they measured back before 93.  I assume they labeled the measurements at CPK but they must have been getting done outside the NWS office at Rockefeller Plaza at the time

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I always wondered how they measured back before 93.  I assume they labeled the measurements at CPK but they must have been getting done outside the NWS office at Rockefeller Plaza at the time

Was it 1993 when the changes happened? I thought it was 2000, right when they stopped measuring temperature properly (because of bad siting.)

 

[donsutherland1]

For reference: March clusters based on cases with an average ONI of +1.500C or above for December-February:

The CFSv2 currently favors a warmer version of Cluster 1. The single case with a negative PDO was March 1973 (Cluster 4).

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It's interesting most of those seasons were very good, the ones which were below normal snowfall are a minority.

How far back do the records from JFK go... I was shocked to see 1948-49 in there!  Is there any record from there for the historic 1947-48 winter and the December 1947 HECS? That was NYC's biggest snowstorm of the 20th century!

It's interesting 1982-83 isn't in there, as that was the only winter in the 80s that they exceeded 30" of snowfall.

 

JFK's records go back to July 1948.  JFK picked up 18.0" on December 19, 1948.

LaGuardia is the only location in Queens that covers 1947-48.  Seasonal snowfall there was 63.6". 22.8" fell there during the December 26-27, 1947 snowstorm.

[Snowstorms]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

2006-07 started as the warmest winter on record though and only flipped in February

That was a colder stretch but the really cold stretch started with 2002-03.

we took  a break from the cold in a few of those years. between that year and 2014-15

2006-07, 2007-08, 2011-12

 

I agree. 2006-07 started off incredibly warm and the Feb cold wasn't enough to erase the warmth. 2007-08 may have been warm for us out east but it was cold across the plains and further west.

I'd say it started with 2000-01 as it was quite cold. 2005-06 and 2012-13 were also warm too. 9/15 winters between 2000 and 2015 were cold whereas in the last 8, only 1-2 winters were cold. Quite the flip. 

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That’s why Lonnie Quinn got the intermediate measurement which was higher. Add this up over a complete season and we can see how the official totals at NYC are lower than the surrounding stations. It’s also how that artificial under 1” record ran so long only at NYC and not any other local stations.

https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/biggest-snow-accumulation-totals-around-n-y-n-j-and-conn/

• Central Park: 3.2 inches officially, 3.9 inches as measured by CBS New York's Lonnie Quinn

 

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 1 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	701	2024-01-15
2	383	1998-03-21
3	381	1955-02-01

 

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 1 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	642	1973-12-16
2	386	1992-03-18
3	383	1998-03-21
4	378	2023-02-26

 

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 1 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	661	1973-12-15
2	378	2023-02-26
3	363	1955-01-14
4	351	1992-02-12

 

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 1 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	660	1974-01-03
2	378	2023-02-26
3	363	1989-01-05

We have the exact same issue here in Toronto. They lowball every storm at the airport location, which is our main reporting station. It's really problematic. For example, during the Feb. 2013 storm, YYZ only recorded 8.6" whereas every other station recorded 15-20". 

YYZ became operational in 1938. 2007-08 was officially about to be the snowiest winter on record at YYZ but they lowballed the March storm by 8" and we fell short of the record by 5" lol. 

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference: March clusters based on cases with an average ONI of +1.500C or above for December-February:

The CFSv2 currently favors a warmer version of Cluster 1. The single case with a negative PDO was March 1973 (Cluster 4).

 

72-73 has actually been a decent analog. Both very strong El Niño, both strong -PDO

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

72-73 has actually been a decent analog. Both very strong El Niño, both strong -PDO

I agree. The one big difference is that this winter has not seen a big Southeast snowstorm unlike 1972-73.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don.

Here is a snip of this decade so far for CPK. Our average is going to take a big hit.

Not as big as you might think.

This decade, as lousy as it's been so far, will be replacing 1991-2000 which only averaged 25.3 inches. The current 30 year average, 1991-2020, in the Park is 29.8. Replace that 25.3 with a 26 average 2021-2030 and their over 30 inches for average in 2001-2030. There's a long way to go.

Of course it would help a lot if they could ever get their sh!t together at the NWS regarding measurements at the Park. It's a long history of under measuring as most of us know, but the last 3-4 years has been especially horrendous.

[EastonSN+]

19 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not as big as you might think.

This decade, as lousy as it's been so far, will be replacing 1991-2000 which only averaged 25.3 inches. The current 30 year average, 1991-2020, in the Park is 29.8. Replace that 25.3 with a 26 average 2021-2030 and their over 30 inches for average in 2001-2030. There's a long way to go.

Of course it would help a lot if they could ever get their sh!t together at the NWS regarding measurements at the Park. It's a long history of under measuring as most of us know, but the last 3-4 years has been especially horrendous.

The 80s only averaged 19.74, which is crazy to think about.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

We have the exact same issue here in Toronto. They lowball every storm at the airport location, which is our main reporting station. It's really problematic. For example, during the Feb. 2013 storm, YYZ only recorded 8.6" whereas every other station recorded 15-20". 

YYZ became operational in 1938. 2007-08 was officially about to be the snowiest winter on record at YYZ but they lowballed the March storm by 8" and we fell short of the record by 5" lol. 

 

It's interesting how the airport codes never seem to match up to the names.  Whimsically, I wonder why the airport code wasn't XYZ instead....

 

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not as big as you might think.

This decade, as lousy as it's been so far, will be replacing 1991-2000 which only averaged 25.3 inches. The current 30 year average, 1991-2020, in the Park is 29.8. Replace that 25.3 with a 26 average 2021-2030 and their over 30 inches for average in 2001-2030. There's a long way to go.

