donsutherland1 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 39 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: was 93 an El Nino? we had some piddly events then a bigger one in Feb, followed by the superstorm in Mid March. No. It was a neutral ENSO winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Upper level winds over 240kts really helping these planes there’s quite a few flying over 800mph 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Catamount was absolutely amazing today! Snow squalls putting down a few inches and great conditions overall. This week as been great and even next week in the mountains looks cold for the majority of it. I always am amazed at the huge variance in weather from the city to the Catskills and Berks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Numerous strong El Niño events have seen snow in March and have turned colder for a time in the leadup to mid-March (generally weeks 2 through 3). Of course, there's no guarantee that the upcoming March will evolve in such fashion though the monthly guidance hints at an almost canonical ENSO map. Week 2-3 sounds ideal as after the 21st our 1"+ events are very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said: Catamount was absolutely amazing today! Snow squalls putting down a few inches and great conditions overall. This week as been great and even next week in the mountains looks cold for the majority of it. I always am amazed at the huge variance in weather from the city to the Catskills and Berks. and the Poconos, snow squalls all day up there! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, pretty ridiculous heat in that part of the world keeps reloading the forcing leading to more jet extensions and warmth for us. I hope the warmth is temporary. One thing that seems apparent to me, and I think this principle can be applied to many places, is that we seem to be seeing a lot of micro trends. Like one region goes through a drought for a period of time then a wet period, etc. This WPAC warm pool really became an issue after the 2015 super Nino. Maybe a strong Nina, since we haven't seen one since 2010, might help cool it down? From a national perspective, we saw several cold/cool winters from 2006-07 to 2014-15 (2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15). Quite the opposite from 2015-16 to present. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Down to 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 hours ago, Snowstorms said: I hope the warmth is temporary. One thing that seems apparent to me, and I think this principle can be applied to many places, is that we seem to be seeing a lot of micro trends. Like one region goes through a drought for a period of time then a wet period, etc. This WPAC warm pool really became an issue after the 2015 super Nino. Maybe a strong Nina, since we haven't seen one since 2010, might help cool it down? From a national perspective, we saw several cold/cool winters from 2006-07 to 2014-15 (2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15). Quite the opposite from 2015-16 to present. 2006-07 started as the warmest winter on record though and only flipped in February That was a colder stretch but the really cold stretch started with 2002-03. we took a break from the cold in a few of those years. between that year and 2014-15 2006-07, 2007-08, 2011-12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 @bluewave The signal on the ensembles for an extremely warm last few days of February and especially early March is astounding. I haven’t seen a signal this strong since probably March, 2012 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 An asterisk will have to go next to the NYC snowfall measurements since they are our only major station still below 10” on the season. Our other major stations are all above 10”. The low snowfall measurements are the winter version of the low high temperatures during the warm season due to the vegetation too close to the ASOS creating deep shade that wasn’t there before the 90s. We generally did the best we could this season with the continuing record warmth and hostile Pacific patterns. While we are on track for another below normal snowfall season, it won’t be as bad a last year. Seasonal snowfall so far vs the seasonal average EWR…12.2….31.5 NYC….7.5*….29.8 LGA….10.5….29.8 JFK…..12.8….25.9 ISP…….10.9….31.8 BDR…..15.6….33.6 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Bottomed out at 16, definitely coldest of the season so far. Probably from all the nearby snowpack, right? Our inch and 2/3rds was mostly melted already, sadly. Definitely taking a glass half full approach overall, one of the warmest winters on record with extreme warmth in Canada and many marginal snow events in the area, and I’ve pulled down almost 11 inches in an area that doesn’t do well in marginal. Especially compared to last year, I’ll take it! And north CNJ northward has done impressively well these past two events, so it’s really nice to see in such a warm winter. I’d probably feel less optimistic if it were colder (even just average cold) and I missed on chance after chance, nah we’ve all done well to very well considering. And that extreme band that set up shop will be a very nice memory for a lot of people, that was absolutely wild! @Allsnow’s excitement was palpable and infectious! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: An asterisk will have to go next to the NYC snowfall measurements since they are our only major station still below 10” on the season. Our other major stations are all above 10”. The low snowfall measurements are the winter version of the low high temperatures during the warm season due to the vegetation too close to the ASOS creating deep shade that wasn’t there before the 90s. We generally did the best we could this season with the continuing record warmth and hostile Pacific patterns. While we are on track for another below normal snowfall season, it won’t be as bad a last year. Seasonal snowfall so far vs the seasonal average EWR…12.2….31.5 NYC….7.5*….29.8 LGA….10.5….29.8 JFK…..12.8….25.9 ISP…….10.9….31.8 BDR…..15.6….33.6 For comparison's sake, are both Boston and Philly also in double digits, Chris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: @bluewave The signal on the ensembles for an extremely warm last few days of February and especially early March is astounding. I haven’t seen a signal this strong since probably March, 2012 It still appears it won't last long...already ensembles beginning to flip things more +PNA or zonal at the end of their runs minus the GEFS which has been really lousy all winter anyway, we cannot sustain any pattern more than 10-14 days it seems and once again we probably won't here. We'll see if maybe after 3/25 we can flip things consistently mild but I do think we will have a lousy cold dreary stretch mid March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, bluewave said: An asterisk will have to go next to the NYC snowfall measurements since they are our only major station still below 10” on the season. Our other major stations are all above 10”. The low snowfall measurements are the winter version of the low high temperatures during the warm season due to the vegetation too close to the ASOS creating deep shade that wasn’t there before the 90s. We generally did the best we could this season with the continuing record warmth and hostile Pacific patterns. While we are on track for another below normal snowfall season, it won’t be as bad a last year. Seasonal snowfall so far vs the seasonal average EWR…12.2….31.5 NYC….7.5*….29.8 LGA….10.5….29.8 JFK…..12.8….25.9 ISP…….10.9….31.8 BDR…..15.6….33.6 This is the one event I think they clearly under measured. I could definitely make an argument for what they got in the previous event as EWR/LGA were close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 All it takes is for 1 or 2 more decent snowfalls for most to be at almost seasonal levels. Winter IS NOT over yet. Everyone should be thrilled with this winter compared to last year. I definitely think most get close to seasonal snowfall before winter is over. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: For comparison's sake, are both Boston and Philly also in double digits, Chris? Boston is doing really poorly so far compared to their total seasonal average and Philly much better. seasonal snowfall so far vs average seasonal snowfall Boston….9.7……49.2 Philly…….11.2…..23.1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Week ahead numbers: There are only low prospects of snowfall in the I-95 Corridor. The national blend of models is warmer than the ECMWF weeklies. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Boston is doing really poorly so far compared to their total seasonal average and Philly much better. seasonal snowfall so far vs average seasonal snowfall Boston….9.7……49.2 Philly…….11.2…..23.1 The airport and downtown has been shafted in every event somehow it seems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: @bluewave The signal on the ensembles for an extremely warm last few days of February and especially early March is astounding. I haven’t seen a signal this strong since probably March, 2012 Good morning S19. Apparently AccuWeather long range agrees with you, at least for the moment. Stay well, as always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 24/11 with some light wind. Cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 13 this morning, forecast low was 23. Fresh snowpack FTW 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The airport and downtown has been shafted in every event somehow it seems They have pretty much been in the same boat as us with only 1 snowfall season out of the last 6 with above normal snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: Boston is doing really poorly so far compared to their total seasonal average and Philly much better. seasonal snowfall so far vs average seasonal snowfall Boston….9.7……49.2 Philly…….11.2…..23.1 wow JFK will beat Boston at this rate, has that ever happened before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: For comparison's sake, are both Boston and Philly also in double digits, Chris? Boston: 9.7"; Philadelphia: 11.2" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 48 minutes ago, suzook said: All it takes is for 1 or 2 more decent snowfalls for most to be at almost seasonal levels. Winter IS NOT over yet. Everyone should be thrilled with this winter compared to last year. I definitely think most get close to seasonal snowfall before winter is over. While I dont believe we will get anywhere close to seasonal averages, it's definitely MUCH better than last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Boston: 9.7"; Philadelphia: 11.2" This may be the first time ever JFK will have more snowfall than Boston for the entire season lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: It still appears it won't last long...already ensembles beginning to flip things more +PNA or zonal at the end of their runs minus the GEFS which has been really lousy all winter anyway, we cannot sustain any pattern more than 10-14 days it seems and once again we probably won't here. We'll see if maybe after 3/25 we can flip things consistently mild but I do think we will have a lousy cold dreary stretch mid March. I find it intriguing when the pattern changes themselves follow patterns and happen during the same weeks each month. If that's the case we could have another colder stretch between March 13 and March 23.... and that could mean perhaps one or two more chances for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: This may be the first time ever JFK will have more snowfall than Boston for the entire season lol. I thought it 03-04 JFK beat them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I thought it 03-04 JFK beat them Maybe, although JFK had less than Central Park in that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Low temperature here was 16.7⁰. Snow depth =6” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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