Of course it would help a lot if they could ever get their sh!t together at the NWS regarding measurements at the Park. It's a long history of under measuring as most of us know, but the last 3-4 years has been especially horrendous.

It would be nice for NYC to hit a 30 year average of 30".... we were so close with the last 30 year average.  When was the last time they had a 30 year average of 30"....a hundred years ago?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. The one big difference is that this winter has not seen a big Southeast snowstorm unlike 1972-73.

Probably because 1972-73 was much colder than this winter Don?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

JFK's records go back to July 1948.  JFK picked up 18.0" on December 19, 1948.

LaGuardia is the only location in Queens that covers 1947-48.  Seasonal snowfall there was 63.6". 22.8" fell there during the December 26-27, 1947 snowstorm.

It's too bad we don't have a record from JFK from 1947-48.... likely all New York City locations received over 20 inches in that HECS.  There were no issues with temperatures or mixing with that storm from what I recall from the historical record (would you agree with this Don?) 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It would be nice for NYC to hit a 30 year average of 30".... we were so close with the last 30 year average.  When was the last time they had a 30 year average of 30"....a hundred years ago?

 

1891-1920 was the last time, 32.2 inches

1901-1930 was close, the same 29.8 inches as now. Of course that time period was much colder, the snow actually hung around in the city.

[psv88]

Under the radar was Westhampton hitting 4 this morning. Islip was 18, which is a pretty rural location itself. Crazy how much that area radiates. 

[donsutherland1]

On 2/11/2024 at 8:47 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Week ahead numbers:

There will be a large temperature range between Boston and New York City. Both Boston and New York City have high probabilities of seeing at least some snow. Boston could see a significant (6"+) snowfall.

Final numbers for February 12-18, 2024.

[donsutherland1]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's too bad we don't have a record from JFK from 1947-48.... likely all New York City locations received over 20 inches in that HECS.  There were no issues with temperatures or mixing with that storm from what I recall from the historical record (would you agree with this Don?) 

Here's a table of accumulations:

[donsutherland1]

A cooler pattern remains in place. This will not be an especially cold pattern, but it will be noticeably colder than the pattern that defined the first 10 days of the month.

Milder weather will likely begin to overspread the region by the middle of the week. Aside from a brief push of cooler air next weekend, temperatures should remain generally above normal once the milder pattern develops. The potential exists for the closing days of February to wind up much warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around February 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.62°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February.  

The SOI was -3.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.340 today.

On February 16 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.278 (RMM). The February 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.680 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.3° (3.4° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 40.1°-40.7°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. The probability that Winter 2023-2024 will have a mean temperature of 40.0° or above has increased in recent days. Should Winter 2023-2024 finish with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above, that would be the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with such warmth.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Cold day but did make it to 43 quickly down to 37

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Cold day but did make it to 43 quickly down to 37

and melted a few more inches of snow - now left with less then 2 inches and many bare spots

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Final numbers for February 12-18, 2024.

It's absolutely amazing with all the talk of NYC undermeasuring snow, they still beat all the other major east coast cities in snowfall this week.

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

and melted a few more inches of snow - now left with less then 2 inches and many bare spots

It’s pretty much spring at this point when it comes to snow cover. Sun is stronger and vaporizes snow pack even on cold days. 

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's a table of accumulations:

Thanks, Don... a bit of a historical note regarding JFK airport.

So, before it was called JFK, it was called Idlewild.

In an old Twilight Zone episode Idlewild is mentioned as the landing spot for a transatlantic flight that never makes it to its destination.

So since JFK/Idlewild's record keeping began in 1948, I wonder what its airport code was back then? Also, was 1948 a historically hot summer with 3-4 100 degree days and did JFK record a number of 100 degree days that summer? I remember reading somewhere that they might have.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Probably because 1972-73 was much colder than this winter Don?

 

Storm tracks also differed. However, the background climate was quite a bit colder then than it is now. In addition, the kind of marine heatwaves that skewed the overall patterns this winter were far less common at that time.

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, Don... a bit of a historical note regarding JFK airport.

So, before it was called JFK, it was called Idlewild.

In an old Twilight Zone episode Idlewild is mentioned as the landing spot for a transatlantic flight that never makes it to its destination.

So since JFK/Idlewild's record keeping began in 1948, I wonder what its airport code was back then? Also, was 1948 a historically hot summer with 3-4 100 degree days and did JFK record a number of 100 degree days that summer? I remember reading somewhere that they might have.

 

There were two 100-degree days during summer 1948 at what is now JFK Airport (both in August).

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There were two 100-degree days during summer 1948 at what is now JFK Airport (both in August).

Thanks Don, when did LGA and EWR's period of record begin?

 

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I always wondered how they measured back before 93.  I assume they labeled the measurements at CPK but they must have been getting done outside the NWS office at Rockefeller Plaza at the time

They would make the trip from 30 Rock over to Central Park to take the snowfall measurements before 1993. 
 

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/100-years-of-weather-observations-at-belvedere-castle-in-central-park#:~:text=On January 1%2C 1920 the,communications with the primary office.

The lack of space for weather observing equipment in Rockefeller Plaza resulted in the decision to make the Central Park observing site the official NYC observation and, on January 1, 1961 it became such. References from this point out for climatological records in New York City referenced the Park, not the Weather Bureau office in Lower Manhattan. In addition, the observation was automated, with the exception of sky cover and snowfall, and remoted to a display at 30 Rockefeller Plaza. Snow observations were taken by staff from the Weather Bureau who made the trek through the snow to Central Park to measure it.